I'm trying to model a 20+ tenant flex-office complex and the firm I'm at this summer doesn't have Argus - it's not been a fun day. Essentially, I'm having a hard time getting a dynamic Excel model because of the reasons that Argus was created (i.e., intelligent renewals & differing reimbursement schedules), the reimbursements aren't particularly complex, but there aren't any NNNs either.
Any other monkeys modeled something similar successfully?
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I've had to do this before - I'd send you a model but I don't have it any longer (or if I do don't remember where I put it). The easiest way to do this is have an input section with different renewal probabilities, and then a dynamic lookup (Vlookup, Hlookup, or offset&match) which ties to tenant expiration dates and then term lengths of 2nd gen+ leasing/MLA's. This will take care of your weighted averages for downtime, absorption/turnover, free rent, GV, leasing costs, etc. Then for the reimbursements, you can just set up the various structures and then create a pick-list on a separate sheet that will auto-calc that DRM and hit it with the PRS of that tenant. Obviously, this will get more complex if there's something screwy in the leases, but usually office reimbursements aren't as nasty as retail. Then you can just do an if statement when the tenants roll based on their expiration date and then have the new MLA recovery structure kick-in. The less variation you have in the MLA recovery structures the easier this will be.
Thanks, great post.
This is essentially what I ended up doing. Still wish that we had Argus - any model with several quadruple-nested if statements makes me nervous, regardless of how many times I've audited it.
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