Title: Startup vs. Bulge Bracket: Which Path Maximizes Long-Term Earnings?
Hi all,
I’m facing a major career decision and would really appreciate your insights on which path offers the best long-term earnings potential. I’m currently working at a bulge bracket bank with a background in Front Office Sales & Trading and an engineering degree. I’m considering leaving to either start my own venture or pursue startup opportunities.
While the corporate role provides a steady salary, bonuses, and clear progression, a startup path could offer significant equity upside—albeit with higher risk. Some studies, such as this one, suggest that startup employees may have lower long-term earnings compared to their counterparts at established firms, which adds complexity to the decision.
Given my background, I’m curious whether my experience in FO S&T and engineering would substantially improve my chances of a successful startup exit, or if the inherent risks of the startup world would still make a corporate role the better financial bet over the long term.
What do you all think? Which option—pursuing startups or remaining at a major bank—has historically yielded the best long-term earnings for someone with a background like mine? I’d love to hear any real-world experiences, metrics, or models you’ve used to evaluate this trade-off.
Thanks in advance for your input!
Here's your answer
If the startup becomes a massive $100bn company, then you're rich
If it crashes and burns, then joining a BB instead would have maximized your LT earnings
Nobody can predict accurately if a startup is going to become a behemoth, so make your choices accordingly and stop looking for a certainty that no one can provide
Hope that helps
You’re right. However that doesn’t say anything about what the chance of starting the next $100bn company is. Let’s say that I’ve got a really good idea that I think is likely to change the world. The probability of actually being able to execute on that idea is still probably much closer to 0 than 1.
But you don’t need the next $100bn idea to be more successful than you would be in mainstream finance. You can do that with a company worth $10-100M
Don't start a company if you're optimizing for $.
I can do all the math for you but I think it comes across a lot more clearly with a parable:
Once upon a time there was a monkey and a fish. Both got a job working in the jungle picking fruits. The monkey easily climbed the branches and navigated through the layers of jungle canopy. The fish could barely breath in that environment, it felt suffocating and could only grab the low hanging fruit that already fell to the ground. All day that fish was eyeing the river while their monkey friend kept swinging through the trees with ease. The fish yearned to swim in the free flowing currents and find their own path to opportunity. Besides, the fish hated fruits.
One day the fish quit picking fruits and decided to jump into the river. Immediately it was a breath of fresh water, invigorating, but terrifying since there was a strong current. Slowly the fish started getting used to the environment, and realized how much better suited they were for the constant chaos of the water. They learned how to navigate currents, avoid rocks, and even seek out food that wasn't fruit.
While the fish was exploring the world of water, the monkey had been working the whole time, accumulating more and more fruits from bigger and bigger trees. The monkey got stronger, was able to direct other monkeys to pick fruit for them. Every day the monkey got closer to the top of the jungle's tallest trees. Sometimes the monkey would think about the fish. Maybe they should've gone into the river too? Nah, the monkey was terrified of swimming and liked the structure and predictability of the stable trees. Besides, where would they get fruit in the water?
The fish had gotten bigger during their journey through the river and they heard from others about the vast ocean. It was a place of boundless opportunity with nearly limitless depths. The fish navigated tributaries and eventually got to a massive delta that lead to the ocean. Opportunity awaits! The fish took it's first strokes into the wide open ocean and was promptly swallowed by a much larger fish, ending their hopes and dreams in one bite.
Moral of the story: You're a monkey, stick to climbing trees for bananas.
decent parable
If you are thinking about startups in terms of expected value and aren't almost autistically focused on a certain niche in business/STEM you don't have what it takes to create a startup, let alone one that will make you life-changing money. Besides, it is a terrible time to start a startup relative to 20 years ago if you aren't an AI scientist or someone with significant expertise in energy/defensetech.
May I ask why energy could be a great niche for entrepreneurs?
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