Comments (24)

Dec 13, 2008

gloomy

Dec 13, 2008

cool visualization by the way

Dec 13, 2008

Shaped kinda like the rectal probe most bankers are feeling on the roof of their mouth about now...

Dec 13, 2008

Why is that gloomy; sometimes the market goes up and sometime the market goes down but more often than not the market goes up. We had an awful year this year and we will have awful years again, but I think we will still have more good years than bad

Dec 13, 2008
stevenbn:

Why is that gloomy; sometimes the market goes up and sometime the market goes down but more often than not the market goes up. We had an awful year this year and we will have awful years again, but I think we will still have more good years than bad

I'm gonna take a guess and say you didn't lose your job or have your income chopped in half while still having working 100 hours a week.

A 10% drop here and there is expected... a 50%+ drop is a little more serious than basic cyclical economics.

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Dec 13, 2008

It's gloomy because this isn't your typical (-30 to -10) down year. -50 makes this year somewhat of an anomalously bad year.

Dec 13, 2008

and a lot of the data is coming from the 19th century.
our economy and markets have undergone fundamental changes since then - so might be more helpful to look at only 20th century or its latter half.

Dec 13, 2008

The fundamental laws of supply and demand haven't changed for thousands of years.

But it's this kind of thinking:

neutralnuke:

and a lot of the data is coming from the 19th century.
our economy and markets have undergone fundamental changes since then - so might be more helpful to look at only 20th century or its latter half.

that got us into the present mess in the first place.

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Dec 13, 2008

look at 1931.... then 1932 was down 10% but then 1933 was up 60%....

so i'm assuming 09 will be mediocre to positive and then 2010 will be sweet just looking at history.

Dec 13, 2008

yeahhh baby look at those fat tails! Actually not quite as fat as I would have orginally expected because the mean should be somewhere to the right of the black line. Probably around 7.5%. S&P was created in 1957 so im not sure if this is using DOW returns prior to that. Dow was created in 1896 so again im not sure where the data is coming from. Still neat.

This still has been a lost decade for the stock market. Buy and hold, the most popular investment strategy of the last bull market (1982-2000) simply fell apart and I will continue to call it a suckers game. Sure there have been some winners but on average Time value of money didnt do its job over the past 8 years.... In fact its under water for the major indices.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.

Dec 27, 2008
trade4size:

yeahhh baby look at those fat tails! Actually not quite as fat as I would have orginally expected because the mean should be somewhere to the right of the black line. Probably around 7.5%. S&P was created in 1957 so im not sure if this is using DOW returns prior to that. Dow was created in 1896 so again im not sure where the data is coming from. Still neat.

This still has been a lost decade for the stock market. Buy and hold, the most popular investment strategy of the last bull market (1982-2000) simply fell apart and I will continue to call it a suckers game. Sure there have been some winners but on average Time value of money didnt do its job over the past 8 years.... In fact its under water for the major indices.

Yeah, buy and hold is dead. I completely agree! Why would you every buy stock and pretend like a company is behind it and its not just a speculative vehicle? Why would you ever not buy on monday and sell on thursday? Clearly the company changes from monday to thursday. And why would you ever not use technical analysis? Clearly the PAST price indicates something about the FUTURE price. Trading is the way.

Dec 13, 2008

What if John Kerry had been president the last 4 years? Penny for your thoughts

Dec 13, 2008
laxn103:

What if John Kerry had been president the last 4 years? Penny for your thoughts

What does that have anything to do with the current calamity? Take a look at the situation... it's broad.

Dec 13, 2008

Its happened before it will happen again. It sucks, but we will get over it

Dec 13, 2008

I posted this on another thread but it applies here as well. New article from the Economist summarizing IB's current status and future.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?...

Take it for all it's worth.

Dec 14, 2008

not very pretty... but at least we can expect a better year.

Dec 14, 2008
youngmoney:

not very pretty... but at least we can expect a better year.

Based on what, exactly? I'm dying to hear this...

Dec 14, 2008

will things get better before it gets worse

Dec 14, 2008

But does that mean it will be easier or harder to buck a negative trend? On the one hand, the (supposed) ability to better manage risk should create more positives than not. Like that worked...While on the other hand, global interconnectivity creates a snowball situation (which we have certainly seen thus far). Note that the Great Depression didn't touch the fledgling and very isolated Soviet Union - creating an opportunity to ramp up industrial production. Another consideration for this graphical representation is that several of these growth figures were achieved in a wartime economy. So between the economic consequences of global conflict and the rapid pace of technological development, it is difficult to compare years on an apples to apples basis. But still an interesting depiction. http://deltahedged.com/

Dec 27, 2008

If your going to mock me at least try not to sound like your finance professor. Look what those fundamentals did... more like funnymentals. If you want to argue this I would be happy to so just pm me.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.

Dec 28, 2008
trade4size:

If your going to mock me at least try not to sound like your finance professor. Look what those fundamentals did... more like funnymentals. If you want to argue this I would be happy to so just pm me.

trade4size- you're an idiot. just because you don't understand the basic concepts of fundamental investing doesn't make the entire investment philosophy wrong. perhaps you should learn something about it before you discount it.

Dec 28, 2008

you need to learn the difference between "your" and "you're".......... take an english class or something.

Dec 28, 2008
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"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.