Comments (24)

 
Dec 13, 2008 - 10:46am

Why is that gloomy; sometimes the market goes up and sometime the market goes down but more often than not the market goes up. We had an awful year this year and we will have awful years again, but I think we will still have more good years than bad

 
Dec 13, 2008 - 8:48pm

stevenbn:
Why is that gloomy; sometimes the market goes up and sometime the market goes down but more often than not the market goes up. We had an awful year this year and we will have awful years again, but I think we will still have more good years than bad

I'm gonna take a guess and say you didn't lose your job or have your income chopped in half while still having working 100 hours a week.

A 10% drop here and there is expected... a 50%+ drop is a little more serious than basic cyclical economics.

 
Dec 13, 2008 - 12:46pm

The fundamental laws of supply and demand haven't changed for thousands of years.

But it's this kind of thinking:

neutralnuke:
and a lot of the data is coming from the 19th century.
our economy and markets have undergone fundamental changes since then - so might be more helpful to look at only 20th century or its latter half.

that got us into the present mess in the first place.

Thanks for playing. Please try again.

 
Dec 13, 2008 - 12:45pm

look at 1931.... then 1932 was down 10% but then 1933 was up 60%....

so i'm assuming 09 will be mediocre to positive and then 2010 will be sweet just looking at history.

 
Dec 13, 2008 - 1:21pm

yeahhh baby look at those fat tails! Actually not quite as fat as I would have orginally expected because the mean should be somewhere to the right of the black line. Probably around 7.5%. S&P was created in 1957 so im not sure if this is using DOW returns prior to that. Dow was created in 1896 so again im not sure where the data is coming from. Still neat.

This still has been a lost decade for the stock market. Buy and hold, the most popular investment strategy of the last bull market (1982-2000) simply fell apart and I will continue to call it a suckers game. Sure there have been some winners but on average Time value of money didnt do its job over the past 8 years.... In fact its under water for the major indices.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
 
Dec 27, 2008 - 11:00pm

trade4size:
yeahhh baby look at those fat tails! Actually not quite as fat as I would have orginally expected because the mean should be somewhere to the right of the black line. Probably around 7.5%. S&P was created in 1957 so im not sure if this is using DOW returns prior to that. Dow was created in 1896 so again im not sure where the data is coming from. Still neat.

This still has been a lost decade for the stock market. Buy and hold, the most popular investment strategy of the last bull market (1982-2000) simply fell apart and I will continue to call it a suckers game. Sure there have been some winners but on average Time value of money didnt do its job over the past 8 years.... In fact its under water for the major indices.

 

Yeah, buy and hold is dead. I completely agree! Why would you every buy stock and pretend like a company is behind it and its not just a speculative vehicle? Why would you ever not buy on monday and sell on thursday? Clearly the company changes from monday to thursday. And why would you ever not use technical analysis? Clearly the PAST price indicates something about the FUTURE price. Trading is the way.

 

 
Dec 14, 2008 - 11:36pm

But does that mean it will be easier or harder to buck a negative trend? On the one hand, the (supposed) ability to better manage risk should create more positives than not. Like that worked...While on the other hand, global interconnectivity creates a snowball situation (which we have certainly seen thus far). Note that the Great Depression didn't touch the fledgling and very isolated Soviet Union - creating an opportunity to ramp up industrial production. Another consideration for this graphical representation is that several of these growth figures were achieved in a wartime economy. So between the economic consequences of global conflict and the rapid pace of technological development, it is difficult to compare years on an apples to apples basis. But still an interesting depiction. http://deltahedged.com/

 
Dec 27, 2008 - 11:21pm

If your going to mock me at least try not to sound like your finance professor. Look what those fundamentals did... more like funnymentals. If you want to argue this I would be happy to so just pm me.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
 
Dec 28, 2008 - 2:40am

trade4size:
If your going to mock me at least try not to sound like your finance professor. Look what those fundamentals did... more like funnymentals. If you want to argue this I would be happy to so just pm me.

trade4size- you're an idiot. just because you don't understand the basic concepts of fundamental investing doesn't make the entire investment philosophy wrong. perhaps you should learn something about it before you discount it.

 
Dec 28, 2008 - 4:53am
"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
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