CAPEX Forecasts
I am doing a Valuation and I want to know a method that I can consistently use to estimate CAPEX.
Currently, I either use ratios (Fixed Asset Turns) to forecast, or I just keep CAPEX relatively constant if the company is stable. However, this sometimes does not yield sensible results, and it is sometimes difficult to tell whether a company is planning to expand or not through my research.
Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
PS: I have the following resources at hand: Financial Statements (BS, IS, SoCF) Trusty ol' Bloomberg Terminal
Also, I'm new so lmk if this thread belongs elsewhere in the forums.
We think of CapEx as discretionary and not. Try to find a very "normal" year. If possible find a no growth year and see what the CapEx was. Use that years CapEx to EBITDA to estimate future years. Add additional CapEx if you are growing the company in your model.
Agree with BC. CapEX increases before sales can increase dramatically because the company needs production capacity. The higher growth rate is only temporary so try to find a couple of "normal" years where the following years did not have large sales growth and "expansion" years and compare that increase in CapEx with the following increase in sales the next year. You may need to give more than one year between the increase in CapEx and the increase in sales.
Does the company make aircraft or kazoos?
Thanks for the help so far.
What should I do for a company like Goldman Sachs, where there are not a whole lot of fixed assets? (I know they have some buildings and some computer hardware stuff, but they are not manufacturing.)
Look at MD&A. If they mention anything about CAPEX, then use those #s.
The CAPEX and EBITDA idea seems interesting. Can someone please elaborate on how that works?
I have EBITDA forecasts, just not CAPEX.
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