Coronavirus - How long will this go on?

WillytheGent's picture
Rank: Baboon | 131

Already bored working from home on day 4. Firm said 3 weeks for now, but expect it to be longer. When does everyone think life will go back to normal?

Comments (206)

Mar 16, 2020

Nobody can say for certain. We have to see how this grows over the coming week(s) for a clearer picture.

"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary." - Nassim Taleb

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Mar 16, 2020
WillytheGent:

Already bored working from home on day 4. Firm said 3 weeks for now, but expect it to be longer. When does everyone think life will go back to normal?

I doubt it will be resolved in 3 weeks. The economic impact is going to be brutal.

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

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Mar 19, 2020

Me too, I doubt it. Let's just see after 3 weeks

Mar 16, 2020

Vaccine testing going on as we speak. Let's hope this is peak panic, but you never know

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Mar 16, 2020

At the earliest, I think we're looking at September/October. Assuming that it peaks in the next 8 weeks, followed by another 4-6 weeks of added precaution, then about 6-8 weeks before everything gets back to what feels like "Normal". Realistically, I have no fucking clue.

Mar 16, 2020

Vaccine won't be ready for nearly a year. A doubledip is what I'm most worried about.

  • Analyst 1 in HF - Event
Mar 16, 2020

I've already had two IBD job offers gipped from me.... "near-term uncertainty"
Can this virus fuck off

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Mar 17, 2020

you're an analyst at a HF and you're trying to get a job at an IB? Why?

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  • Analyst 1 in HF - Event
Mar 17, 2020

amigo es porque no tengo una trabajo con el hedge fund. Yo necesito trabajo y vivir las oportunidades con el banco de investmentos

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Funniest
Mar 17, 2020

pinche virus

WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) | My Linkedin

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Mar 21, 2020

I feel you...what a terrible time...

Apr 1, 2020

Coming from a non target, I spent months aggressively networking and landed final round interviews 3 weeks ago. It was for a BB ECM team and they haven't got back to me yet.

Most Helpful
Mar 16, 2020

I had an interesting discussion with a friend on whether the total shutdown of our country and the catastrophic economic damage we are inflicting on ourselves is worth the price.

The friend posed the following hypothetical. Let's say you fell into a coma 3 months ago and just woke up. I tell you that the U.S. government has imposed travel bans on China and Europe, state and local governments have shut down gatherings of people in public forums such as restaurants/bars/clubs/stores, and live professional sports matches and concerts have all been postponed. In addition, Americans were self-quarantining themselves and hoarding food and supplies, resulting in basic materials not being available in stores.

The question: what would be your guess on what just transpired? I answered that given that the U.S. did not take such actions even during WWII, Cuban Missile Crisis, or aftermath of 9/11 attacks, I would think that we were in the midst of an apocalyptic nuclear war with China or a fucking asteroid struck the Earth. Short of that, it is hard to fathom what would justify this.

So then the follow-up question I have been contemplating is whether or not the Wuhan virus merits such course of action, the intentional sabotaging of the economy, and harming countless people, including blue collar workers and students. The second order cultural, social, and psychological impact will also be immense.

But answering this question is immensely difficult because of unknown variables. To put it this way, anyone in finance knows that a model can be mathematically correct but useless if its inputs and assumptions are either wrong or unrealistic.

The structure of a model usually takes the following chronological sequence: raw data>inputs and assumptions>calculations>output>analysis and recommendation.

In reading the coverage of the Wuhan virus, many are justifying the current course of action by invoking mortality rates, contagion rate, and possible overwhelming of hospitals, but I am not convinced that their inputs and assumptions are correct.

First, the mortality rate of 1-3% that is circulating in public, is based on a denominator of KNOWN infections, not the TRUE infections. We know that most people who are infected will either have asymptomatic or mild symptoms, akin to a standard cold or flu. There are also others who are infected but simply don't know yet. Thus, the denominator that is currently being used is simply too low, meaning that the mortality rate is too high. Without knowing the true infection number, we don't know the true mortality rate.

Second, amongst those who do die, what % fall into the category of seniors and/or those with preexisting conditions, especially respiratory ailments such as asthma, tuberculosis, and lung cancer?

Third, we need to know the % of infected non-senior and healthy people who do not have preexisting preconditions, who end up having serious symptoms that require actual ICU care (as opposed to a regular flu). I have not seen reliable numbers yet, but from what I have read so far, that % is fairly low.

Fourth, what is the average time required for a healthy person to develop immunity to the virus once infected?

Once we know the true figures, these can be used as reliable inputs and assumptions in a Wuhan virus impact model. After calculations, we can have an output that actually tells us meaningful information that can then be used to make appropriate policy recommendations. For instance, we can do sensitivity analysis where for a given number of people in the U.S. who are infected, we can forecast the number of deaths, their median age and conditions, number of ICU patients who survive, etc. This would allow us to plan for appropriate ICU beds and ventilators and more importantly, assess whether the resulting impact justifies our economic shutdown.

I am neither condoning nor opposing the shutdowns. I am simply laying out a logical structure for thinking through this and raising a critique of how people are conceptualizing this problem.

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Mar 17, 2020

This is a great way of looking at the situation. So how long do you think this will go on for?

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Mar 17, 2020

Are you asking about the virus or the shutdown of businesses? No idea on the virus, but scientists seem to agree that there is a seasonal impact, with the virus' potency declining significantly when the weather warms up but quite possibly making a resurgence during the winter. At that point, however, the hope is that people will be immune by then, and we will have enough data to make good policy decisions.

The impact of temperature is interesting. I have noticed that the areas that have been hardest hit by the Wuhan virus (Hubei province in China, Iran, northern Italy, Seattle) have average Jan-Feb temperatures of 40-50 degrees Fahrenheit. Obviously, causality does not equal correlation, but perhaps the virus thrives within a certain temperature range, and both freezing and warm temperatures are bad for its survival. If this really were the case, we would be foolish to not allocate more resources to areas within that temperature range.

However, what worries me more than the virus itself is the local and state government response and the absolute hysteria that has gripped us. First, I don't think those decision makers have fully come to grips with just how devastating the economic shutdown is on the lives of average Americans. "Better to be safe than sorry" is a fine premise when we are talking about trivial matters such as getting ready for an exam or a job interview, but with consequences of this magnitude, we need to be more serious about the cost-benefit analysis and just how much pain we are willing to tolerate. Are we willing to crash our economy and cause major social/cultural disruptions in order to spare some elderly sick people? That may sound harsh, and yes, life is intrinsically valuable, but those are the types of tough decisions that we have to weigh. Second, I am also disturbed that government leaders have not stated what quantitative metrics they would use in deciding whether to reopen public venues. Thus far, it seems like they are using arbitrary timelines and going off of public sentiments rather than actual metrics. This is dangerous, as it stokes further panic, and creates a dangerous precedent for government intervention that can be replicated in the future.

Overall, I am ok with banning large gatherings (e.g. pro sports games, concerts, rallies, parades, etc.). I am far less sanguine about shutting down all public venues such as restaurants/stores/gyms. The latter is borderline fascistic, reminiscent of China rather than a free country.

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Mar 17, 2020

If I may add - the 1-3% mortality rate is based on Known AND Tested infections. Many countries have given up testing people with mild symptoms (80% of people with symptoms - those that can stay at home), and that there is depending on estimates (20-40%) - call it 30% of people that do not experience any symptoms. So just based on that the actual mortality rate should be much lower - you can do the back of the envelope maths.

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Mar 17, 2020
Pan European Monkey:

If I may add - the 1-3% mortality rate is based on Known AND Tested infections. Many countries have given up testing people with mild symptoms (80% of people with symptoms - those that can stay at home), and that there is depending on estimates (20-40%) - call it 30% of people that do not experience any symptoms. So just based on that the actual mortality rate should be much lower - you can do the back of the envelope maths.

On the other hand, if we fail at flattening the curve and the medical system gets overrun, people who otherwise would have survived with proper medical care will die. At that point, the effective mortality rate will eclipse the actual mortality rate of the virus.

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Mar 17, 2020

The problem is that this situation requires action now (better still, 8 weeks ago).

We'll know more in 2, 4, 8 weeks, and can adjust course.

Mar 17, 2020

What in the heck? First, why would people be self-isolated or quarantined if we were in a nuclear war with China? An infectious disease is essentially the only thing that warrants this response, and it's duly.

Second, there is an interesting argument to be made for the total harm caused by shutting down stores and businesses, and whether its magnitude is larger than the impact of the virus itself. However, one cannot take themselves seriously while simultaneously thinking the correct response is to actually do nothing. In that scenario, Hosptials would definitely be overrun, the healthcare system would consequentally collapse, and in all likelyhood the economic system soon after.

Either way you cut it, we're fucked. But the best thing to do is to fight the virus as fast as possible, and along the way hopefully kill the least possible. The best way to do that is almost exactly what we're currently doing, so kudos to senior American leadership right now. If only they'd done it two weeks ago.

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Mar 18, 2020

this is very thoughtful. regarding denominator, couldn't one argue the death rate is lagged (and the deaths are growing at high rates) so mortality could still be high? just playing devil's advocate

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Mar 18, 2020
FCFE:

the intentional sabotaging of the economy

Who is intentionally sabotaging the economy?

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Controversial
Mar 18, 2020

stop referring to it as the "Wuhan virus"

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Apr 1, 2020

How about the "CCP-oopsie"?

That might be confusing though, they've got a lot of those... and oopsie implies they unintentionally tried to bury the details and mistakenly punished their early whistleblowers.

Mar 20, 2020

I think additional information we would need to make a sound calculation would be the effects of the pandemic on people who get it and survive, but have lasting damage and thus decreased quality of life as a result. See this article, which indicates that some researchers believe Coronavirus patients who recover can be left with damaged lungs and may struggle to breathe when they walk.

Even if we conclude that we are willing to let large swathes of the population (largely elderly) die from COVID-19 to save the economy, which by the way I vehemently disagree with, we would have to take into consideration the longer term impact on the economy from the large population that catches it, develops immunity, but may have shorter life spans / lower quality of life as a result.

I would be remiss to miss this opportunity to state that the above research also indicates that people who think "oh I'm low risk, I'll just get it and be immune" should reconsider. You may survive, but your lungs could be irreversibly damaged.

Mar 25, 2020

No one can model a pandemic and run a few sensitivities on it. A pandemic isn't a simple CF model. How out of your depth can you be to think that this can be nailed with a few back of the envelope exercises, really? You have expert scientists saying that this is extremely tough to predict, and here comes some finance guy with a back of the envelope ready to solve the issue.

Look, you can do as many sensitivities as you'd like. Bottom line, what you can observe is that Italy, one of the most developed nations in the world, has had its ICU's overwhelmed by the influx of cases. Same thing in Spain. The issue is that ICU capacity goes underwater, which means you'll turn away all patients, including people who need ICU support but aren't infected.

A population that figures out that this disease will cut access to life-saving healthcare will freak out under any circumstance. Which is why the majority opts to self-isolate before they're told to do so by the government. On top of that, who wants to expose their elderly loved ones to a potentially deadly disease? That alone would throw people into self-isolating.

All of this just to say, that at some point people will voluntarily quarantine. Whether the government declares it or not. Especially in the US where healthcare is a product, you'll see what happens when this thing hits the country's major urban centers properly.

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Mar 26, 2020

Good to read however it is not Wuhan virus. It is called COVID19. Beside there are many other variables not being considered. Virus has a incubation period up to 14 days which mean for a infection person w/o any symptoms can spread to others.

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Mar 17, 2020

I think the big factor will be whether the hospital system breaks . . whether we've flattened the curve.

If the next 4 weeks indicate that we likely succeeded in flattening the curve - ie we see hospitals are mostly able to treat the most vulnerable and not hearing horror stories about how the doc had to let a 60 year old die to save a 40 year old - then I think that positive news will give way to plans to return to normal life. Would still mean another 1-2 months of some distancing but there would be a realization that we succeeded and we wouldn't have to speculate about how the virus will change our lives forever. We would just work our way through it and plan on a normal life by summer (and yes 2nd wave of virus coming in winter but much easier with experience). In that scenario maybe you're back at the office in 4-6 weeks with some additional precautions.

If the hospital system breaks I think there will be lots more panic that will give way to lots more wealth destruction in the stock market and other ripple effects. Death rates will be higher, fear will be higher, which will mean a prolonged shuttering of activity and resulting unemployment. That will give way to a prolonged recession because even after the virus clears you will have so many who are behind on savings or lost jobs permanently. In that scenario, you may still be back at work in a couple months but it won't be back to normal because we will be living in severe recession conditions.

To me it's akin to the levees with Hurricane Katrina. The hurricane was going to be bad, but people had seen hurricanes before. But when the levees broke and flooded everything, it took the recovery from months to years

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Mar 17, 2020

The UK COVID-19 Response Team estimates 18 months of this restrictive activity to fully suppress the virus (else we risk it respreading). This is the worst case scenario in my mind and would wreck the global economy. // https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/...

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Mar 17, 2020

18 months of this kind of restriction would completely cripple society, cause a second Great Depression, and probably the kind of unrest that leads to violent political change and war. We can't afford to do that over a virus that is 1/10th as deadly as smallpox. At a certain point, you have to just isolate the vulnerable population so that the rest of the world can try to carry on to the extent possible.

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Mar 17, 2020
BobMerkin:

18 months of this kind of restriction would completely cripple society, cause a second Great Depression, and probably the kind of unrest that leads to violent political change and war. We can't afford to do that over a virus that is 1/10th as deadly as smallpox. At a certain point, you have to just isolate the vulnerable population so that the rest of the world can try to carry on to the extent possible.

Agreed. It will never get to this point unless the disease mutates and starts killing in the double digit percents. 18 months of quarantine would basically destroy the modern world. That ain't happening over this.

Mar 17, 2020

Nobody knows and if anyone claims to know, you know he's a fraud.

Mar 17, 2020

Most companies are saying 6-8 weeks minimum, some are estimating this goes on until August. This won't be over soon.

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Mar 17, 2020

Totally a crystal ball / pure speculation, but my guess is at least 1 months from now but max I'd expect is 2 months before firms need to start ratcheting back up productivity. Who knows though

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Mar 17, 2020

My prediction is that in a few weeks when there is a realization that this isn't the Bubonic plague and when businesses realize that they are a month or 2 from bankruptcy unless they open, businesses will start opening again and people will defy the "bans" and quarantines. Society won't stand for this. And people will die as a result. Every person matters and every death a tragedy and there is no "moral" price on a life, but there is an upper limit to the economic value of a life. People and businesses simply won't accept imprisonment and destitution to save the life of a faceless, unknown person. Frankly, I'm not sure they should. But it's not my call. It's a call that 330 million individuals will have to make

Mar 18, 2020
real_Skankhunt42:

My prediction is that in a few weeks when there is a realization that this isn't the Bubonic plague and when businesses realize that they are a month or 2 from bankruptcy unless they open, businesses will start opening again and people will defy the "bans" and quarantines. Society won't stand for this. And people will die as a result. Every person matters and every death a tragedy and there is no "moral" price on a life, but there is an upper limit to the economic value of a life. People and businesses simply won't accept imprisonment and destitution to save the life of a faceless, unknown person. Frankly, I'm not sure they should. But it's not my call. It's a call that 330 million individuals will have to make

I'm going to make a thread about this, but I want to emphasize how much response matters as well as the findings from the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, and Imperial College London along with
the historical context

of the results. The group modeled different scenarios and extrapolated the impact each would have on America.

  1. The first scenario would be treating COVID-19 like the flu, a strategy advocated for on right-wing media for some time now up until a few days ago. In this scenario, "80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II."
  2. The second scenario is the mitigation strategy - quarantining people with the virus, social distancing, "flattening the curve," all to avoid overwhelming the hospitals. "And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
  3. The third scenario is the suppression strategy, or "shut everything down." This has been decried as authoritarian or un-American by some. To date, this has been implemented haphazardly across the country, if at all. The thing is - "The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear. But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen."

Finally, there is the time period - which is approximately 18 months until vaccines are created, tested, confirmed safe, and widely distributed.

Society won't stand for this? Society has the option of killing 4 million Americans, 1.1-2 million Americans, or a few thousand Americans. Society has the option of a death toll at 2/3 of the holocaust, two Civil Wars, or less than the seasonal flu.

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Mar 18, 2020

Well this ruined my day. Sounds like at least a year of this. Fuck.

Mar 18, 2020

I appreciate the effort in writing these comments. The choice is easy but at the same time, shutting everything down would likely result in a collapse of the economy and stock market. With the measures we have already taken, we will still probably experience a deep recession and very large losses in stocks (50-75% possibly). If we shut everything down, the economic/market environment might be similar to what we saw in the great depression.

Mar 18, 2020

In somewhat positive news, I've been following the discussion of the report online and found this response from Bill Gates of all people on it.

Bill Gates:

Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this.

I am personally highly suspicious of any data from China, but I also trust Bill Gates to be a bit more dialed in than I am. Don't let your day be ruined, @WillytheGent

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Mar 18, 2020

I will make sure to bookmark your insane commentary for future reference. I'm just getting to your comments now, and everyone with sense knew that their assumptions of millions of deaths was insane. Hell, it looks like we probably already have a known cure

Mar 26, 2020
real_Skankhunt42:

It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined.

Wut

Array

  • Director in Other
Apr 1, 2020

The medical forecasting models are based on incomplete data and flawed assumptions. They have rapidly winded down from the high forecast of fatalities in just a week. Politicians are incentivized to insert more government power into people's lives and the economy. many are using tax payers money for this absurdly expensive bailout package and implement so called orders.
. If you want this country to become a socialist country, you should move out of the US! Try living in Russia or China. peoples lives

Mar 17, 2020

I think a global economic depression is worse than a disease that kills a lot of elderly people. I know that sounds harsh but it's true.

Buy my best guess is that this ends once there are enough resources to deal with the disease without overloading the health system. This could occur in the following ways:

  • an antiviral treatment (not a vaccine) that significantly reduces the amount of patients needing critical care
  • successful identification and quarantine of high-risk groups only (not the whole country)
  • ramping up of healthcare resources in some semi-permanent & high quality way. I saw the navy offered its hospital ships already. Maybe it's this plus large field hospitals or similar.
  • warm weather actually does slow the spread and allows time for an effective treatment to emerge (vaccine or antiviral) before it comes back in late autumn '20.

As others have mentioned, the mortality rate isn't that high but the nominal numbers of people it forces into critical care is the problem. This is really the only data point that matters.

Long-term, if none of the other measures work, the last resort is to simply triage patients by age / health status and make them as comfortable as possible. I really don't think the world will accept another Great Depression from this thing as it stands.

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  • Associate 2 in PE - Other
Mar 17, 2020

Thinking 2 months of remote work and then shit will slowly go back to normal. At-risk individuals will be allowed to continue working from home, but the rest will go back to their daily routines and be on the look-out for symptoms. Small pockets will contract the virus which will cause small scale quarantines but the media will start focusing on the next big thing and report the events for a couple of days at a time before losing focus. All in all, best case is 3-4 weeks, worst case is 6+ months. Fucking happy to be working in infra PE right now. Only problem will be the amount of dry powder we'll have from investors seeking safe investments for a little while.

Mar 17, 2020

As this country slowly shuts down - first San Francisco, soon NYC, and followed likely by the entire country - we are truly in unprecedented times. The price movements, in terms of standard deviations, haven't been since the Great Depression. Goldman brought GDP estimates for the world economy to 1.2% from 1.9%. China's estimate was cut to 3.0% from 5.5%. The ripple effects of this virus likely will last for years.

The US Secretary of the Treasury went on live television today and stated that limiting trading hours was on the table. He also said that unemployment in the United States could hit 20% without drastic action. Even with talks this afternoon of a $1.2T bailout package, Dow futures are down 500 points as I type.

Estimates put this as peaking by June-August in the US but who really knows - there are too many variables. Stay safe all. The world, for all intents and purposes, is at war. The best thing everyone can do is stay indoors and avoid social contact for multiple weeks to flatten the curve.

Few pieces that I have found useful: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/971254/mornin... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opi...
Goldman also put out a good market update today on revised GDP figures.

Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.

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Mar 18, 2020

One thing I'll say is that a lot of people are dying from this, and the death rate is largely unknown. It could be way more (or less) than the ~3.5% everyone keeps saying.

  • everyone keeps dividing the "total deaths" by "total cases." As of this writing, that would be 7,948/198,004 = 4.0%. However, the denominator here is wrong because doing this implies that every single person still battling the virus (including the tens of thousands of people included in that ~198k that just got diagnosed in the past couple of days) are going to survive. Obviously that's not necessarily true. the virus takes a week or two to kill people. As a result, the death rate would need to be total deaths / total cases AS OF A WEEK OR TWO AGO. Technically speaking, only 81,946/198,004 = 41% have formally recovered.
  • on the flip side, the denominator also doesn't include asymptomatic or people with very mild symptoms that maybe don't go to the doctor.
  • i don't have the links, but on the news I've heard: In Iran, 15% of the DEATHS are people under 40. In France, HALF of the people in critical condition are under 60. Here in Dallas, 9 new people just tested positive today - two are 20 and 30-somethings with NO underlying conditions who are now in critical condition. Obviously high-risk people are those that are elderly and immuno-compromised, but even young and healthy people should take this seriously. Y'all are basically making it seem like this is the flu/cold.
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Mar 18, 2020
Mar 18, 2020

I think most of people don't know when it will over, but if we look through the numbers we could see they don't look soothingly. BUT) BETTER TO STAY AT HOME THAN IN HOSPITALS.
Below the Coronavirus Disease by the Numbers (Update 18 March 2020)

https://www.cityfalcon.com/news/stories/5edee77d-6...

Mar 18, 2020

8 weeks could be the peak! Hoping we can all get back to normal asap

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Mar 18, 2020

White liberal millennials are officially rooting for the virus against humanity to ''save earth from climate change''.

We have gone full circle, to ''save humanity'', they demand human exctinction. And these are the ones that pretend to care about ''future generations'' and demand you to eat less meat.

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Mar 18, 2020
neink:

White liberal millennials are officially rooting for the virus against humanity to ''save earth from climate change''.

...or one random dude on twitter who mostly tweets about bitcoin is posting random bullshit to get noticed and is not in any way representative of millennials, liberals, or white people.

C'mon now

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Mar 18, 2020

So we agree he's insane? Along with the 40k imbecilles who liked that tweet.

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Mar 18, 2020

A reported cure out of France, also being used in South Korea. Apparently, it's the dual administration of 2 drugs already available in virtually every American pharmacy shelf. According to the Stanford researcher in the WMAL interview, 100% cure rate across 24 people, average age 50. Doesn't sound yet like a silver bullet, but interesting.

WMAL interview this morning:
https://omny.fm/shows/mornings-on-the-mall/wmal-in...
Article:
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French...
Research site:

www.covidtrial.io

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g1...
I'm not a doctor and can't speak to the validity of this stuff, but my guess is that we probably aren't going to be quarantined into the summer, for a multitude of reasons

Mar 18, 2020

Yup, I've been seeing this too.

Anti-malarial tablets seem to be doing the trick. They're also super cheap.

The problem is that you can't take that stuff forever, its pretty bad for you- and is the reason people who live in malaria zones dont take it non-stop.

But promising nonetheless.

Mar 18, 2020

The end of 2021. I have heard they are putting out phase 1 for the vaccine during a summer trail. Honestly, I hate conspiracy theories but people are saying someone stole corona-virus from a biological war-fare lab in Wuhan, China called Wuhan Lab 0. It's also strange because Prime minster Modi from India and Xi Jinping visited there. I don't believe in any of this unless this misinformation.

"It's okay, I'll see you on the other side"

Mar 18, 2020
Funx2192:

Honestly, I hate conspiracy theories but people are saying someone stole corona-virus from a biological war-fare lab in Wuhan

Then why spread them?

"People are saying..." has to be one of the worst quotes from the past few years. People will say anything. People are morons.

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Mar 18, 2020

What if it is true? It's not a secret that China has been actually is developing Bio-Warfare weapons for the last few years, that is a Fact.

"It's okay, I'll see you on the other side"

Mar 20, 2020
CRE:

Then why spread them?

I have a lot of time on my hands.......
It's all part of China 2025 plan

-Make President Xi president for life
-Create Modern Day Belt and Road Initiative
-Give out a lot of money as Loans to a bunch of Countries that really need it and are likely to default.
-Sign a phase 1 agreement, state you will make a Best Effort to comply, pending market conditions.
-Release a virus, creating a pandemic which almost brings the world economy to a halt. Making everyone dependent on you.
-Take over ports and other infrastructure from the countries you lent money too.
-Renig on the original trade deal due to adverse market factors. Thus renegotiate a better trade deal.
- To be continued....

China 2025, its Chess and Monopoly in one. These guys are in it for the long run. Our democracy only have a 4 or 8 year vision. We look at everything as a series of battles, China is fighting a war.

Purely for entertainment purposes only. Feel free to build on my list.

    • 4
Mar 26, 2020
Funx2192:

The end of 2021. I have heard they are putting out phase 1 for the vaccine during a summer trail. Honestly, I hate conspiracy theories but people are saying someone stole corona-virus from a biological war-fare lab in Wuhan, China called Wuhan Lab 0. It's also strange because Prime minster Modi from India and Xi Jinping visited there. I don't believe in any of this unless this misinformation.

Xi Jingping visited a city under his governance? So... ??

Mar 18, 2020

Has anyone heard or read of random testing to assess the infection rate (and risk) or COVID-19? All I heard is testing those who volunteered to test. The latter is NOT a good way or assessing the true risk.

    • 1
Mar 18, 2020

Has anyone heard or read of random testing to assess the infection rate (and risk) or COVID-19? All I heard is testing those who volunteered to test. The latter is NOT a good way or assessing the true risk.

    • 1
Mar 25, 2020
SkullCrusherDJ:

Has anyone heard or read of random testing to assess the infection rate (and risk) or COVID-19? All I heard is testing those who volunteered to test. The latter is NOT a good way or assessing the true risk.

Agreed

The way whole thing has not been a good way of dealing with this

Mar 26, 2020
SkullCrusherDJ:

Has anyone heard or read of random testing to assess the infection rate (and risk) or COVID-19? All I heard is testing those who volunteered to test. The latter is NOT a good way or assessing the true risk.

True, but apparently these tests are also in limited supply. Many are angry that folks who can get access to these tests but are asymptomatic are doing so at all as there is concern limited supply will prevent sick people from getting needed help.

Mar 26, 2020

Same with people walking around in N95 masks while doctors are resorting to bandanas and shit

Array

Mar 18, 2020

hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin seems to be the answer..

"Chloroquine, an anti-malaria pill, has shown early promise is treating COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chlor...
"When combined with the antibiotic azithromycin, it also reduced the viral load in these patients, he added. Azithromycin helps fight lung infections that can come with COVID-19 and may play a role in fighting the virus, Medscape reported."

COVID-19: Could Hydroxychloroquine Really Be the Answer?
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927033
"After 6 days, the percentage of patients testing positive for COVID-19 who received hydroxychloroquine fell to 25% versus 90% for those who did not receive the treatment (a group of untreated COVID-19 patients from Nice and Avignon).

In addition, comparing untreated patients, those receiving hydroxychloroquine and those given hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin, the results showed there was "a spectacular reduction in the number of positive cases" with the combination therapy, said Prof Raoult.

At 6 days, among patients given combination therapy, the percentage of cases still carrying SRAS-CoV-2 was no more than 5%.

Azithromycin was added because it is known to be effective against complications from bacterial lung disease but also because it has been shown to be effective in the laboratory against a large number of viruses, the infectious disease specialist explained."

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

    • 2
Mar 19, 2020
Isaiah_53_5:

hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin seems to be the answer..

"Chloroquine, an anti-malaria pill, has shown early promise is treating COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chlor...
"When combined with the antibiotic azithromycin, it also reduced the viral load in these patients, he added. Azithromycin helps fight lung infections that can come with COVID-19 and may play a role in fighting the virus, Medscape reported."

COVID-19: Could Hydroxychloroquine Really Be the Answer?
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927033
"After 6 days, the percentage of patients testing positive for COVID-19 who received hydroxychloroquine fell to 25% versus 90% for those who did not receive the treatment (a group of untreated COVID-19 patients from Nice and Avignon).

In addition, comparing untreated patients, those receiving hydroxychloroquine and those given hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin, the results showed there was "a spectacular reduction in the number of positive cases" with the combination therapy, said Prof Raoult.

At 6 days, among patients given combination therapy, the percentage of cases still carrying SRAS-CoV-2 was no more than 5%.

Azithromycin was added because it is known to be effective against complications from bacterial lung disease but also because it has been shown to be effective in the laboratory against a large number of viruses, the infectious disease specialist explained."

Hopefully this tests out well and we can get back to normal life. Some of the prognostications involving the economic impact are truly frightening right now.

    • 4
Mar 19, 2020

I've been seeing these tests hover around now. Looking promising if it can actually be thoroughly tested properly. I'm sure if things get bad enough, this will just become a go to, despite lack of research.

    • 1
Mar 19, 2020

White House just mentioned chloroquine is seriously being considered as a treatment in today's briefing.

Array

    • 2
Mar 19, 2020
Infra:

White House just mentioned chloroquine is seriously being considered as a treatment in today's briefing.

Which was immediately tempered by the medical staff. There is no definitive evidence yet that it is effective, but it certainly looks hopeful.

    • 1
Mar 18, 2020

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

    • 1
Mar 19, 2020

.

    • 1
Mar 19, 2020

There has been a little bit of disillusionment coming out of the administration. Not really its fault. Most of the supporting voters held the same detachment from reality.

  • Incoming Analyst in IB-M&A
Mar 19, 2020

It's a really tough situation. The potential economic damage is unimaginable if we stay locked down. At what point do we go back to normal life? For example, if in a month there is less than 10k deaths in the US do we do it? Is there a threshold? I just fear the economic damage may cause more deaths than the virus itself due to an extreme recession. There are so many unknowns.

Mar 20, 2020

This crisis has been a long time in the making. This has been a massive bubble in search of a pin. We have had 30 years of interest rate suppression by central banks. Our own Federal Reserve is the prime culprit. Interest rates have not been this low in 5000 years of finance and lending.

Index investing which is valuation indifferent is another major culprit. If you hold cash in reserve you under perform the index, so everybody is all-in. Now everybody is all out.

Lastly, corporate buybacks have been the marginal buyer of this market. Worse yet, most companies borrowed in the bond market to buy back shares. They compromised their balance sheets to juice EPS. This is the height of stupidity. Now CFOs find themselves at the head of the class of the buy high-sell low gang.

The chickens have come home to roost.

    • 3
Mar 20, 2020

This is an important factor to consider too. People die in recessions because they can no longer afford things. Especially healthcare, which is already the topic of the foreseeable future. There's a few problems that I see:

  1. People won't like the idea of costing human lives to prevent a recession. It just sounds bad. It sounds like you want your $100k+ job and if grandma's gotta go then.. at least you have your bonus. Not saying you mean it like that, but just imagine how Reddit and Twitter (and the general public) will see it.
  2. Everyone wants a handout. Remember your first bad breakup and you heard that people come in your life to teach you something? Bernie came into the election gang to open up people to the idea of government bailing out the general public. We're going to get $1,200 or so issued from a Republic President right now. That's new. Hearing about a $750B bailout in 2008 was abstract. It's just some number but you can't conceptualize it. $1,200 a month in my pocket feels very tangible.
  3. Somethings got to give. The wealth inequality, political divide, and anger in this country is pretty wild. Maybe this will bring us together? If the off topic forum is any indication, it won't unfortunately.

"The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary." - Nassim Taleb

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  • Incoming Analyst in IB-M&A
Mar 20, 2020

Completely agree on your first point. It sounds terrible at face value, but like you mentioned people do die due to recessions. It's a very tricky situation to navigate and I wish the people in charge of doing just that good luck. It sounds crass, but at what point do the hundreds of billions in economic damage become worth it? That damage will take lives. Like I said, I'm interested to see what happens in a month or so if there are very few deaths in the US (205 as of today).

Mar 20, 2020

This will light the fuse of someone capitalizing on the populist left support you've seen Bernie garner over the past few years. Similar to Trump capitalizing on the anger of the working class following the GFC.

Array

    • 1
Mar 20, 2020

To point #2 - it's actually not new.

W mailed out some checks during the GFC. Don't know if you recall.

Mar 19, 2020

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Mar 20, 2020

TSLA: $420 funding secured

Mar 19, 2020

6 months to a year in my opinion.

Mar 20, 2020

This is still escalating , 3 months seems more reasonable, I think 8 weeks min

Mar 20, 2020

I am a little confused here... China reported two consecutive days of no new cases of community transmission and are apparently getting back to work, but here in CA over 25MM people are expected to contract the disease over the next 8 weeks. Can anyone explain?

Mar 20, 2020

China was infected earlier than we were. They are at the late stages but we are in the early stages.

Mar 20, 2020

But how does that explain the massive differential in expected cases? Over 25MM cases in CA alone are expected over the next 8 weeks if you believe the Governor, despite the state-wide quarantine. If China is in the late stages with only ~ 80,000 cases reported, that is quite a different expectation. Just doesn't make sense.

  • VP in IB - Ind
Mar 20, 2020

Remember all those "human rights violations" aka keeping people at home, moving sick people to hospitals? Turns out that works really well, and letting people do whatever they want is a really bad idea for controlling a pandemic.

    • 3
Mar 20, 2020

forever sandlot

    • 1
Mar 20, 2020

lol Sandlot - nice

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

Mar 20, 2020

The longevity, hence seriousness of this upheaval will be conditioned on how much people in western world are disciplined. It is (lets not jinx it) getting sorted out in Asia, and the number 1 reason why it is so, is discipline. In Frankfurt, bars today and yesterday were full, everyone outside, hardly anyone wearing any protection whatsoever (did not except full pajamas suits, only couple of passenger wore gloves). This lack of discipline will I think, at least, be the major obstacle in putting reins over this craziness. People are bitching about lack of democracy in proposed measures (curfew e.g.). Democracy and crises management do not go hand in hand in such situations.

Mar 20, 2020

this upcoming week in the US could be a big one if we don't flatten the curve...

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

    • 1
Mar 21, 2020

It is inevitable that the # of known cases will increase sharply since the CDC has ramped up production of test kits. Our deaths per million residents (which is the relevant metric since it adjusts for population) is significantly lower than nearly all other countries.

Mar 21, 2020

This week has been rough. Laid off nearly 50 people and expect to layoff another 20 to 30 this coming week depending on which states get shut down. Sales at some companies are actually up but we have key suppliers BKing right now and are unable to order inventory from suppliers in certain states because they are apparently banned from being operational.

Really feel bad for our hourly employees. I have no clue WTF is going to happen to California or the other states shutting down once people run out of money...

I'm actually trapped in the US right now because I can't get back to the US if I leave and my GF is American so she can't come with me to Canada. Weird dynamic.

Either way, grateful to have my health and enough cash to ride this out...

Mar 21, 2020

I think the question is at what amount of cases will the gov't allow a return to normalcy? Also I'm shocked that there hasn't been a federal mandate for lockdown in every state at this point.

Mar 23, 2020

I will be here longer than you think...

    • 5
Mar 23, 2020

Next time any liberal complains about Trump's response to the issue, bring up what the Democratic tried to put in the relief bill:

''Pay equity'' (literally equal outcome, communism) combined with some concessions to unions
Funding for community newspapers
Hiding citizenship of college students from the Census
Corporate diversity and inclusion legislation
Same day voter registration
Airlines obligated to offset emissions and funding for green initiative
College debt relief

In short they just don't give a shit. Completely out of touch with reality, unable to acknowledge the seriousness of issues at hand, driven by ideology of social repression, socialism, misanthropic environmentalism and dedicated to pit women against men, whites against non-whites etc.. What a party of garbage.

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    • 4
Mar 23, 2020

I mean - it's just as easy for me to be a partisan hack the other way too.

The vote itself was a show vote for political reasons. McConnell knew it was never going to pass. Meanwhile, the Republican's bill:

  • Creates a $500 Billion Dollar slush fund for use at the President's discretion
  • Allows Mnuchin to waive restrictions on bailed out companies for spending their money on stock buy backs
  • Prevents non-profits from receiving SBA funding
  • Extends an abstinence-only sex ed program (wtf?)

Along with other nonsense. Meanwhile, a House bill is being negotiated AND a better Senate bill is being negotiated, so it's hardly like this is the end-all be-all.

Ultimately, framing this as "Democrats don't give a shit" is nonsensical and hopelessly partisan because you are rooting "normal" as "whatever Mitch McConnell wants." Both sides are using the bill to push their own agenda, which is to be expected, because this is politics and that's what happens in politics. There is zero reason Democrats should bend over for McConnell simply because it is a crisis, no matter how much he complains about it in bad faith.

"Working together" means actually working together and compromising, not just giving Republicans everything they want.

    • 4
    • 2
Mar 23, 2020
CRE:

I mean - it's just as easy for me to be a partisan hack the other way too.

The vote itself was a show vote for political reasons. McConnell knew it was never going to pass. Meanwhile, the Republican's bill:

  • Creates a $500 Billion Dollar slush fund for use at the President's discretion
  • Allows Mnuchin to waive restrictions on bailed out companies for spending their money on stock buy backs
  • Prevents non-profits from receiving SBA funding
  • Extends an abstinence-only sex ed program (wtf?)

Along with other nonsense. Meanwhile, a House bill is being negotiated AND a better Senate bill is being negotiated, so it's hardly like this is the end-all be-all.

Ultimately, framing this as "Democrats don't give a shit" is nonsensical and hopelessly partisan because you are rooting "normal" as "whatever Mitch McConnell wants." Both sides are using the bill to push their own agenda, which is to be expected, because this is politics and that's what happens in politics. There is zero reason Democrats should bend over for McConnell simply because it is a crisis, no matter how much he complains about it in bad faith.

"Working together" means actually working together and compromising, not just giving Republicans everything they want.

Your reaction to the point 4 you listed is the reaction I have to every single point I listed. It's completely unrelated crap. Can we agree?

Mar 23, 2020
CRE:
  • Extends an abstinence-only sex ed program (wtf?)

Is that a joke or is that true?

Mar 23, 2020

Here we go again...

Mar 23, 2020

How the fuck do you legislate "diversity and inclusion?"

Mar 24, 2020

What a joke

  • Intern in IB-M&A
Mar 25, 2020

Forget about the other ideologies but environmentalism is an important issue that if left unchecked will lead to worse natural disasters and greater recessions. I don't think someone like greta does any good but rejecting what scientists have warned is asinine.

Mar 23, 2020

You can always count on the New York Times to use headlines until they can finally fit the goal of misrepresenting reality to sow division and hatred.
nyt

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    • 1
Mar 23, 2020

I mean the last one isn't even the same article, it's an opinion piece.

    • 1
Mar 23, 2020

Gotem!...

    • 1
Mar 26, 2020

My prediction is 1/3rd of America dead, one million+ Americans dead by fall. It's not just the flu.

    • 1
Mar 26, 2020

US just passed China in total cases: 81,864 vs. 81,285. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.

Mar 26, 2020
Comment
Mar 26, 2020
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Array

Mar 27, 2020
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Mar 29, 2020