Morning Monkeys,
Thanks again to everyone who helped out with my (awful) first try at this. I've since gone back through everything, built out a decent IS model, and attempted to incorporate all of the suggestions. And, two weeks later, and probably a little too much wasted time at work and home, I think I have a product that is not embarassingly bad. Regular bad? Maybe, but hopefully it's a vast improvement over the previous attempt.
I've upped the ante this time around, instead of free beer, it's free scotch! Think JW Black, I'm not rich enough to keep you all full of Macallan 18. Same basic rules apply (see: //www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/free-beerif-you-re…-ER-report-first-try)
New ER Report (2nd Try): https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzgRTYOUIJE5MmVI…
Model (Looks like it's working): https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzgRTYOUIJE5d0tf…
Some key additions to the 2nd try:
1) Graphs and Tables. I probably went overboard here, sorry.
2) Appendix for the model (appendix A)
3) Appendix for the bibliography (appendix B, note: not actually a bibliography, but worth checking out)
4) Hopefully a better focus on how everything deals with revenues, EPS, etc.
5) Included really obvious things I somehow missed last time (i.e. current price, etc.)
Looks like the model is downloading properly.
Thanks again to everyone who's been so helpful! I really appreciate it.
Random formatting things:
The main thing I would say though is that it doesn't look very fun. People will have stacks of HUNDREDS of ER reports on their desk, you want to make them WANT to read yours. This is all a question of formatting though, but more graphs / charts and less text / tables full of data.
Page 12 is fantastic though!
You really put a lot of thought into the DCF section - I appreciate the effort. But it isn't very readable. I would shorten it: a few paragraphs of discussion, then a table summarizing assumptions and outputs for Bear/Base/Bull scenarios. I would remove or clarify those "PE multiples" boxes.
I would also change the chart on the front page from 3d to 2d.
You also start with most recent periods on the right, but switch halfway through so that they are on the left.
I would also go into more detail on their acquisition (accretive? What did they pay?). Likewise, also explore the impact of the buybacks.
But much improved from Version 1. And I would be more likely to read ER reports if they all adopted your analysis on p. 12.
do we get 2 if your report sucks to compensate for the pain we must go through reading it?
Change the chart to 2d please even if it needs to be two separate charts. Also page break your sections (e.g. valuation). Also agree with what others have said.
What the hell man, why are you password protecting your VBA stuff?
Password or tl;dr
PM me if you want the password for the model. I'm bizarrely paranoid.
good job.
I would like a Macallan 25 please.
Ha! At least you didn't ask for Macallan 1939...
Would be glad to help even though I'm too far away to get the Scotch (shit!). That being said most offices (mine, at least) block Google Docs, so you might consider uploading as a PDF to something like SlideShare instead.
Thanks to everyone who's taken a look! You've all been very helpful!
On the plus side, it looks like (for the most part) the report isn't a mangled mess of garbage, and instead, is merely a crappy report. Not bad for a second attempt (I'm assuming)!
I'll put in another 4-6 months on this one, get the model up to snuff (incorporate CF & BS and, hell, a little more VBA) and try to write a report that I can send out to prospective employers. Obviously, not quite there yet. Very obviously. But hey, practice and all that shit.
Thanks again!
Model Results (Primary Scenario) vs Actual
OpenTable Earnings (8k, not 10q) Revenue: $39.74 Costs: $30.57 Net Income: $5.95 EPS: $0.26
Primary Scenario Revenue: $38.12 Costs: $29.91 Net Income: $5.33 EPS: $0.24
Difference Revenue: -$1.62 / -4% Costs: -$0.66 / -2.2% Net Income: -$0.62 / -10.4% EPS: -0.02 / -7.69%
Not terrible for a first try at an IS model.... I think. Well, it doesn't seem horrible at least. Sadly, based on their own projections, my primary scenario's 12/31/12 quarterly estimates seem very aggressive. Back to the drawing board I suppose. Thanks again for everyone's help.
Model Results FY2012 Primary Scenario vs. Actual (8k)
Line: Model | Actual | Difference | % Difference Revenue: $161,771,512 | $161,632,000 | $139,512 | 0.08% Cost of Revenue: $43,861,380 | $41,908,000 | $1,953,380 | 4.66% SG&A and Other Expenses: $80,317,177 | $83,175,000 | $2,857,823 | -3.44% Net Income: $24,403,370 | $23,972,000 | $431,370 | 1.80% EPS (basic): $1.07 | $1.06 | $0.01 | 0.93%
Note: Model utilized known values from Q1 & Q2 of FY2012, so this is a reflection of the accuracy of the model for only Q3 and Q4. Sorry about the shitty formatting.
Just started reading, but first up, don't say 'the company' so often. Writing tip, if your sentence makes sense with fewer words, use less.
example: ... the company's income statement to forecast the company's earnings and cash flow (). The company's revenues ...etc.
better: ...the company's income statements to forecast earnings and cash flow (). Revenues are derived from two sources, a front end fee to install an OpenTable system, and the long term revenue stream generated by system utilization in seating customers at the restaurant.
Good advice. Got plenty of work to do on the report, without a doubt, but it's been a while since I've updated the report itself. Always nice to get some feedback though, thanks.
Still re-working the old model, but part of me thinks that it works fine based on it's performance over the past two quarters. Some key deviations on certain metrics within the model, but apparently the output isn't affected. Good problem to have, I suppose.
How did you acquire those modeling and valuation skills? With Wall Street Prep?
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