How does a guy Running a Long Volatility Mean Reversion Strategy get a Job at a Hedge Fund?

I have a quick question for any one on the forum who could help. I previously worked as an junior level investment analyst. I could not get promoted, so I left in 2017 to start my own shop. I ran a multi-strategy convex portfolio designed to create asymmetric returns with a strong focus on systematically maintaining long volatility. My main strategy, synthetic futures, is based on a straight forward points system, trading either long or short on the major indexes (DOW, S&P, & Nasdaq). The goal was to create portfolios that were positively skewed, had relatively little correlation to the market, and offered excess alpha when measured against the market portfolio. What makes this unique is the points system relies on a mean reverting strategy strictly focused on the daily implied market volatility. What exactly do i need to do to get into a hedge fund?

Each time I apply to Baupost, Artemis, Point 72 etc on down the list I get a response back from the H/R Department - Formally thanking me for submitting, but no availability or other offers. Does anyone here have any advice on how to obtain entry?

Below is me discussing in detail one of the strategies used etc via youtube just type in traderfirstyear reddit or youtube and a few strategies i ran will show up with me discussing them. Really doing the videos as a way to get a foot in the door etc

 

I have trouble understanding your strategy. By "long volatility" do you mean trading options and assorted vol products, or do you mean using implied volatility as a signal but trading delta 1 products? Did you actually make any money during the time you were trading?

 

Good Morning John Smith 578. Yes, I mean the latter. I did not trade futures or options on VIX products. I did a mean reverting strategy as a premium buyer of options utilizing implied volatility and just attempting to extract positive carry versus realized volatility. I'm not allowed to provide a link but i posted the details of this particular strategy on reddit with a link to my youtube video where i describe it. I also did some dispersion trading, dividend capture, and stock replication. I am just unsure how to articulate this correctly to these firms, so I can get a job on the trading desk or work there. If you view the video and link let me know if you have any additional suggestions - i'm not senior enough on here yet to provide a link but it's below just need to type reddit ahead of it below

/r/options/comments/bo6s0u/putcall_gamma_options_traders_make_100_return_in/

 

Overall the idea looks reasonable, but the execution and presentation is really horrific.

  1. Your returns have beta to CTA strategies precisely because you are trying to catch a trend during the last few hours before market close.
  2. It's difficult to reconcile a positively skewed pnl profile with your worst loss being twice as large than your best gain.
  3. No one takes seriously an alpha calculated on less than 1 year of data
  4. Your positive sharpe ratio makes no sense if you lost money for the year
  5. If you're not trading options you can't have gamma or convexity by definition. However, although you denied it you are trading vol products (options) not just delta 1.
  6. Trading costs for single name stock options (especially at retail level) are extremely large. Given the tiny edge you're trying to harvest, there is no chance your strategy has any positive expected returns after you factor in the commission + spread.

You sound extremely confused about basic finance definitions and even the pnl profile of your own strategy. Most people who sound like this are cranks. If you act like one, that's what people will conclude.

Trading is about discovery, not computation. Study the definitions and books on asset pricing, so you aren't using your own ad-hoc terms and methodology on interviews. Study your own strategy returns and ask yourself if the PnL is telling a consistent story about the world. I would finally suggest embracing a bit more humility. Most trading strategies don't work: finding one tiny alpha which is at most 15% complete does not make you anywhere close to a master of the universe.

 

I dont understand your strategy either, but do know there is a zero chance a fund like Baupost would go with something like that. You should probably start by narrowing the targets if you're going to be pitching such a nichey strategy.

 

MMPM, yes, thanks for the feedback. I'm not looking to "sell" the strategy or use it elsewhere. I just want to get my foot in the door on the experience and attempt to leverage my understanding of the market. I am just not really sure how to go about it - How to land an interview at the hedge fund.

If you look up to the post above yours i left for John Smith 578 you can link to it. I just need advice on tailoring the message, so I can use it to leverage or propel me into a job interview.

 
Most Helpful

Do you have a tear-sheet for the strategy (the usual - timeframes/Sharpe/Sortino/PnlTrade/etc)?

Couple thoughts:

  • FWIW, using implied volatility to trade the underlying delta-1 is very common and is not unique at all (in fact, it's so common that some implied vol signals have actually stopped working in the past 2-3 years).

  • People will be doubtful that you have discovered something in liquid futures that nobody else is doing. It's much easier to convince people that you found alpha in copper futures listed in Ulan Bator than in a product that literally everyone is looking at.

  • Last, but not least, is your lack of industry background is going to hinder you a lot. Most funds/PMs have found that 99% of people coming from outside of finance with "ideas" are cranks.

I have a friend who lives in the country, and it's supposed to be an hour from 42nd Street. A lie! The only thing that's an hour from 42nd Street is 43rd Street!
 

Morning Most Random Dude - Here are the regressions and statistics during 1st Qrt 2018. I was operating out of three portfolios, but only ran the statistics on two. I ran into a lot of issues in the 2nd half of the year, because I was manually executing the strategies, so lead to large drawdowns. The strategies in the larger portfolio are wholly dictated by market volatility and change given different volatility regimes. The volatility and payout and statistics on this portfolio since i have taken over resemble that of a CTA Trend Following Hedge Fund (while you could say the volatility trading i do, would mimic a CTA in the sense, im extracting the difference between implied volatility and realized capturing the *hopefully the positive carry, it is a multi-strategy long vol fund), although that is not necessarily my intention, it is what the portfolio returns mimic. The returns for this quarter on the larger portfolio were as high as 16%, but due to some mishaps we finished the Quarter up a solid 6%, beating the market indexes by more then 600 basis points, so while, the performance could have been significantly better i am working to tweak parts of the strategies in terms of execution, my overall performance was fairly solid.

I think what you mentioned in terms of quantum computing or some form of AI driven Algos would have worked well. I'll provide the full year details just looking for an email i sent them out in etc.

Portfolio 1 (Mix of assets bonds, equities, & directional gamma options exposure to increase convexity)

Skew 0.7041

Kurtosis 2.4465

Std Dev 1.48%

Historic Vol 23.46%

Sharpe Ratio 0.00707

Portfolio 2 (purposely run with a lot of directional gamma exposure to produce far right returns)

Skew 2.1996

Kurtosis 9.4383

Std Dev 9.12%

Historic Vol 144.72%

Sharpe Ratio 0.13345311

Full Year

2018 End of Year Portfolio Statics Overall

Total Gain $617,802.57

Total Losses $875,421.90

Net Gain/Loss ($257,619.33)

Total Trade 1,250

Winning Trades 778 (62.2%)

Losing Trades 472 (37.8)

Largest Winning Trade $28,606.64

Largest Losing Trade 45,588.49

 

I am not sure what these numbers are, to be honest. The Sharpe ratios are daily, I assume? What's the turnover rate or average holding time? What are your execution assumptions, separately for the futures and for the options?

PS. feel free to move to the PM, it's probably gonna be boring for the general pubic

I have a friend who lives in the country, and it's supposed to be an hour from 42nd Street. A lie! The only thing that's an hour from 42nd Street is 43rd Street!
 

Wow first person I’ve ever seen come right out and post data with massive losses. Have to give you credit for that. Usually it’s hidden for a while as they talk up their algo.

Best of luck. Hope that wasn’t your own money.

 

a couple thoughts

1) you should post returns in % of AUM, rather than absolute $$ 2) sharpe and sortino etc,. ratios should be annual..inputs either daily or monthly returns 3) backtests should have 10+ years of data to have any meaning, unless you are doing HFT. 4) you did not indicate what kind of leverage you are using

as a start, i would suggest posting a series of data on an annual basis (so, if you backtest for 10 years, then 10 rows of data....one row for each year) include 2-3 largest drawdown periods per year (size and time) and time to recover from each drawdown (measured in days?).

also, assume no profit reinvestment, to keep the AUM% math simple

nobody will hire you to directly run $$ as a PM with what you have described...the finance world has found that 99% of people who don't come from a standard finance background fail as a PM (either developed in-house, or hired laterally from another large firm), so that door has closed. You might have a chance to get a job as a quantitative researcher and then get promoted up tp PM over the years (but you haven't indicated your skills in that arena...so hard to tell). Most PMs either come from ibank trading desks, or work as analysts, or researchers for many years, publishing their ideas and developing a following.

DV Trading as mentioned above (and other prop shops) are mainly focused on leveraged strategies...prop firms have capital...but usually in the 50-200mm range....they don't have billions...that kind of $$ is found in traditional asset managers and hedge funds...and they recruit from the cream of the crop from the ibanks...its a fairly standard pipeline. Prop firms don;t care about "beating an index"...they only care about absolute $$ being made..as a % of AUM deployed

Prop firms will only hire prop traders that have a consistently profitable trading strategy..usually wanting 2-3 years of recent profitability. Otherwise, they will hire researchers / analysts...but they don't need as many as a larger asset manager, so there are fewer openings. Most prop traders do their own research.

just google it...you're welcome
 

There are hedge funds solely dedicated to your strategy...maybe try them? Might be hard right now because of how out of favor long vol strategies are. Argentiere was a decent sized fund that just closed. Hard for LPs to stay in a fund for 8-10 years bleeding IRR for a 20-40% boost for two years when it comes back into favor.

 

Long vol as a strat has a lot of issues. For the most part you are long central bank incompetency. As long as they are good at achieving 2% inflation and keeping growth chugging it’s a poor strategy structurally. We had the feb vol implosion which is somewhat weird and I blame on some weird market dynamics. Macro-wise it seemed silly. All we do is print 180k jobs a month with no inflation.

Second your short a risks premia. It’s a simple idea but everyone would want to be long vol if it produced alpha. It captures fat tails and would be a great portfolio hedge if it had positive returns. Therefore people should get paid shorting vol. the market should pay you for taking a risks. It’s why the dumbfuck who blew out short natty gas vol made money for a long time. Nobody wants to have that risks in their portfolio of being broke on a random day. But it did make money for a long time.

 

Morning Traderlife - Yes, I agree with some of what you said in the first and second paragraphs. There are a lot of constraints on realized volatility. The strategies i was running were mostly dependent on positive convexity, which would have been enhanced by a higher rate of volatility.

This year thus far would be a great example how hard it is to pull off these strategies given all of the factors influencing and pushing realized volatility lower.

Also, your last point in terms of selling convexity into the market or "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" it works until it doesn't. Every decade there are groups of convexity sellers that get blindsided by a jump in realized volatility. In 1997 Victor Niederhoffer using the same strategy in the equity market Cordon (sp?) used in the natural gas market blew up his hedge fund. In some sense he was purposely selling convexity to collect premium to leverage up and re-invest, but realized volatility did not mean revert as quickly as he thought and it spiked leaving the fund insolvent.

Last year i purposely avoided a lot of strategies where i would be selling a ton of convexity into the market. Although, I did at times engage in selling 4% strangles on the index, but it was more a strategy to bring down overall volatility in the portfolios to get it back under 20. Keep in mind I am purposely and intentionally pushing the dispersion in the portfolio wider with the strategies i was using. In general I was attempting to extract the difference between implied and realized, which would have the effect of pushing the portfolios 1% to 3% on a daily basis. Typical hedge funds have volatility in a range of 5 to 8 (or moves less then 0.15% daily) If the market dispersion was really wide, i'd attempt to push the portfolio 5% in a given day. Obviously, there are a lot of risk when you're intentionally attempting to push a portfolio and positively skew the returns by attempting to consistently land to the far right side of a distribution curve. The pendulum swings in both direction if your analysis or timing is off by a small amount.

I think this year, i would pursue the same strategy, but I think this end of cycle will be a bit different with the Federal Reserve resuming QE "lite" in October, so if consumers in the US are unable to widen the trade deficit, it will eliminate a lot of the financing that would come through the portfolio channels unhedged into the US equity markets, which could lead to a meltdown in July or August. Although, if the Fed communicates a rate cut at the September 2019 meeting, it may dampen realized volatility, which again hurts or doesn't allow a huge spike in volatility, which would benefit a lot of premium buying strategies late cycle. Again IMO

 

Morning Personofwalmart, Yea, i tried a few of the long volatility or crises alpha hedge funds mainly Artemis, but they did not have any opening at the time. The H/R got back to me after multiple emails directly to them. I may be over looking some others I am not aware of? Can you name a few more? In general I am not looking to work for any one specific type of Hedge Fund I mainly just want to get a foot in the door for an interview and go from there.

 

You are better off joining an existing team as a quant analyst/researcher, and then later bringing on and integrating your current ideas once you have enough rep built up. It would be difficult for a firm to hire you straight on as a PM without a more solid track record.

 

Thanks believeit seems there is no way around it. You sort of have to join a team and build a rep. A track record of 2-3 years seems to be the sweet spot. I'll look into quant analyst/researcher jobs, but I don't think i have a lot of interest in those areas. What company's would you recommend looking into and i'll start sending resumes to them

 

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