Is anyone else somewhat happy about the market turbulence?

Maybe it's the schadenfreude talking, but I share a bit of that guy Pepstar's views re: market turmoil - (too bad he was banned, he was a lot like me, except 1000x even more obnoxious - quite balls).

here's why:
1.) smaller incoming analyst classes and less banks - this means competing against less guys to get into those elusive buy-side jobs
2.) formerly strong banks failing as the strong get stronger - my prestige is up like a thousand notches
3.) what goes up must come down - and vice versa... in 2-3 years, when current 1sts are making their exit, markets should have fully rebounded and on track to the up-and-up... increased PE/HF hiring + less competition = glory

 
b2:

here's why: 1.) smaller incoming analyst classes and less banks - this means competing against less guys to get into those elusive buy-side jobs

WTF?

 

I do agree somewhat with b2's points - at least that's what I tell myself to make things seem not as bad. But there is no doubt that the situation is horrible for all parties involved.

 
Best Response
b2:
1.) smaller incoming analyst classes and less banks - this means competing against less guys to get into those elusive buy-side jobs
Those buy-side jobs are going to get even more elusive - I estimate that half of the hedge funds out there will close in the next 12-18 months. Private equity is toast for the next 5 years - in Buffett's parlance, "they got caught swimming naked"

Any hedge funds remaining will have their pick of seasoned professionals so why should they choose you with zero buy-side experience? Your competition just got a lot tougher.

b2:
2.) formerly strong banks failing as the strong get stronger - my prestige is up like a thousand notches
That may be true on a relative basis - although we're not out of the woods yet. In the meantime, "prestige" for the financial services has fallen like the Dow. The non-financial world thinks you are scum and you won't get laid on the back of your job title anymore.
b2:
3.) what goes up must come down - and vice versa... in 2-3 years, when current 1sts are making their exit, markets should have fully rebounded and on track to the up-and-up... increased PE/HF hiring + less competition = glory
You think this will be all over in 2-3 years time? You're even dumber than I thought. The financial world as we knew it is over, get used to it.

As for myself, I'm pretty happy with what's going on because it's what my analysis suggested would happen. But this is only on a relative basis.

The turmoil is showing up a lot of my competition for the momentum jockeys they were but it doesn't mean the AUM is breaking down the door.

 
John Mack:
b2:
1.) smaller incoming analyst classes and less banks - this means competing against less guys to get into those elusive buy-side jobs
Those buy-side jobs are going to get even more elusive - I estimate that half of the hedge funds out there will close in the next 12-18 months. Private equity is toast for the next 5 years - in Buffett's parlance, "they got caught swimming naked"

Any hedge funds remaining will have their pick of seasoned professionals so why should they choose you with zero buy-side experience? Your competition just got a lot tougher.

b2:
2.) formerly strong banks failing as the strong get stronger - my prestige is up like a thousand notches
That may be true on a relative basis - although we're not out of the woods yet. In the meantime, "prestige" for the financial services has fallen like the Dow. The non-financial world thinks you are scum and you won't get laid on the back of your job title anymore.
b2:
3.) what goes up must come down - and vice versa... in 2-3 years, when current 1sts are making their exit, markets should have fully rebounded and on track to the up-and-up... increased PE/HF hiring + less competition = glory
You think this will be all over in 2-3 years time? You're even dumber than I thought. The financial world as we knew it is over, get used to it.

As for myself, I'm pretty happy with what's going on because it's what my analysis suggested would happen. But this is only on a relative basis.

The turmoil is showing up a lot of my competition for the momentum jockeys they were but it doesn't mean the AUM is breaking down the door.

A very intelligent response, but I certainly hope that you're wrong. You seem to have the most bearish views out of anyone on the boards, care to elaborate more on your reasoning?

 

I agree w/ b2. For poor people, like small towners and other shits, life sucks. they can't pay their mortgages, they can't buy food. Waah Wahh. It's not like you buy expensive shit anyways, eg they shop at a discount, instead of at whole foods. WTF do they have to complain about, anyway. They buy their clothes from wall mart anyway. They're not the ones who have to buy Z Zegna, armani, hermes, freeman clothes to impress the client. There is a 1000X more pressure on Wall St.ers than pissant hick farmers or construction workers. Poor people should just fuck themselves and get their head out their dollar store ass.

 
John Mack:
Hey Dream, it's pretty easy to agree with yourself. I'll let you into a secret - you're not the only one with two usernames...

hahaha, try again, dumbdumb!

 
oasising:
Specifically, how all of this will affect the buyside.

This is what I wrote above.

"Those buy-side jobs are going to get even more elusive - I estimate that half of the hedge funds out there will close in the next 12-18 months. Private equity is toast for the next 5 years - in Buffett's parlance, "they got caught swimming naked"

Any hedge funds remaining will have their pick of seasoned professionals so why should they choose you with zero buy-side experience? Your competition just got a lot tougher."

Which part is not clear?

oasising:
Also, what would trigger a recovery in lending? (not government intervention, but macro factors)
Right now, it can only be government intervention. Banks aren't lending to each other because they aren't sure the counterparty is credit-worthy. Deleveraging and increasing the capital bases will also help but that takes time and we haven't got it.

Think of 2006/7 as the climax of two decades of easy credit - the level of lending was not normal at all. I doubt we will see it again in our lifetimes. So the only way is down.

 

What's happenning now is great. Just puts people in their place.

Let's face it. At a junior level, you really know nothing. Your job entails a) Selectively choosing industry reports to build a story (with no personal conviction on whether it's really true) b) Back-solving your model c) Processing some transaction (due diligence etc)

However did we got ourselves into thinking we're financial guns making hundreds of thousands of dollars and being able to pick the market? Analysts are overpaid for the value they add and a lot of know nothing about markets, and I mean that literally. Just take a look around your office - how many have been burnt?

 

Hahaha, I agree. This job is mind-numbingly retarded, and, these days, it's literally 90% face-time; but, hey, they're paying me and I'll be on to bigger and better things, so I'm not complaining.

 

juwannamann just de-pantsed dream

effin hilarious.

in regards to the original poster - there's nothing wrong with trying to be optimistic, however, you come across as being self-involved. and on a less condescending note, you would be prudent not to illusion that this environment is somehow good for you.

 

Dare I say I have thoroughly, thoroughly enjoyed the market turbulence this year.

  1. Life has been so much more exciting, witnessing such historic events and being a part of the action, as opposed to when I started everything went up and it was relatively boring.
  2. I have learnt so much more this year than all the former ones, this is the first year I've looked in detail at all the FICC products outside my asset class and how they all tie in together for a macro backdrop. Also during a bull market people can be sloppy and lazy, now a lot more attentive to detail.
  3. I've always been very competitive, and my happiness is largely based on my relative standing vs my peer group. So many of my university peers have been laid off or left, whilst my career's still going well, which makes me look (and feel) much better.
  4. There are too many mediocre 'dead weight' people in this industry which makes it look less prestigious. This crisis has differentiated the people who can withstand extreme pressure and those that crack. Incoming grad headcounts massively lower means they'll select a small handful of top people and the industry will be deemed more exclusive and competitive, once the dust settles.

Two things are annoying me though - firstly my bank has not laid off anywhere enough people, wish they would can every surplus needless mediocre employee to further increase our bonus pool per capita - everyone agrees with this here but won't openly admit it.

Secondly is the way the media have portrayed this, that everyone in the entire industry is royally screwed. When I tell people what I do they'll say stupid sh*t like "Oh dear, surely not a good time to be in that", "So you probably won't have a job by the end of the year?", "So you guys are going to get paid like McDonalds guys this year?" etc. When in reality, where there's losers there's winners, what happened this year couldn't have been better for my career, my bonus will still be a multiple of last year's, and there's no realisation that the defensive resilient 'rounded' banks have never been in a better position, in the longer term.

=== 23yr old Associate

=== 23yr old Associate
 

Kuka,

You do realize that if your firm chooses to lay people that could very well include you?

You're the same one who said that your firm (and I know which one but for the sake of privacy I'll keep it to myself) referred to itself as a "family"? LMAO...give me a break.

 
Clueless Wanderer:
Kuka,

You do realize that if your firm chooses to lay people that could very well include you?

There is no way I'd get laid off. I'm one of the best-performing, most respected people in my area. My performance is on par with Directors, every year I've got the top possible bonus for my seniority, I was the only person from my intake to get promoted 1 year early, my relationship with the regional head and Global Head is better than my boss has, generally I'm very much considered a rising star and one of the most valuable people where I work. Twice when I had offers for other shops they instantly matched them. I know very well how to play the system, particularly with how much the most senior people like me, so I have no fear about getting laid off. This is another annoying issue with the current crisis, people presuming I could get laid off. Unless an entire desk/division is closed down, the best performers never get laid off.

=== 23yr old Associate

=== 23yr old Associate
 

Kuka, either your group must be a joke or you are flat out lying. I frankly don't know which is more likely. What sort of group are you working in where an associate is working "on par" with Directors? It doesn't make sense. No 23 year old can source deals like a Director. Furthermore, given how popular this site is, you'd have to be an absolute moron to all but identify yourself and act like a smug, superior douchebag while doing it.

 
JuwannaMann:
Kuka, either your group must be a joke or you are flat out lying. I frankly don't know which is more likely. What sort of group are you working in where an associate is working "on par" with Directors? It doesn't make sense. No 23 year old can source deals like a Director. Furthermore, given how popular this site is, you'd have to be an absolute moron to all but identify yourself and act like a smug, superior douchebag while doing it.
I'm not in M&A, I'm in an meritocratic area where Associates can and do indeed outperform Directors. As for your second point, I don't really give a shit- if someone's going to be sad enough to figure out who I am (not hard, fair enough) and go tell my boss / HR, who manage to find something I've written which is a sackable offence (which I don't think anyway), then their loss, there's three banks that have been fighting for me over the last year, even in these times. I don't care if you claim I'm lying, I have nothing to prove to you, and I don't care if I look smug/arrogant, truth is I know very well how to play this game, and have thus thrived and relished in this environment.

=== 23yr old Associate

=== 23yr old Associate
 

The party at the banks is fucking over. After the next bonus (if there is one) everybody will be available and looking for a job. You better lock something in as there won't be many jobs for the next 1-2 years. Oh and if the govts buy equity stakes I am curious just how bad the pay caps will be.

 

If you're in a "meritocratic" area not M&A then you are clearly in markets. In which case if you joined as an analyst at 21 it is perfectly reasonable to be an associate at 23. Furthermore you would understand that titles mean nothing much in that sphere and therefore would not have your signature stating your rank as some sort of badge of honour. But then again we all know you are bsing anyhow...

 
Oconnor:
If you're in a "meritocratic" area not M&A then you are clearly in markets. In which case if you joined as an analyst at 21 it is perfectly reasonable to be an associate at 23. Furthermore you would understand that titles mean nothing much in that sphere and therefore would not have your signature stating your rank as some sort of badge of honour. But then again we all know you are bsing anyhow...
The fact that I'm in markets does not attract from the fact that being made Associate by age 23 at a tier-1 bank is an achievement. The number of people who start as an Analyst age 21 in the front office of a tier-1, having not had to do a MSc, take a year out to apply etc is fairly low, the number who make Associate by 23 there is pretty small. I don't care if you have a problem that I'm proud of my personal goals (next one: to own a 2nd property and be VP by 25) that drive me.

=== 23yr old Associate

=== 23yr old Associate
 

kuka im real curious what you trade. PM it to me if you like.

"Oh the ladies ever tell you that you look like a fucking optical illusion" - Frank Slaughtery 25th Hour.
 

"Pissant farmer"? Unless you grow your own food, you should reflect on the condescension of this statement the next time you eat food, which will no doubt be from the labor of the "pissant farmer" who is, by the way, most likely part of a major corporation involved in sophisticated commodities derivatives to ensure that your $500,000/year income is sufficient for purchasing sustenance next year.

Array
 

My dad has been a big fan lately of saying something along the lines of "we won't have hit bottom until CNBC has gone off the air and people don't even want to talk about stocks anymore because they just want to forget."

I gotta agree with Mack that this is a lot deeper and more long-term than assholes like b2 are assuming.

 

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