All indications appear to be yes.
Around a decade after its 2000/2001 collapse, Argentina is heading towards disaster again. Poor economic policy and trading relationships are certainly not helping.
Just look at the yields on Argentine bonds right now.
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/argentina-government-bonds
Part of the reason for such high yields is the rapid inflation of the country.
Which is destroying the value of the Argentine Peso.
...yeah, and I think the black makt exchange rate is at least 6 to 1 now...andy would know :-)
not pretty down there.
xoom is 7.4 to 1, real blue rate (usd cash to pesos) around 8.5 to 1, black rate.... 9 or 10 to 1? official rate ~5 to 1
Man, that is brutal. How are things looking from the ground Andy? Are you witnessing the significant inflation on basic goods/services?
Argentina is doing so shitty right now. Inflation is crazy. I live in bolivia and went there in january and my friend went there on march. Within two months, the rate of change was from 5.0 pesos argentinos to 6 pesos argentinos per dollar! Also, look at the argentinian soccer teams. The shitty league reflects their poor economy. In contrast, Brazil's shining economy reflects on the soccer teams. They are bringing on players from Europe, meaning that Brazilian teams are paying equal or even more for their stars.
@bolivian
Interesting way to look at it.
You are correct considering GDP growth is pathetic, particularly given the rate of inflation Argentina is experiencing.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/argentina-gdp-growth.png?s=argqp…
Argentina is facing imminent default now that the appeal court has ruled that it must pay the hold-out "vulture" investors before they are allowed to pay all other restructured bondholders, on a pari passu basis.
The government offered to pay the hold-outs at discounts but this is unlikely to win any sympathy from the court.
We have been tracking this saga on another thread since last year: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/elliot-capital-management-seized-…
Argentina has been feeling it pretty hard. The instability created by the economic situation has only exacerbated the political challenges. People are protesting in the streets, banging pots + pans and blocking roads. Even the military was (and maybe still is) protesting back in late 2012. The country never recovered from its default 10 years ago and appears to be headed the wrong direction at this point. The government is making it incredibly difficult to transfer money out of the country and the black market exchange rate has skyrocketed in the last 1-2 years (the chart tells the story).
Actually Argentina experienced a period of rapid economic recovery and growth in the early part of the last decade, when serious economists and policy makers like Roberto Lavagna were in charge and enforced serious fiscal and monetary restraints on the economy. Unfortunately that did not last long. As soon as I saw that Lavagna was forced to resign under pressure from the late Nestor Kirchner, I knew that things were about to go south again. The difficult economic situation in the country is entirely the fault of the Kirchner regime. I think at this juncture the country is near boiling point again and the imminent default on its foreign debt may well provide the last straw to tip it over. Maybe next up we are gonna see hyperinflation again and the country will scrap the peso and issue yet another new currency. Boy am I glad we get to watch all this go down safely from a distance.
Has anyone ever been to Buenos Aires? I ask because that city is in my top 5 choice for my bachelor party and I don't have any real first hand knowledge about it.
i live here, pm me anytime,
Andy, try and be objective, Rio (which is my favorite city in the World as of now) or Buenos for a bachelor party? What would be the best locale?
Bs.As girls are too cool for school and I would honestly rather go anywhere else. Unless you're paying for sex in which case go right ahead, economic crisis means almost everything's for sale (and you gotta love that black-market dollar rate; go ask the "arbolitos" :) )
Christina Fernandez needs to get cancer and die
Cancer is a horrible disease. I would not wish it upon anyone. However, I would make an exception for Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, as I was delighted to see that cancer got rid of Hugo Chavez, thou it may still take sometime until Venezuela recovers from his legacy.
Maybe they could just throw out of office instead lol. BTW she's pretty hot for a GILF!
@Brandon
Good stuff. Didn't realize there was another thread on it and I realize this has been going on for at least two years now. Just seems like the negatives are taking a hyperbolic trajectory now. I don't see how the country will get out in front and slow it down.
go to Black in Buenos Aires for your bachelor party :) 400 dolla for a lady of the night lol
Somebody is making money in the wine business.
Hey peinvestor, i would like to pm you but i don't have enough points. i would appreciate if i can ask you a couple quick questions privately
Correct. Go to Rio for the beaches. Go to BA for the beautiful women everywhere you look -- and the best meat of your life.
BA rocks, the meat is awesome. I can't wait to go back. Did seem to find that most of the women in BA are not big fans of Americans / Brits, tend to be a little snooty, maybe just my experience. Lots of carefree expat girls though...
It's seemed like everyone's been taking stability in developing countries for granted as Europe has been having it's troubles. It'll be interesting to see how markets would react to a Latin American default. There would definitely be less systemic risk than if it were a European country, but everything's so fragile now that who knows.
gota control that velocity of money
1) Withdraw USD funds from offshore accounts in Uruguay 2) Physically smuggle the cash into Argentina via a shithole like colon or concepción del uruguay 3) Buy a ranch with that awesome black rate (100k = 700-900k?) 4) Get fat on awesome Argentinean meat, dulce de leche and party like hell
5) Get kidnapped by "secuestro express" and get shot in the head even after your family had already paid ransom in full-- this is a scenario all too common to many Argentinian families. In the new democratic Argentina law and order is considered passe and offensive and any attempt to protect the innocents or punish the criminals is considered oppression and intolerance. It is no wonder that crime has been skyrocketing.
Man, you are quite a downer haha.
Come on maaaan... ur making argentina look like as if its as secure as one of those mexican border towns controlled by drug-lords...
I just un-invited you to my awesome imaginary midget tossing party in my kick-ass Argentinean ranch. And no, you wont be invited to this year's nandu hunt either !
Gotta load up on some "EUR/ARS".
Wouldn't touch the EUR with a 50-ft pole.
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