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Comments (99)

Most Helpful
  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 15, 2020 - 2:37pm

What's going to be housed there? Not to worry though - all the NYC/CA types moving to FL and TX are going to bring their policies with them. It's astonishing that some of the most commonly cited reasons for moving are taxes, COL, quality of life....and now they're going to vote for governors and mayors who are openly looking to raise taxes. 

Dec 15, 2020 - 2:39pm

I'd play devils advocate and say that this may not be true to a certain extent. A lot of people leaving have seen the result of the policies enacted, and may be open to keeping the status quo in the place they intentionally moved to.
Additionally - we may see corporations like JPMC and others lobby to keep the status quo, or else the relocation rationale is invalidated

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 15, 2020 - 2:49pm

Hoping you're right because I am planning a move. Can't keep getting smoked in taxes to live in this shit hole anymore. My BB pays the same at each office so...anyone saying NYC is going to get back on is feet anytime soon is dreaming. 

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Dec 22, 2020 - 11:21am

Actually, the data showed native Texans went blue by a slight margin, so Beto would have won if not for out-of-state immigrants. I think this is partly because millions of conservatives have moved to Texas over the past 20 years instead of going to NYC/LA/SF. More recent movers in the past 5 years, who are younger, trend blue though because millennials lean left. The Texas GOP could have a problem relatively soon since every year, half a million young Texans turn 18 and they are much more diverse and blue than the older generations.

Dec 25, 2020 - 5:02pm

From what I understand, Texas is turning purplish not because of people moving there but because of the younger people who grew up in Texas. I believe I saw the stats that showed those relocating to Texas, for example, were more likely to vote Republican in Texas elections. 

Array

  • Analyst 1 in AM - Equities
Dec 15, 2020 - 7:15pm

YES GREAT IDEA! BUILD THE WALL ON THE BEACH!!!!

Dec 16, 2020 - 3:28am

South Wall

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

  • Investment Analyst in PE - Other
Dec 17, 2020 - 1:01am

It was the no nonsense extremely tough stance on crime and fiscal responsibility republicans that made nyc what it is today from the absolute shithole it was in the 70s and 80s

Dec 17, 2020 - 1:04am

Liberal Democrats have been the ones in control after the 70s and 80s, not Republicans? NYC has continued to further solidify in a Democratic leaning since that time, both with the citizens and elected officials. Look at both sources in recent years compared to the 70s and 80s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_New_York_City

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_New_York

Dec 17, 2020 - 4:33pm

Ugh, this again.  There have been dozens of pieces of research done on the decline in crime in US urban areas since the '80s.  Not one of them credits "no nonsense" policing with a majority of the change - most estimates of its effect range from 0 to about 25%.  Also, crime declined in almost every single urban area of the US since the '80s, whether they were controlled by Democrats or Republicans.  I am not crediting Democrats with the change either - just saying that "Giuliani saved NYC" is empirically inaccurate.  His policies likely helped, but this was a national phenomenon driven by many factors (lower birth rates, fewer unwanted pregnancies, removal of lead, aging of the population, etc).  

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  • Intern in IB - Gen
Dec 17, 2020 - 10:04am

Moderate Democrats were never the problem ... It's just the far left ones that want to raise taxes through the roof and are sponsored by DSA. Chicago is next. 

Dec 17, 2020 - 10:47am

Edit: my bad. I thought this post was calling Miami the greatest city in America. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 10:58am

The "liberals" of that era you are discussing are a far cry from today. I have no vitriol or anything along those lines for democrats, that would be immature. NYC liberal politicians are not "democrats."

Dec 17, 2020 - 1:27am

This is actually a valid point - Jamie Dimon and most of the top wall street execs donate and vote Democrat (even though they criticize the Democrat tax policies). Them moving their businesses to a no-tax red state to benefit and then voting to undo the state's policies is hypocrisy at its highest.

If he really wanted the weather with the same tax policies he could just move to California. 

Dec 17, 2020 - 2:14am

How is it hypocrisy if they do criticize the Democrat tax policies? If they said the Democratic Party is perfect, that's a different story, but they pointed out the flaws. And it's like calling Republicans on welfare hypocrites. You can identify with a party yet use benefits the other provides more. Another thing I have to add is that the tax issue is not necessary a Democratic thing-it's an urban/big city thing. Urban areas have higher tax policies. This is a trend generally seen around the world, so it's not a Democrat made thing. Do you know any developed countries that have lower tax rates in their most urban areas, with the most activity and businesses, compared to their less urban ones?

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 11:00am

You are so far off base it is incredible. Democrat and republican politicans are on party lines w/r/t taxes. 

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 11:03am

Humor me...can you cite democratic mayors and governors who would like to lower taxes? It's a big city thing? Yeah, Bernie Sanders is taking the 6 train right now...give me a break. 

  • Associate 2 in PE - Other
Dec 17, 2020 - 10:21am

OP you don't even live in NY and that article literally didn't say shit... Why is everyone roused up?

Dec 17, 2020 - 11:32am

Are they not building a new HQ in nyc like right now? I'd be shocked if they actually tried to move banking, trading, and research roles out of new york.

Dayman?
  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 11:43am

I'm praying they do. I want the dominos to start falling because I've been doing some BOE math lately and I can't keep living here. I'm giving up millions over the course of my career and NYC has turned into an absolute shit hole. Idk how people think it's going to recover in a year to where it was in 2019. 

I'd like to leave my (unborn) kids enough money so they don't have to worry, so their kids can go to any college debt free, all of that good stuff. All of the money I'm paying in NYC taxes could do so much good for generations and instead DeBlasio is blowing it on god knows what. Cuomo confirmed taxes are going up, I don't see the value proposition anymore. 

Dec 17, 2020 - 12:30pm

I highly doubt this will happen. Miami's weather alone is not sustainable for year round business. I guess people would wfh or summer in NY (aside from August holiday) during hurricane season which is going to get worse as climate change progresses....

Plus there is so much already invested in NYC and after COVID it will go back to being an international hub, it is too big to fail.

Plus one of the main reasons NYC is THE business hub is because of the diversity in industry which makes it easier to build connections, source new deals, and have direct access to people from a wide array of industry without having to travel. 

Also Ray McGuire For Mayor 2021!!!! 

Dec 17, 2020 - 5:03pm

I am an idealist so I will still stick with him. I doubt white collar moderates are going to let another useless person in office without a fight. 

I definitely take accountability that I did not vote in the last mayoral election and most people I know did not either. Will not make that mistake again...

Most people I know(moderate conservatives and liberals) are very pro-Ray, but they are all in finance and business. But people will cut their noses to spite their faces and push a candidate who will make unrealistic and quite dangerous promises to appeal to far-left voters. I love NYC and I am a forever optimist so I believe it will come back with proper leadership but if we do get someone worse than De Blasio I will have to reconsider living here full-time. 

I just had to cut off a friend after I saw her berate her own mother on FB after he mom voiced a cogent argument where she acknowledged police brutality yet did not want the police abolished. Her own daughter/my former friend went on this non-sensical rant  about how criminals should be free and tried to embarrass her own mom by questioning her allegiance to progress and change. It was very cringe.....

I hate that we have gone so far on both sides and moderates have become an isolated/ignored group as well as villiainized by both parties. 

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Dec 20, 2020 - 12:54pm

Miami's weather is not sustainable for year round business? You think if its hot outside people will sit in their house and cry because they don't want to get sunburnt? Horrible take. Sounds a hell of a lot better than freezing cold winters.

Dec 17, 2020 - 4:27pm

As a Florida native, this would be a dumb move. There's a reason why I left Miami. Seriously, it's only a nice place to vacation and party in. That's about it. Not the best for career opportunities or quality of living. Wages are ass. It's also an extension of Cuba. 

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Dec 17, 2020 - 5:20pm

Colorist, racist and they tend to exclusively keep to themselves. Born in Tampa and have had enough of these people that refuse to interact with the broader society because they feel their culture is a viable excuse for being a dickhead. 

Dec 17, 2020 - 5:03pm

I doubt they are going to move to Miami.  The article says that people under 30 and over 55 want to move to Miami.  People between 30 and 55 do not want to move to Miami because the school system is not very good.  Only the old people and younger ones who want to party like it is 1999 want to move. 

http://www.series65examtutor.com
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  • Analyst 1 in AM - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 5:49pm

I hope people leave NYC. Maybe it will bring the COL down for the rest of us. More housing supply = lower rent and restaurants and businesses will have to compete even more amongst themselves for the fewer number of residents/customers. Therefore, lower prices. I have my friends there. I don't need other people. Sounds like a pretty good situation to me except taxes suck. But taxes suck in general. I don't know if that alone justifies leaving an otherwise decent situation.

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 5:52pm

I don't understand why people aren't seeing the big picture here. NYC is built on X demand, it is not meant for this kind of demand shock. Things are going to readjust more than you realize. It's not going to be a "decent situation." You're thinking all of the restaurants are just going to lower their prices, there aren't going to be many restaurants at this run rate. 

  • Analyst 1 in AM - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 6:00pm

Even at the worst of the shutdowns, the restaurants are and were still doing pick up and delivery. Those restaurants that you ordered delivery from every Tuesday etc are still going to be doing the same thing. It is simply a more aggressive competition-driven change in the landscape. Those with favorable characteristics will survive for now and thrive in a post-vaccine environment because it's competitors who were not able to get the same quantity of customers did not survive. The customer pool didn't go away, it just shrunk. Therefore, there are still customers to be allocated but those who offer better value will receive a higher allocation.

Dec 20, 2020 - 10:07am

Was amusing to read this civilized exchange between two 1st year analysts, especially knowing you seem to be on opposite sides of the same industry (AM, S&T).

To be clear, this kind of thinking from AM analyst ("it's probably a good thing that lots of people are leaving, life will be more manageable for those of us staying") very, very rarely leads to good outcomes. My well-meaning but economically illiterate Communist friends (I'm not exaggerating) adopt this kind of thinking when they read about deflation in the news: "oh great, maybe I can afford rent/buy a house now". Back to the original point of the article, well, the friends I cite here are also the kind who think that one-off wealth taxes to fund eternal social services are also highly effective, so ultimately it does lead to a vicious cycle of socioeconomic self-destruction,. 

Everyone thinks the downsides will happen to someone else, not them, until it's your wages/jobs that are being cut because of the negative demand shock, not to mention you suddenly start coughing hard and can't distinguish a fart from roast chicken, and boom, COVID-positive. S&T analyst seems to have understood this better.

(The kudos for having a civilized exchange are sincere). 

The truth is you're the weak. And I'm the tyranny of evil men. But I'm tryin', Ringo. I'm tryin' real hard to be the shepherd.
  • Analyst 1 in AM - Equities
Dec 20, 2020 - 10:27am

I do want to mention, before everyone reads my posts and suggests I have no big-picture perspective, that I was mostly trolling. While it would be nice to think that this could be a good thing, I am well aware of the broader consequences and understand that this is not a reality. Hence, my last post of the discussion reveals that I believe it will be a mess for next few years with a possibility of long term change for the better if leadership can get their act together and even that's optimistic thinking.

Dec 17, 2020 - 6:08pm

I think NYC as a place to raise kids is dying, but as a place to start a high finance career is going nowhere. It will essentially become a place to "pay your dues" before you escape to the suburbs or another city to start a family.

At least this means prices/rents will likely fall, making life better for juniors a couple years down the line. The market for $3MM+ condos will likely freefall.

Just looking at Zillow, the asking prices of homes in the more distant suburbs (think upper Westchester, Fairfield, Morris, Somerset) have significantly skyrocketed. Homes are spaced out enough with a 2/wk NYC commute very doable (which is what many higher-ups may be doing permanently).

Dec 17, 2020 - 6:42pm

Welcome to all who may be on the way - I love it here!

Please don't bring any blue state politics with you, though. Remember why you're leaving. 

Otherwise, I think it'll be really interesting to see how things develop in the coming months.

  • Analyst 1 in AM - Equities
Dec 17, 2020 - 11:05pm

NYC born and raised with parents and grandparents who were also NYC born and have lived there all their lives in the boroughs. The main thing this pandemic is going to do is root out all the transplants who want the experience of living here but don't contribute to what makes this city great (plenty of people I know who moved here in their 20s and so for work and have stayed throughout the pandemic despite having ties to other areas because they love this city) and the so called "new yorkers" who grew up here but simply did not love it enough to own up to their tag when push came to shove. Hopefully this makes the city enjoyable and more affordable for the rest of us. 

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Dec 19, 2020 - 11:12pm

You guys sound stupid af. Crime changed in the 70s/80s irrespective to the city. Voters vote democratic in cities to get more public services because land is scarce and overpopulation is a thing due to diverse workers. It has nothing to do with the political identity of the rep. Chillout on the dumbass my politics are better.

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