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What’s going to be housed there? Not to worry though - all the NYC/CA types moving to FL and TX are going to bring their policies with them. It’s astonishing that some of the most commonly cited reasons for moving are taxes, COL, quality of life....and now they’re going to vote for governors and mayors who are openly looking to raise taxes. 

 

I’d play devils advocate and say that this may not be true to a certain extent. A lot of people leaving have seen the result of the policies enacted, and may be open to keeping the status quo in the place they intentionally moved to. Additionally - we may see corporations like JPMC and others lobby to keep the status quo, or else the relocation rationale is invalidated

 

Actually, the data showed native Texans went blue by a slight margin, so Beto would have won if not for out-of-state immigrants. I think this is partly because millions of conservatives have moved to Texas over the past 20 years instead of going to NYC/LA/SF. More recent movers in the past 5 years, who are younger, trend blue though because millennials lean left. The Texas GOP could have a problem relatively soon since every year, half a million young Texans turn 18 and they are much more diverse and blue than the older generations.

 
Controversial

With that logic, wouldn’t you have to also credit liberals for making it, as you claim, the greatest city in America before? Pretty much goes for every single influential/big city in America.

 

Ugh, this again.  There have been dozens of pieces of research done on the decline in crime in US urban areas since the '80s.  Not one of them credits "no nonsense" policing with a majority of the change - most estimates of its effect range from 0 to about 25%.  Also, crime declined in almost every single urban area of the US since the '80s, whether they were controlled by Democrats or Republicans.  I am not crediting Democrats with the change either - just saying that "Giuliani saved NYC" is empirically inaccurate.  His policies likely helped, but this was a national phenomenon driven by many factors (lower birth rates, fewer unwanted pregnancies, removal of lead, aging of the population, etc).  

 

Moderate Democrats were never the problem ... It's just the far left ones that want to raise taxes through the roof and are sponsored by DSA. Chicago is next. 

 

The “liberals” of that era you are discussing are a far cry from today. I have no vitriol or anything along those lines for democrats, that would be immature. NYC liberal politicians are not “democrats.”

 

This is actually a valid point - Jamie Dimon and most of the top wall street execs donate and vote Democrat (even though they criticize the Democrat tax policies). Them moving their businesses to a no-tax red state to benefit and then voting to undo the state's policies is hypocrisy at its highest.

If he really wanted the weather with the same tax policies he could just move to California. 

 

How is it hypocrisy if they do criticize the Democrat tax policies? If they said the Democratic Party is perfect, that’s a different story, but they pointed out the flaws. And it’s like calling Republicans on welfare hypocrites. You can identify with a party yet use benefits the other provides more. Another thing I have to add is that the tax issue is not necessary a Democratic thing—it’s an urban/big city thing. Urban areas have higher tax policies. This is a trend generally seen around the world, so it’s not a Democrat made thing. Do you know any developed countries that have lower tax rates in their most urban areas, with the most activity and businesses, compared to their less urban ones?

 

You are so far off base it is incredible. Democrat and republican politicans are on party lines w/r/t taxes. 

 

Humor me...can you cite democratic mayors and governors who would like to lower taxes? It’s a big city thing? Yeah, Bernie Sanders is taking the 6 train right now...give me a break. 

 

I’m praying they do. I want the dominos to start falling because I’ve been doing some BOE math lately and I can’t keep living here. I’m giving up millions over the course of my career and NYC has turned into an absolute shit hole. Idk how people think it’s going to recover in a year to where it was in 2019. 

I’d like to leave my (unborn) kids enough money so they don’t have to worry, so their kids can go to any college debt free, all of that good stuff. All of the money I’m paying in NYC taxes could do so much good for generations and instead DeBlasio is blowing it on god knows what. Cuomo confirmed taxes are going up, I don’t see the value proposition anymore. 

 

I highly doubt this will happen. Miami's weather alone is not sustainable for year round business. I guess people would wfh or summer in NY (aside from August holiday) during hurricane season which is going to get worse as climate change progresses....

Plus there is so much already invested in NYC and after COVID it will go back to being an international hub, it is too big to fail.

Plus one of the main reasons NYC is THE business hub is because of the diversity in industry which makes it easier to build connections, source new deals, and have direct access to people from a wide array of industry without having to travel. 

Also Ray McGuire For Mayor 2021!!!! 

 

There is 0% he will get elected...He is not even remotely close to as left as one would need to be to get that job. 

 

I am an idealist so I will still stick with him. I doubt white collar moderates are going to let another useless person in office without a fight. 

I definitely take accountability that I did not vote in the last mayoral election and most people I know did not either. Will not make that mistake again...

Most people I know(moderate conservatives and liberals) are very pro-Ray, but they are all in finance and business. But people will cut their noses to spite their faces and push a candidate who will make unrealistic and quite dangerous promises to appeal to far-left voters. I love NYC and I am a forever optimist so I believe it will come back with proper leadership but if we do get someone worse than De Blasio I will have to reconsider living here full-time. 

I just had to cut off a friend after I saw her berate her own mother on FB after he mom voiced a cogent argument where she acknowledged police brutality yet did not want the police abolished. Her own daughter/my former friend went on this non-sensical rant  about how criminals should be free and tried to embarrass her own mom by questioning her allegiance to progress and change. It was very cringe.....

I hate that we have gone so far on both sides and moderates have become an isolated/ignored group as well as villiainized by both parties. 

 

Miami's weather is not sustainable for year round business? You think if its hot outside people will sit in their house and cry because they don't want to get sunburnt? Horrible take. Sounds a hell of a lot better than freezing cold winters.

 

As a Florida native, this would be a dumb move. There's a reason why I left Miami. Seriously, it's only a nice place to vacation and party in. That's about it. Not the best for career opportunities or quality of living. Wages are ass. It's also an extension of Cuba. 

 

Colorist, racist and they tend to exclusively keep to themselves. Born in Tampa and have had enough of these people that refuse to interact with the broader society because they feel their culture is a viable excuse for being a dickhead. 

 

I doubt they are going to move to Miami.  The article says that people under 30 and over 55 want to move to Miami.  People between 30 and 55 do not want to move to Miami because the school system is not very good.  Only the old people and younger ones who want to party like it is 1999 want to move. 

 

I hope people leave NYC. Maybe it will bring the COL down for the rest of us. More housing supply = lower rent and restaurants and businesses will have to compete even more amongst themselves for the fewer number of residents/customers. Therefore, lower prices. I have my friends there. I don’t need other people. Sounds like a pretty good situation to me except taxes suck. But taxes suck in general. I don’t know if that alone justifies leaving an otherwise decent situation.

 

I don't understand why people aren't seeing the big picture here. NYC is built on X demand, it is not meant for this kind of demand shock. Things are going to readjust more than you realize. It's not going to be a "decent situation." You're thinking all of the restaurants are just going to lower their prices, there aren't going to be many restaurants at this run rate. 

 

Even at the worst of the shutdowns, the restaurants are and were still doing pick up and delivery. Those restaurants that you ordered delivery from every Tuesday etc are still going to be doing the same thing. It is simply a more aggressive competition-driven change in the landscape. Those with favorable characteristics will survive for now and thrive in a post-vaccine environment because it’s competitors who were not able to get the same quantity of customers did not survive. The customer pool didn’t go away, it just shrunk. Therefore, there are still customers to be allocated but those who offer better value will receive a higher allocation.

 

Was amusing to read this civilized exchange between two 1st year analysts, especially knowing you seem to be on opposite sides of the same industry (AM, S&T).

To be clear, this kind of thinking from AM analyst ("it's probably a good thing that lots of people are leaving, life will be more manageable for those of us staying") very, very rarely leads to good outcomes. My well-meaning but economically illiterate Communist friends (I'm not exaggerating) adopt this kind of thinking when they read about deflation in the news: "oh great, maybe I can afford rent/buy a house now". Back to the original point of the article, well, the friends I cite here are also the kind who think that one-off wealth taxes to fund eternal social services are also highly effective, so ultimately it does lead to a vicious cycle of socioeconomic self-destruction,. 

Everyone thinks the downsides will happen to someone else, not them, until it's your wages/jobs that are being cut because of the negative demand shock, not to mention you suddenly start coughing hard and can't distinguish a fart from roast chicken, and boom, COVID-positive. S&T analyst seems to have understood this better.

(The kudos for having a civilized exchange are sincere).