OnlyFans: is the simp market gonna crash?
You can find dozens of articles about girls leaving their jobs to make $10K, $50K, hell even $100 fucking K per month on OnlyFans. Ugly girls are selling pics of their feet at a high profit. Based on the number of likes on a picture that can only be liked by her Only Fans subscribers, I modeled Belle Delphine's operating income and it's insane.
Even if you subtract the cost of all those fancy clothes and shit she clears more than a mil per year.
As you see it doesn't take many simps to become a millionaire but still; the number of girls selling pictures of themselves is growing exponentially which means that competition is increasing in the thot market - it will soon be impossible for a normal girl to just sell nudes; Belle Delphine has an edge in that regard because she created a "character" and has acquired a community of devoted followers.
How do you think the simp/thot market will evolve? Personally I believe that
- The number of simps will keep increasing; although at a slower rate: there are still some simps who haven't switched from traditional porn platforms to OnlyFans
- Competition between Thots will require them to innovate and operate a product differentiation; they will have to put more effort in growing their simp community by becoming original content creators like Belle Delphine
Edit: found a website with OnlyThots statistics https://onlycreator.com/top/earnings
This one: https://onlycreator.com/user/misshannahnicoleee is supposedly making 1M a month
I don’t understand OnlyFans, why do these guys pay to see nude girls? There is plenty of free shit online. Or just get a prostitute, Belle Delphine will never notice you, let alone love you but the prostitute will at least pretend. Change my mind.
I definitely share your opinion, but Belle Delphine and other Only Fans thots actually interact actively with their simps. Belle Delphine is active on Twitter and if I'm not wrong will respond to all the messages sent by her subscribers. I've seen cases in which Only Thots sell dick pic comments, i.e. a simp sends a dick pic, pays something like $5, and receives a grade and a comment from the thot.
Oh okay, I’ve never used the app in my life so I wasn’t aware. Still a lot of these guys should just have sex with a prostitute. Even better, they should get a a real girl to be in a relationship with, but at least have real sex, even if it’s with a prostitute.
hahahahahaha what that's hilarious
I need suggestions. In your opinion, which prostitutes provided the best services?
The ones that I don’t have to say, “don’t just stare at it, eat it.” to, they already know.
EJ Entertainment
To answer your question, I think what you laid out is reasonable. It’s not good enough to just be hot and have followers, now you gotta have a character to make you stand out.
Same concept as Youtube, it's fine right now for some people. As more thots become aware of this, they'll flood the market and very few people will make favorable margins.
I think this pretty sexist guys, it's no laughing matter. Why isn't there representation for men among the top earners on OnlyFans??? This just doesn't seem right, men and womxn are supposed to be equal! There must be some systematic discrimination going on here!!!
Equal pay for equal work!
Goldman TMT hire this man.
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Even if you assume she has a perfect 1:1 like:subscriber ratio, she still makes +370K per year which corresponds to more than the average salary of an investment banking VP.
Now prepare yourself to be ass blasted: her operating costs are practically zero, because she asks her simps to pay for everything she wants.
Here's a link to here wishlist: https://www.amazon.co.uk/hz/wishlist/ls/3JHMQ8BMUAUDQ?ref_=wl_share
Comment removed
This phenomenon has fascinated me from the beginning. It didn't make sense to me why a guy would pay so much to see a girl strip, etc. But after watching this video,
, it's clear that men are really, really lonely (more than I thought) and women are now just learning about this and finding new ways to exploit it more and more (they admit this, and know what they are doing). These guys don't want porn, they want the connection (even if it's fake) to a girl, they want the "girlfriend experience" so if they can't get it in real life they will settle for a virtual relationship. I read this trend started in Japan over 10 years ago, so I would expect this to be a growing market in the west. I assume the pandemic and social isolation has just accelerated this trend.Never mind I googled it, interesting watch
So you think that simps are mostly Western loners? I was talking with a guy working in the porn industry (he runs websites, not an actor) and he was telling me he gets a lot of traffic from India and some Arab countries. I think that India has insane potential in terms of simp market: GDP per capita is steadily increasing, Internet penetration is good and men are basically unable to have access to sex until they go through an arranged marriage in their thirties.
show bob and vagene
Would beg to differ here. Quick Google search for PH visitors by country shows that India ranks at a paltry #15, which is particularly low given it has the 2nd biggest population in the world. India is also a much less 'sexualized' nation in sense that while you see pictures of nude / half nude women everywhere in the West, that is rarely the case in India & many underdeveloped Asian countries. Arranged marriages also FYI occur in mid-20s or so in India and likewise de-risk possibility of finding a partner to most Indians, which means the need to have pre-marital sex is lower. While this sounds crazy in the US, different countries have very different cultural norms that impact consumption. Also the price of top OF subs is way too high for India even given rising incomes.
Quick example, cost of a Spotify music sub in US is $10 while in India it is $2. Likewise unless OF thots reduce subs prices for EM nations, no way an avg or even upper-middle class India guy is paying $35 a month to subscribe to the likes of Bella Delphine. $35 per month is damn expensive even here in U.S., most Indians won't can't / won't want to pay for it, esp. when the alternative is piracy / free videos on the deluge of porn sites. I agree with you that increasing internet penetration & per capita increases will support an influx of traffic, but I don't think the potential is as large as one might think / may take a lot longer to materialize. Please pardon typos
If the floodgates for this content ever open to the Chinese market its time to invest. There literally aren't enough women in the country for all of the men, so I'm sure there are many desperate and lonely ones willing to sign up for the service.
Madden, CoD, Weed, Music always defeats loneliness.
Madden, CoD, Weed, Music always defeats loneliness.
Those are all lonely, isolated activities... that looks like a recipe for loneliness and depression.
Why do you say "exploit"? Lonely people want something, the market supplies it. Where is the exploitation?
This was an interesting and simultaneously incredibly depressing watch. Thanks for sharing.
Can you add in worst/mid/best case scenarios for the like:customer ratio. It seems to be a little optimistic right now.
Some sensitivity tables would be great as well.
Reposting:
Even with 100% of her subscribers liking her posts, she generates a net profit of more than $370K/year and has practically no operating costs because simps pay for everything she wants.
Very impressive, thank you for this analysis.
I mean basically it's still wild west and easy to make a quick buck. Only issue it seems with this industry is that it will be hard to pivot unless you lateral into other media/influencer type roles, which is even more competitive. Of course you can make enough to retire in two years, but if you take the risk and fail it basically becomes impossible to do anything else. Risk tolerance must be extremely high.
Honestly the exit opps of thots are of little importance. Most if not all of them would earn the minimum wage if it wasn't for Only Fans.
Yes, prostitution can be very lucrative, what’s your point?
I'd bet the longer term threat to this (and IG models) is AI sex dolls. Saw a reddit article referencing this doll called 'Harmony' which they can make to your custom specifications (body type, hair color, eye color, etc.) and can actually hold a conversation because of advanced AI tech.
I think Bizkitgto hit the nail on the head when he said that ultimately men as a group are a lot lonelier than you might think. What's causing this? Haven't done a ton of research but from broader related thematic trends I'd think:
1. Automation & move to high-skill jobs has left out a large segment of population who are now either not earning much or unemployed - very unattractive prospect for a female to want to date. As cities have high density of these jobs, higher COL likewise makes it harder for people not earning high salaries to sustainably live in them (where dating pool is also the biggest)
2. Tech has made us more socially isolated (can spend most of your free time in the digital bubble - NFLX / Video Games / etc), all of which exist today in an incomparably superior capacity to 20yrs ago. Rise of internet and faster connection speeds has been the driver of this as it's unlocked new paradigms. In some ways this has also made us more socially awkward, who's going to be more adept with people over time (ceteris paribus), the guy who spends 80% of his free time around other people or the guy who spends 80% of his free time in solitary activities enabled by internet?
3. Related to #2, while porn has always been around it hasn't been anywhere near the level of quality it is today. 1080p quality is truly incredible, take a look at pornos from the 80s/90s and tell me that in any way compares. Also key to mention that today it is free vs. in 1980s / 90s without ubiquity of internet you had to pay for such material --> unleashes latent demand along w/ supply as hot girls from HS with no prospects can monetize. Important to bear in mind this is not a perfect substitute for a relationship, rather a "just good enough, most of the time" where you can go home and jerk it w/out feeling too bad about that 7 at the bar who turned you down (or maybe you skip even approaching her)
There's probably more I'm missing here, but I'm not doing more due diligence on this topic lol. I would not be too surprised if by 2050 a good percentage of population either owned or had a sex doll experience. As I said, stuff like OnlyFans / IG models will do well for a long time in the interim but AI is ultimately going to be taking over a big chunk of what they do (won't be eliminated entirely but their rev streams will hit a downward inflection point). It's going to be an interesting next 50yrs, curious where the investable opportunities might be (although it would be weird debating the power law economics of IG thots to triangulate monetization potential with another analyst...)
Would the dolls drive down the physical market? Or just drive the lower end of the market out and so only ultra high end stuff is left for the rich?
When you say physical market I assume you mean lower-end sex toys like flesh lights, etc.? Would think there would always be a physical sex toy market for those who are too poor but would ultimately trade up if their disposable incomes increase. Ultimately it will be tiered. I'm sure there'll be sex dolls with all the bells and whistles at $20k+ for the rich (maybe even $100k+ for the ultra-rich, but who knows what sort of functionality / premium materials / servicing levels they can build in).
But if a large percentage of the market 'needs' this tech, it will have to come down to be affordable. Think of the mainframe computers and how expensive those were, which were eventually converted into still very expensive PCs ($2k+) in 90s. Today, you can get a decent laptop for $300-400.
Don't know what the cadence will be but ultimately to get to mass affordability there needs to be a Harmony-level doll that is in-reach for majority, perhaps $1-2k (somewhere around cost of a Peloton bike for instance). If you say think that AI sex dolls will be a true substitute for actual women at some point, then that vastly decreases sensitivity to pricing. If such a doll lasts you 10yrs on avg before depreciating to salvage value, then that should easily open up the expenditure to $20-25k (what you might spend on a car). The value here is actual companionship that a lot of people consider to be a close enough substitute; who the hell wants to be alone, why not pay $2k a year to have companionship? This would be the holy grail. I think this is where we are heading in the ultra-long term but no idea when this will be, could be 2050 or could be 2100.
For some who are denying this shift is occurring, I'd argue you are missing the larger point. Not only do we have the trends mentioned in above post, but from a social perspective a lot of things that were once thought of as 'weird' have been normalized as we move into a more liberal world. 20yrs ago transgender rights was totally marginalized but today is considered a central social issue. Harvard came out with a report a while back predicting destruction of the nuclear family in a few decades & polygamy to be normalized.
It's not that far a reach from some of these things that might unnerve some folks (I for one find polygamy to be very strange but nothing I can do about it if that's the way history is moving, I'm sure my kids and grandkids will have more accepting positions) to say if we get an AI sex doll that can carry on conversations at ~80% the level of a natural human woman and you can construct her to be your ideal women (body type, personality, etc.) with materials that are nearly lifelike that more & more people will jump at it. Googling around, just saw an article (https://nypost.com/2017/08/22/sex-dolls-are-more-popular-than-real-pros…) saying that sex doll hookers were more popular than real prostitutes at one brothel. This is with today's relatively shitty tech. Given pace of AI innovation, imagine what this looks like in a few decades.
Ultimately lot of this is speculative but I do feel that while nuances can be debated directionally these ideas are probably accurate. All said, I'm sure OnlyFans will see growth for a long time as long as they don't mis-execute but LT I think AI will severely hurt this space. We already have AI IG models (https://nypost.com/2020/01/14/sexy-robot-influencers-are-taking-over-in…), which real IG models were pissed about. Well that's just the name of the game.
You mean the real thing ?
I'm just a senior in HS but I slightly disagree with your analysis. I think AI dolls will actually make human OnlyFans sellers even more valuable and in demand. Think about the internal stigma and self-hatred that will stem from an AI relationship. I think people will value human connection more, specifically because of its humanness, after AI robots become a factor.
Is Belle Delphine the origin of the "gamer girl bathwater" thing?
yes, she now sells condoms to her fans with the slogan that they'll never use them
That is hilarious.
I fully support this girl selling used bathwater and branded condoms to morons.
yes, she now sells condoms to her fans with the slogan that they'll never use them
"The Forever Virgin" is the new male market... and it's growing... kids that grew up with the internet are totally addicted to porn, this is more of a GenZ phenomenon as most millennials didn't have high speed porn when they were teens. Lot's of young guys that grew up with porn addiction have reported ED issues. This is kind of a growing issue that's mostly flying under the radar. Not sure how permanent these issues are.
This makes me want to kill myself. I'm slaving over building a cybersecurity company and homebuilding company while working my 9-5 and working on finishing another master's degree. She f*cking shows up with pics and makes millions.
The solution here, my man, is to start sharing pics of those cheeks
Get that money
Yeah this is pretty brutal. I don't think I'm nearly as busy as you w/ 50hrs weeks + 10hrs CFA + 5 hrs additional reading, but even so rest of us are out here hustling to work with our minds while IG / OnlyFans thots getting rich sitting around posting a couple vids
It's not fair but it just kind of is what it is. Getting upset about it won't help you make it, in every gen there's going to be a group of people who benefit from luck (right place, right time, right genetics)
I know Chick Fil A pays better than minimum wage, but I'd think you could get a better side gig than that
They can makes hundreds of thousands, millions, whatever, but at the end of the day they are whores who are laughed at by the rest of society
Don't worry they'll find a beta to marry.
Age of content and "creatives" as some prof said.
Rather pay for PornHub Premium.
I imagine it’s pretty hard to get 5k subscribers at that price point. I bet the vast majority of people on that platform struggle to gain any real traction, and this woman is in the top 1% of earners.
Also the limiting factor here is pirating, like it is for most other content creators.
About your first point, it's hard to say. Look at who those top 1% are. Apart from Belle Delphine, they are either porn stars or average looking girls - big asses and tits, but butterface - who somehow gain traction... They're not exceptional, and I can't really explain how they manage to gain such a fanbase.
I wouldn't say that piracy is a real threat, because simps ain't looking for the content in itself, but the connection with the thot. See the Youtube video above
I've found that in my own life that I'm not that attracted to the women who are next level goddesses (the Giselle Bundchens of the world). Maybe it's because they feel too out of reach or something, but that might explain why these pretty hot girl-next-door types are so popular. They feel attainable.
Ah, that is interesting
Average OnlyFans income is $180/month. Top 1% of accounts make 33% of the money. Belle Delphine is an anomaly. It’s kind of like a foreigner looking at Bill Gates and thinking that’s the typical American income.
https://influencermarketinghub.com/onlyfans-stats/
Those who pirate probably aren't the target audience. It's for those who actually "engage".
On a serious note, I really worry about the damage OF will do to both young men and young women. Encourages mass complacency for young men and is just straight pathetic. Damages young women content creators forever. Psychological problems that arise from being at the very least commercial sex worker adjacent and long-term reputational damages in the dating market. If I ever found out a girl I was seeing had an OF (even inactive), it would be an instant rejection / break up tbh. Can't have the future mother of your children have that in her past.
Porn has always been an option for women and simps have always existed even if they were called something else.
I think even the Ancient Greeks had burlesque dancers/ strippers. Even penguins prostitute themselves out for some cool looking rocks. It's biology.
I hear you - oldest profession and all. Just worry that it's becoming way too mainlined
Porn has always been an option for women
I don't think it's been mainstreamed like this before, which has long term consequences for these young girls and I don't think they're even aware of it... YOLO!!
The effects on young men are also something that could be long lasting or permanent (porn addiction, socialization, etc).
Do you feel OF hurts IG models over time? Potentially space is growing fast enough that it is de minimus but perhaps there is some share loss for IG models as they just post whatever they want vs. OF which customizes / personalizes and ventures into porn territory (which IG usually does not, at least not 'enough' once services like OF scale & present a superior alternative for lonely men)
Also are there sites where you can check if girl you're seeing has done shit like this? Would bet with the advent of services like OF there are a lot more guys that don't want thots / former thots to be the mother of their children (incl. me).
It's hard because I would assume most girls would use an alias on OF for this very reason. Maybe you can use a program like TinEye or something.
With the development of facial recognition. It's only a matter of time before you can search by their features.
I too would have reservations having a family with someone doing this. Considering it's all for the money, maybe they like the attention. But can see why else any girl would do it, and walk away if they are doing well financially.
I think women are underwriting their OnlyFans terminal value with too low of a discount rate.
1) Supply of OnlyFans content creators should grow faster than demand, in my opinion. Individual subscriber growth should slow and subscription costs could decline to stay competitive except for the few creators with strong brand and an already entrenched following. The average e-thot may be quitting her job because she earned $10,000 her first month on OnlyFans, but it is probably incorrect to annualize the figure and extrapolate out.
2) I'm assuming that OnlyFans participation, as a content creator, negatively impacts future non-OnlyFans earnings potential. Unless the girl / guy wants to permanently be in the porn industry, any legitimate employer will probably not hire someone they can subscribe and jerk off to outside of work. I've already seen numerous examples of women reporting they've been fired or suspended after their OnlyFans account was discovered. So, either a lot of people are going to have to get cool about a whole lot of things quickly, or creators need to be more aware of the potential long-term earnings risk of making online porn content.
A quick Google for "average lifetime earnings in US" is approximately $2.7 million. I'm very open to being challenged on this figure, it is the first one I saw reported by Zippia and I didn't dig into it, just FYI to stay candid. Given the above two points, my own thought is that this OnlyFans phenomena is really just "pulling forward" future earnings for account creators and I doubt there is any real long-term potential to out perform the expected lifetime earnings figure.
Excellent analysis, thanks a lot. Imagine having access to Only Fans' statistics and metrics, such as the median duration of a subscription per thot, or the total number of simps and the amount of money paid to thots. OF is pretty much a monopoly at this point, so we could model the entire simp market... Dear god
Are simps the same as cucks?
A simp is like the digital version of a beta orbiter
A simp is the 2020 version of a guy in the friend zone - does stuff for women that you'd do in a relationship, like paying for dinner, or washing her car and filling it with gas...without having the relationship. Basically just a sucker.
So essentially a new way to say beta orbitor lol
Can't wait for some bank to start an equity research coverage group for this market, kind of like how Cowen and Canaccord did for cannabis.
The bank that manages to IPO OnlyFans will become a top BB for this only reason
That IPO would raise so much money
Simps should be deported.
I really think there is a ton of synergistic value between a pornhub and onlyfans merger. Pornhub parentco(Mindgeek) is alreqdy a very acquisitive company so I think with the right deal structure could go after onlyfans. Great cross selling opportunities and cost synergies. Pornhub can basically integrate the entire onlyfans platform with their premium performers library . Not to mention with other mindgeek portcos (xvideos, brazzers, digital playground etc.)
Would probably get caught up by regulators on antitrust concerns. No company should have that much power over the simp and cuck markets.
Hmm couple concerns on this (could turn out to be manageable but topics to look into if either of them decide to merge):
1. Do OF girls want to be thought of as being porn stars? Can see how many rationalize it as just making a couple extra bucks on OF but don't want to take the leap of saying they're porn stars (which is what being on PH would mean)
2. OF girls can't monetize nearly as well on PH as most content is free. This would cause a bunch of tension between content creators and the distributor (PH)
3. Concerned that the cost synergies would turn out to be smaller than expected. Still need to maintain the OF platform (unless you want risk from Q1 above or simply higher churn which creates opportunities for entrants) so at best you'll likely just see some back-office synergies, probably not worth justifying the acquisition
On a separate note, do we know how much market share MindGeek has? Whether that is in $$ terms of in share of time? Would be interested in seeing quantitative breakdown of competitors if it's out there
I know two friends who do OF. they don't see themselves as pr0n stars. they don't even take their clothes off entirely, only down to the last layer. they explained it to me like this:
- they are attractive and have a huge following on IG, FB, snapchat and TikTok
- the teaser content and "day in the life style" shots go onto regular social media
- they realized that 1000 men message them daily and ask for foot pics, undie pics, etc
- to cater towards these people they decided to offer these kind of services at OF
At best, most are soft core actresses with a hint towards "girl next door".
There are some professionals on there though who go "all the way", including escorting, gf experience and the rest.
The biggest difference to actual adult actresses would be the "personal" connection, you can message them, some of them do real life group meet-ups in safe locations, some of them sing in public, and more. The "girl next door" appeal makes some men believe this is a better deal than being infatuated with some anonymous pr0n actress. These girls are very attractive - but they are girlfriend level cute and seem "more real" compared to the "fake" (enhanced) hardcore variant.
Also forgot to add, onlyfans was actually started and is ran by a Barclay's ib mds son. His father helped with the seed investing. (Name is Guy Stokely)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/meet-the-king-of-homemade-porn-a-ban…
Pretty much assured that barclays gets left lead on the ipo
I honestly think the simp market is just getting started. Thots are becoming normalized in society. Look at the No Jumper podcast with women literally appearing on the show to talk about their sexcapades, like Celina Powell's friend telling the story of how she slurped up seven Phoenix Suns players without batting an eyelash or Chief Keef's baby mamma recounts how Odell Beckham likes when girls shit on his chest. Just some weird shit that people can't seem to get enough of. They're not even good looking, either. What a time to be alive...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMh7WLTwlz0
Wow.... the fact that this is so mainstream now.... I mean.... when people say western civilization is collapsing and to "enjoy the decline"... I am starting to understand.
Found a website with OnlyThots statistics https://onlycreator.com/top/earnings
This one: https://onlycreator.com/user/misshannahnicoleee is supposedly making 1M a month
The porn industry is complicit in human trafficking.
ZH article on OF
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/internet-porn
They are selling fake companionship. It’s why the market primarily consists of men in their 20s and 50s.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/onlyfans-seeks-raise-funding-round-ov…
1B valuation
Very interesting
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