PE Debt Fund Interview Case Study
Wanted to gauge some responses on a private equity interview question I heard. The interviewer gave about 30~45 mins to work through a potential credit opportunity.
PE Case Study Example
Potential Credit Opportunity
Company is a paint distributor (highly cyclical) and had recently gone through bankruptcy 3 years prior.
- During this time, a PE firm bought them at 30MM
- Since then they have had 80 & 100 of revenue and 5 & 10 of Ebitda in the years after
- PE firm is happy with the growth and wants to take 15 million (12% int rate) out through second lien div recap
- Currently they have a 45MM line of credit that has an average usage of 35MM (5% int rate)
Additional Information After Asking Interviewer Questions
- Margins are low at 30%
- Company is #1 in market share at 45% with second company at 30%
- Company was purchased at 5x
- Depreciation was 1MM
- CAPEX was 1MM
- Company is projecting 5% top line growth and 4% ebitda growth over next two years
PE Case Study: Deal or No Deal?
Certified Private Equity Professional – Managing Director @Dingdong08" answers:
No deal because it's already overlevered. They bought a dog (local/regional cyclical distributor with low barriers to entry) at a bad price since it just came off of bankruptcy. There's not much room to grow because they're the market leader and with the second co that takes you up to 3/4 of the market. You don't want to get into a zero sum game and basically only compete on price to gain market share. I also doubt there are many hard assets because it's a distribution company.
- 5% project rev growth when they did 25% the prior year, and a 100% growth in ebitda from the prior year, seems like a pretty bad investment because it says to me that they don't have much more room to grow, especially in a cyclical industry so you're starting to max out your debt service ability
- Gross margins of 30% I'm assuming and maybe I'm reading it wrong, because this past year they had 100MM rev and 10MM ebitda, so ebitda margins of 10%. That's a high delta when it's distribution and not manufacturing or services. The 10% is actually quite good, but the gap is high to gross since there's no value added other than distribution channels on the company's part.
Additional questions to ask:
- Explore the 45MM line: is that a working capital revolver, which it seems like it is if they're in and out of it, and if it is, what are they using it for?
- If it's a working capital line, is there acquisition debt that they want you to ask about or did they pay 30MM of equity, which would be odd?
- EBITDA is useful but you need to know current "I" when you're going behind that
- Ask for a comp analysis because maybe paint distributors historically trade at 10x and you happened to buy at 5, but I doubt it
- Audited/reviewed statements with notes or a well put together CIM would give you most of this.
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No deal. 5x valuation and they want to put on potentially up to 60mn of debt on 10 EBITDA.Sounds like a shit deal. Weird to have a case study of something so obviously junk.
@dingdong08 To the below comment on 5x buy out of RXing and now trades at 10, I’ve seen it happen, I still hate the company but have seen it happen.
Basically no deal because it's already overlevered and they bought a dog (local/regional cyclical distributor with low barriers to entry if a national came in and decided to compete on price, although I have no idea if there are national paint distributors) at a bad price since it just came off of bankruptcy and there's not much room to grow because they're the market leader and with the second co that takes you up to 3/4 of the market-you don't want to get into a zero sum game and basically only compete on price to gain market share. I also doubt there are many hard assets because it's a distribution company.
But questions, in no particular order and kind of in a stream of consciousness because I had a few drinks already...:
-explore the 45MM line: is that a working capital revolver, which it seems like it is if they're in and out of it, and if it is, what are they using it for? I would guess that they distribute to mom & pop shops, painters, etc (I don't know the paint distribution industry at all so I'm making assumptions based on industries where I've done deals) and maybe an HD or Loews, but I would guess they purchase nationally directly from manufacturers and self distribute anyway. So what they're most likely doing is extending better payment terms to smaller customers (i.e. no credit receivables) while they pay their manufacturers (credit entities, or at least better than their payables) on better terms, so they're putting their AR/AP out of whack and their DSO is far too long, 90-120 days, for non credit receivables. You can do that the other way although it's not optimal so, for example, you could offer better terms to HD or Loews if they were your receivable and the mom & pops were your payable-less credit risk and most likely distributed risk.
-if it's a working capital line, is there acquisition debt that they want you to ask about or did they pay 30MM of equity, which would be odd? This is too flat of a capital stack for a PE leveraged acquistion. Sr, sub, mezz? Explore terms on that. I've never done a 30MM deal outside of a follow on acq, so I don't know if it gets much beyond sr debt at that level, but get the term, amortization and cash sweeps, and if there are any restrictions on cash flows beyond sr debt service: i.e. does the sr sweep 50%+ of free cash and therefore you can't service a second lien, or at least at terms that are palatable to an sub issuer. EBITDA is useful but you need to know current "I" when you're going behind that. Plus you need to know the equity invested: because I doubt they paid all cash, are they trying to pull out all of their equity (plus a return possibly) and leave no skin in the game?
-you don't want smoke blown up your bum when you're discussing projections, but 5% project rev growth when they did 25% the prior year, and a 100% growth in ebitda from the prior year, seems like a pretty bad investment because it says to me that they don't have much more room to grow, especially in a cyclical industry so you're starting to max out your debt service ability. Also, if they bought it at 5x (I'm assuming of ebitda and not an ev/ebit or 5 turns of debt) the acquisition year's ebitda was 6MM, so the first year they decreased earnings. Yes, they bought it 3 years ago out of bk and we were just coming off of the recession, especially in building products, materials and services, but I don't want to invest (EQ or D) at the plateau. You'd also want a comp analysis because maybe paint distributors historically trade at 10x and you happened to buy at 5, but I doubt it.
-gross margins of 30% I'm assuming and maybe I'm reading it wrong, because this past year they had 100MM rev and 10MM ebitda, so ebitda margins of 10%. That's a high delta when it's distribution and not manufacturing or services. The 10% is actually quite good, but the gap is high to gross since there's no value added other than distribution channels on the company's part.
-Audited/reviewed statements with notes or a well put together CIM would give you most of this.
I'm sure there are more questions to be asked but that would get me to the yes/no on a 10 minute initial look if I wanted to see more. I'm not a debt guy though and this is probably more of an acquisition analysis.
Nfw.
Assume 1st lien is fully drawn at 45, so 60mm through the 2nd or 6x today. You would already be underwater in a multiples basis.
I would assume this thing had negative Ebitda in the trough, and they already almost max out their revolver. This means they have no liquidity if we hit a cycle and they are basically guaranteed to file. I would cuff the default prob @ around 40-50% over the 8yr tenor.
If they file, it's worth about 30mm, so the 1st lien is either getting 30mm of cash or all the equity. 2nds will get a bagel.
If it wasn't such a small deal I would pitch 2x long the 1st and 1x short the 2nd, assuming both offered at par.
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