Tony Dwyer says Millennials are keeping the recession from hitting soon. This is further corroborated by the bullish trend in investing in stocks especially companies that the millennials associate with.
How much truth is there to this?
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based gen z will revive the economy
Based Gen Z is probably getting drafted and shipped off to the ME to die in another banker's war.
"Banker's" war ;)
based Gen Z is getting POUNDED in the ass
why lol
There is several factors to this and America plays a crucial role in this and how quick it hits.
Some major factors that might impact the economy: 1) Trump's reelection/ impeachment 2) Trade deals with countries like China & India 3) Changes in Monetary/ Fiscal policy 4) Stock market (which is influenced by the above factors) 5) Visa & Outsourcing restrictions 6) Ginormous investments into companies? 7) Layoff trend (Unemployment rate)- Given the new 'cost-cut' trend that many giants are adopting 8) Realestate fluctuations (Places like Bay Area are hyper inflated already with avg. rents over $3,400)
So its all a loop and to some extent is uncontrollable if there is a major change in any of those above.
As to Millennials holding up the market IDK.
The US is an 'OLD' country just like most developed countries, so the ~20% millennials upholding the whole economy seems a stretch. If it were countries like India is 45% Millennials, but Indian & Chinese economies work pretty much interdependently with the US.
So it is just a cycle that is not stoppable but can be controlled.
I don't know much about the political status in the US, but do you really think Trump as a person not his administration would be able to influence the world economy so much that a recession might hit?
So what you're saying is.....the next recession will be predicated upon macro economic and political drivers. Insightful.
This guys thoughts are worthy of a Nobel prize
I do hope Trump gets tough on China. hurts short-term but benefit in long-term
anytime someone says the R word, raise an eyebrow. ignore what they have to say if:
they say no implications for your life or money (recessions can be incredibly benign like the tech bubble or 1991, or they can be horrendous like the 70s and GFC)
they have no track record of accurately predicting recessions
often, this will cause you to doubt just about every pundit out there. almost no one has a good record of predicting both when a recession should hit and what it actually means. it's all bullshit
So if we have a more typical recession like we did in the early 2000s, what do you think the impact will be for financial services jobs (AM / HF)? Materially worse for job prospects, or perhaps only 10% worse or so?
well, I think that completely depends on the fund strategy, I think that certain parts of the asset management universe are going to be in a long term structural decline, like long only equity at shops where there's not anything unique or a tremendous embedded customer base (e.g. capgroup, wellington).
on the other hand, HNW investors and institutions are clamoring for more alternative investments so for as much crap as hedge funds get, I think the space as a whole will be fine. first off, I wouldn't go into the business of equity research or being a forecaster at one of these firms, it's incredibly hard (read: impossible) to do accurately. if I was going to gun for a spot in the space, I'd brush up on credit analysis and bond trading, maybe try to start on a bond desk, learn to code so I can set myself up to get into a firm like citadel, DE Shaw, etc., realizing that unless you have a top notch math degree you'll need a couple other stops before you can get to funds at that level.
this is why I say don't worry about the economy too much, you have no control over it. you do, however, have complete control over how you build out your career so that you can be insulated from the worst effects of recessions, so if you're asking for advice, I'd do that. acquire skills that will be desirable even in bad economic times, live below your means so it doesn't crush you when the economy tanks (e.g. Q4 last year, ever had your income cut by 20% in a quarter? not fun if you're living paycheck to paycheck, easily survivable if you're living below your means)
hope this helps
No. Go away.
Recessions tend to be an issue mainly when people deviate from normal best practices.
Stocks aren't the problem, debt is.
As soon as those triple B's slip below investment grade:
It would be pretty bad and many companies would go under, unable to secure more credit
Regs will change and BB or B will be investment grade
Something else that I cannot foresee, though I think it will be 1 then 2
No! I'm feeling happy
The best thing is to build your income out as to be as flexible and recession resistant as possible....and then whatever happens...happens.
nobody knows and economics is a liberal art adored by statists
2 straight quarters of negative economic growth? There's zero evidence that such a scenario is right over the horizon.
Only in China and Asia. And deeply in the middle-east and Mexico. Also Europe and S. America.
US and Canada industrial segments are entering recession level. GM strike and Boeing 737 shutdown are causing big ripple effects in those industries. Industrial steel, copper and paper demand are all down in NA and globally.
Unsustainable Bright Spots ? 1. Trump's $1T in annual deficit spending - at the height of the economy.. 2. US Consumer deficit spending. 3. Aggressive monetary stimulus at a 10 year peak.
I like how it's 'Trump's' deficit spending, You do realize it's mostly driven by congress? As a a matter of fact, when was the last budget passed by congress? I'll wait..
Don't fool yourself, POTUS always has the power to control spending. Just because Bush and Obama didn't doesn't mean that responsible (conservative) fiscal behavior is impossible.
Ehhhhh, this is mostly false in the practical sense.
The President can veto Congress' spending bills, but to achieve what end? Over 60% of federal spending is mandatory spending (e.g. on Social Security and Medicare). To balance the budget today, you'd have to cut back all discretionary spending to the bone to even pretend to be fiscally responsible. The reality is, Congress would never allow the President to veto a bill and then demand hundreds of billions of dollars in tax increases and/or spending cuts--and, as pointed out, even if that happened, the net result would still be a horrible hole in the budget and the President would be thrown out of office along with his party.
The last attempt ever made at fiscal responsibility in this country came in 2005 when Bush presented some reforms to entitlements. It tanked Bush's popularity and in the 2006 mid-terms Republicans were dramatically thrown out of office. So yes, technically, the President today has the final say on spending, but in the practical sense, he does not. The president can't reform entitlements and any attempt at shutting the gov't down over, I don't know, $500 billion of tax increases and spending cuts would be political disaster and would achieve very little as the hole in the budget would still be gargantuan.
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