Very Basic BOND question (can't get head around it)

Ok! sorry for the very basic question but after research and research I just cant get my head around it. Could be a slow learner :) but I am very curious and want to learn more. It is def bond 101. I just don't get how they work and how bond traders work

Questions:

1) Who determines the 10 year treasury rate. It changes daily. I thought that this was set by the FED, clearly not as it changes daily

2) So when the FED increases interest rates, I believe it is interbank interest rates? Because the banks get charged higher, do they start lending higher? is the relationship evident or is it an implicit relationship?

3) I read that the most impact to a corporate bond is the interest rate increase. What is the benchmark interest rate they look at? Bond prices move daily, interest rates don't move daily? So the bond price will go down, if people think company is doing worst? Then why don't you just buy the equity as opposed to the bond?

4) If you want to short a bond, what would be the main reasons? I mean, we all know FED will increase interest rates, so that should already be in price. Company performance? than again why not invest in equity (only because it is more risky?)

5) When someone decides to long a bond - what does he look at? I assume just looking at if the company will pay it back is not sufficient.

6) Is every bond 100, or 1000? or are they denominated in any number?

7) Italy currently has negative yields for one month. How is that the case? They are issuing bonds to be paid to borrow money? Why would they do that? Who would buy them?

8) Would you short or long a bond with negative yield? If so why?

Final and most important question!

9) So lets says someone gives me 100k and says invest it in a bond (able to take risk etc...). How would I go deciding which bond is good? in which country? I mean I don't expect ARgentina to collapse, so why not take to 40%? yes inflation will deteriorate my return, but what if you are living in argentina and only spend peso? A bond of Amazon vs. Netflix? What would I consider?

Please write it in the most simplistic form! Extremely keen but am having difficulties to understand.

 

No, the Fed only sets the 1 day overnight interest rate (called the "Fed Funds" rate). They set a target (currently 1.75-2.0%) and banks use this rate to determine where to clear overnight loans between themselves. US treasuries trade in a market just like stocks...so the market sets all interest rates beyond the 1 day rate. Things to consider are inflation expectations, future changes to overnight rate by the central bank, time to maturity and credit risk. The longer an entity has to repay a bond, the more time potential there is for something unforseeen to happen that might cause the entity to not be able to repay its bonds (loss of revenue, bankruptcy, etc...). For this reason, the yield curve for corporate bonds (and most governments) is usually positively sloped (longer time to maturity = more risk of a credit event). Investors ask the question "what is the probability that the entity will default before maturity?". The likelihood of a credit event is greater for a 30yr bond than for a 1yr bond...more time for the unforeseen to occur. Argentina defaulted on their govt bonds a few years ago and their prior bond buyers got cents on the dollar. Would you still like to buy their 10yr bond? Since there is a high likelihood that Argentina will default again, what dollar price would you be willing to pay for that risk?

Bonds are denominated in 1000 of face, but price is quoted as a %...so 100 = 100% of 1000 and 99 = 99% of 1000 = 990

just google it...you're welcome
 
Most Helpful

First you need to understand how interest rates work. In the US, all interest rates are based off the risk free rate...and then extrapolated from there, adding credit risk and inflation risk. The risk free rate in the US is the matched maturity yield from the US treasury curve. So, if you want the 1yr risk free rate...you look at the US treasury note with 1 year remaining to maturity...and that 1yr yield is the risk free 1yr rate. Same thing for the 5yr, 10yr, 20yr, 30yr.

I mentioned above that the market sets the rate for all these points on the curve by trading in the secondary market. How do they determine what those rates should be? Its a combination f the expected path of the fed funds rate, as well as expectations of future economic growth, and future inflation. Expectations of future economic growth and inflation change every day...they change every second...and that is why he market is constantly in motion (by very small amounts). Nobody knows what the future will be....so the market makes probability based guesses. What is the probability that inflation will be 2% for the next year? What is the probability that the stock market will crash and we'll have a recession in the next 2-3 years? These are questions that the market is constantly trying to figure out, and they make bets on those future outcomes. This process is constantly in motion, and nobody agrees on all the possible sets of future predictions. The Central bank puts out their own predictions (in vague terms), and they also are constantly changing (by small amounts)...so nobody really knows what the future will be...and everybody is constantly changing their mind.

Now, with all that as background, to your questions.

1) the market sets the 10yr rate by trading the 10yr note, and that rate is constantly in motion

2) The Fed changes the overnight interest rate for a number of reasons...to manage the amount of currency supply, and to raise or lower inflation, to keep inflation hitting its target of generally 2% (tho, that can change). In the US, the central bank sets a RRR (required reserve ratio that banks must keep in deposits.....if the RRR is 10%, then banks can lend 90% of the deposits they take in...if the banks lend more than the RRR...they must borrow cash from another bank overnight that has excess reserves that day...and the rate used for that overnight loan is the fed funds rate). If a bank has excess reserves, they can either lend it to another bank that needs it overnight for 1 day...or they can park the money at the Fed and earn IOER (interest on excess reserves) which is usually the same rate as the Fed Funds rate (+/- a few basis points)

Banks make loans for a variety of terms (term = length of time). The rate that the bank sets for those loans is determined by the credit difference between the risk free rate (the matched maturity US treasury bond yield) and the credit risk associated by loaning the money to a person like you, or a business. You as an individual have a higher risk of default than the US govt, so the bank will charge you a higher interest rate in order to lend you money. The higher the credit risk, the higher the rate they will charge. This goes for mortgages, personal loans, business loans, etc. You might say "but my mortgage is back by the value of my house...so there is little to no risk" but house values change..and they can change by a lot...so there is indeed risk to the bank....plus risk that you get fied from your job and stop paying your mortgage...because it takes months to years for a bank to foreclose on your house...and in that time, they won't be getting loan payments if you default...so the banks take all those risks into consideration when they set the interest rate they will charge for each loan they make.

3) Corporate bonds have a number of risks. Some companies are more risky than others. Google is less risky than a biotech company that is researching cancer drugs...because if the biotech doesn't find a cure, they won't make any money and won't be able to pay back their debt...whereas google has a steady stream of cash coming in....so who would you rather lend money to? Who would you charge a higher interest rate to for a 10yr loan? How much higher? This is credit risk. Then you have inflation risk. If inflation picks up, and US govt yields go up to match that inflation (or even just future inflation expectations)...then corporate bond yields will tend to move in about the same direction and quantity.

The benchmark for most securities is 1st the govt yield curve...but sometimes you use another yield curve, like LIBOR (the rate that banks would lend to each other for a set of terms) and then set a spread from those rates.

A bond price is the price you pay to buy or sell a bond. The yield of that bond is calculated from the price. So, as the price moves, there is a formula that calculates the associated yield. They are synonymous.

Regarding equity vs bonds. Equity is ownership of a company, and the price of the equity is based on your expectation of uture cash flows. You have lots of choice regarding which company stock to buy...so you would naturally choose to buy the stock that you think will earn you the most money. But you don't know for sure which stock that is, because the world is constantly in motion, and past performance does not predict future results. Generally, owning the equity is more risky than owning the debt of a company...because with equity, you are last in the capital structure. Generally bond holders get paid first, before equity holders...and for this reason, generally, bond yields are lower than equity yields...because the bonds have less risk in the event of a liquidation. So, you always have to do a risk vs reward calculation..equity vs bond...and that dynamic is constantly in motion...constantly changing.

4) You would short a bond if you thought the price was going to go down. Prices go up and down for a variety of reasons, and they are always changing. You don't have a crystal ball...you don't know the future...nobody does...but you still try to make predictions...and you do lots of research to help in that process.

5) you look at everything. expectations for future growth...future inflation...relative credit risk...the list goes on.

6) bonds are denominated in units of 1000.

7) the ECB (european central bank) sets overnight interest rates for europe...currently -40 basis points (they are trying to influence people to take money out of the bank and spend it, trying to make banks make more loans..take more credit risk...or they must pay a penalty..that negative rate).

Govt bonds are based off this reference rate, and then you add a credit spread. What do you think the probability is that Italy will default on their 2yr govt debt? What about 10yr? What about future inflation in Italy? What are the odds Italy will leave the Euro and go back to the lira and create more inflation. I can assure you the risk is NOT zero...but its also not 100%....somewhere in the middle is the answer...but nobody knows for certain.

8) You short a bond if you think the price will go down before you plan on covering that short and buying it back.

9) This is not a simple question...investment professionals spend their whole lives trying to figure out a best answer, and they constantly change their mind. Its always a best guess. You research all the things from above...and then you make an educated guess. And then you constantly change your mind...and this is trading.

just google it...you're welcome
 

Very Very Very Helpful! Many thanks for taking the time to give such an elaborate description - starting to understand it :D

Quick follow-ups

1) Regarding the yield curve, if the 1 year bond increase because of short term credit risk expectations and the yield curve becomes flat, shouldnt the 2 year also increase proportionately? I mean, if the 1 year is in trouble, than 2 years should also have similar difficult, so I should have expected yield curve to be always upward sloping. Clearly as the yield curve gets flat and inverted that is not the case. Would be great i you provide more background.

5) Regarding question 5, yes you loook at future growth, credit risk etc... but if you see low future growth and a high credit risk, instead of shorting the bond, why not short the equity? Any reason?

 

the bond market is forward looking...right now the market is pricing a non-zero probability that the fed raising rates will cause a stock market crash in the near future. So, that exerts a flattening pressure on the curve. If the market is correct in this guess...then at some point in the future...3 years? 5 years? who knows....but eventually, the stock market and economy will crash and the Fed will have to lower rates again....that's why the curve is getting flatter..

just google it...you're welcome
 

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