I'm from the US but now in HK. Investment bank reputations on this side of the world are kind of throwing me off - would be nice to have a ballpark overview of banks here.
For example, it was a shock that Barclays doesn't even feature in the league tables anymore (no doubt due to all the cuts and what-not), whereas it's still a really good BB in the US.
For those of you over here or in the know, how do you guys see the rest of the bulge brackets? What are the strongest banks? Talking about mostly M&A, but IBD in general too.
What about Boutiques?
Would appreciate some input, thanks!
General advice - GTFO. I'm a bear on China and GTFO 2 years ago.
At least, watch this:
Full slide deck available here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QF4MBBMA0kUHk4WWllNnVJOFk/view?pli=1
Woah woah there - slow down. I'll check out those resources in a bit, but could you explain briefly in your own words?
Great post SSits. Could you re-send the link to the slide deck? Its no longer working.
Unfortunately that's the only linked I've got for the deck. Try googling with these:
Title: 2015 Risks The deflationary bust and beyond Author: Anne Stevenson-Yang Date: 20 Jan 2015 File name: 2015_02_20_CSIS_V2.pdf
In my own words - the days of making money out of China growth are over. The best days ended around late 2010. And I really enjoyed those days.
Momentum has kept things going for the last 4-5 years. But now the grinding slowdown is too apparent for even the Chinese government to paper over.
Well, shit. That sounds bleak.
I'd like to think that China's economic future is anything but conclusive. Anyway, I still have to stay here for a couple years before I even have a chance to GTFO, so I'll have to stick it out regardless.
That said, care to chime in on my question? What was the landscape like when you were here? Still familiar with how things are now?
Some of the smaller shops (eg Nomura) have scaled back their IBDs in HK, while GS cut IBD staff in Singapore in March. But generally the IBDs are keeping the dream alive for now, at least at the headline level.
That said, deal flow has shown signs of falling eg see http://www.factset.com/mergerstat_em/asia/Flashwire_Asia_Quarterly.pdf
I'm a huge China bear and generally only look back to Asia for news that validates my negative Nigel perspective. So don't take me too seriously.
But it is a pretty grim story.
Grim!
Thanks for sharing and its definitely good to know. Gave SB for it. Do you mind sharing on the signs of falling deal flow because the fact set seems to suggest otherwise. Thanks.
In terms of IBD landscape - generally, there is money to be made, but increasingly less so for non-Chinese bankers.
And, if you're Chinese, the money flows when you and your family are well-connected.
If you're a second generation ABC who speaks kitchen putonghua fluently and learned all your characters at Saturday morning Chinese school, you'll probably have a great career as an analyst/associate, then stall at VP level unless you find a niche and are very, very good with relationships. Also, you need to survive the nasty, zero-sum game of office politics with Chinese characteristics aka princelings looking for every opportunity to stab others in the back, which can seem more than a little irrational if you've grown up in the West.
Haha - third paragraph describes me almost perfectly!! Looks like I'll try to find a way out after a few years to avoid that office politics.
Thanks a lot for your insight - I would SB if I had any.
SSits - not wanting to thread steal but think it does fit the topic...
People always mention you for China questions - what is your history with China (RM there as well, or?) and then did you leave because you were the "second generation ABC who... stalls at VP" due to everything you mentioned?
Just curious because you comment often!
BUMP - any more takers?
@Forrest - I did 9 years in IBD in Hong Kong, initially in ECM deals, then mostly in buyside merchant banking/private equity. In that time I drunk baijiu, went to karaoke sessions, had 3 hour car drives to remote factories and sat across from Chinese company owners who were lying through their teeth but you couldn't call them out because that would cause them to loose face, get upset etc.
(And I did appreciate that truth has a different value and place in Chinese business culture today than it does in the West, the Chinese context is very different to the West, a lot of these guys had their formative years during the Cultural Revolution and the pre-Deng liberalisation etc etc)
I moved into RM when I moved out of Asia. After 9 years in front office at Hong Kong's 15% tax rate, I don't have to chase the dollar that hard any more.
I'm almost entirely European mongrel. However, I married into a Han family, I speak Mandarin and Cantonese (although not particularly well) and plunged my brain more deeply into Chinese culture than the average ex-pat I came across in Hong Kong.
@Woozy - if you're a China bear like me, you don't get past the second point where 1Q15 volume is down 31% on 4Q14 for China before you read no further and start citing it as proof for your views. Let not facts get in the way of conviction.
Hi SSits,
Thanks for the reply. You are definitely right about the volume falling off compared to Q4 14. However, based on the same graph, Q4 has the highest volume compared to other quarters for the past 3 years. But then again if you were to compared quarter on quarter for Q1 15 vs Q1 14, I could definitely see the possibility of an overall decline of the M&A deal volume for China this year.
M&A activity across the APAC however, is at an all-time quarterly high AFAIK. Q1 2015 M&A in APAC has something like an 80% increase over Q1 2014. Best quarter in history.
http://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/news/news20150409-asia-pacific-ma-… http://fortune.com/2015/03/31/ma-mania-deal-activity-hits-8-year-high/
Not sure about the other areas of the bank, but for M&A at least, I see a future here. HK BB offices don't just cover China - something to keep in mind.
ANYWAY - can anyone take a shot at the question? Anyone? Haha
Based on dealogic for 2014 and 2013, it seems like its MS,GS,Citi,CS in no particular order.
HSBC is also traditionally strong in HK.
It seems like HSBC's IBD is doing better than Barclays in Hong Kong. I work at a Chinese investment banking company and part of the IBD guys work here for a better life in lieu of business.
Barcap is destroyed here unfortunately. Do you know if they are rebuilding?
How are UBS and BAML looked upon in the pecking order?
That's true man! I don't have friends in Barcap but I guess just like others, these expats are counting on the wealth management business. Are they rebuilding? Rebuilding IBD reputation?
UBS n BofA ML are doing good in Hong Kong. I won't say more about it since I'm new to the industry. But I know both UBS's IBD & wealth management are great in the region.
More bearish views: http://uk.businessinsider.com/people-dont-believe-chinas-growth-figures…
What's your view on Southeast Asia SSits?
And to digress a little, any tips on getting recognized as a hard working junior?
To speak blandly, SEA is an interesting and diverse market. Security in the South China Sea is that major concern that would keep me out of the region in the longer run. Not in a personal security sense, but because it will be horrible once this starts hitting valuations.
Security risks aside, I much more bullish about SE Asia (or at least some parts of it) than China.
WSO has plenty of threads on how to work effectively and get recognition as a junior, so I won't rehash those views here.
Bump? Been a while. Any thoughts?
bump!
Any Asia-specific tips for 2017 Asia (mainly SG since my mandarin is poor) IBD SA recruiting? Will be returning for summer, studying in UK now.
bump
bump
Will be starting as a FT analyst in Asia (Sg). Happy to answer any specific questions related to recruiting and the general IB environment here.
best investment banks in Asia (Originally Posted: 03/23/2007)
I know that GS, ML, UBS are the top players. What about Lehman Brothers in Asia? Please share some insights as I'll be interning there this summer.
Thank you!
Also on a second thought, if for whatever reason i decide after the summer that Asia (HK) is not the place for me, how good would the leverage be for full time US recruiting next year? I'd appreciate your comment!
know a guy who did Lehman HK --> GS TMT NY
GS has a NY TMT office?
NJA banking thing
Tier 1: GS/MS/UBS Tier 2: CS/ML/JPM Tier 3: Citi/DB Tier 4: Leh/Macquarie/BNP/Cazenove/GS Beijing
Especially with Leh down at bottom. They are really falling behind.
the bulk of work in asia (hk esp) is in ECM - icbc last year and citic this yr. not so much m&a as i understand it.. ubs, gs and ms are the top players.
where do the brand-name boutiques stand in Asia?
Can anyone find a reference to ANY deal Lehman has done in Asia?
Lehman was involved in ICBC
HSBC is pretty big as well
Lehman withdrew for a bit, but is gonna catch up for sure. The things it that, I heard they work you like craaazzy; the whole Asian culture thing.
Interesting article in Financeasia about DB today.
Who is tops in Asia/Hong Kong? (Originally Posted: 05/06/2009)
Are the top players in HK and the rest of Asia still UBS and Goldman? Or is it only GS now with the stuff going on with UBS?
http://thomsonreuters.com/business_units/financial/league_tables/
It used to be UBS definitively...
Probably Goldman now is top. MS/CS also have JV's with mainland china firms that allows them to handle mainland IPO's. Citi is very weak in Asia.
Goldman.
Disney
True, Disney is actually one of the select few foreign organizations allowed to operate English Schools for kids in China. In a decade, entire Chinese towns will be owned by Disney.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124017964526732863.html
GS MS CICC
Any thoughts on Nomura? They have a very strong record for M&A in Asia, whether or not you include Japan figures.
They had #1 share for M&A in 2008 in terms of deal value for Asia.
For Q12009 they were ranked #2 for M&A deals announced (Asia ex-Japan).
Yea absolutely Nomura is excellent in Asia. But therein lies the rub-- "In Asia".
No global presence, not a Bulge-Bracket. Less prestigious.
Then again, ITE, prestige means essentially nothing.
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