Will Gold prices hit a bottom in 2018?

puckwolfgang's picture
Rank: Monkey | banana points 48

Price have been steady around 1200-1300 for quite some time now and may not be as a bad of an idea to have as a longer term (1-3+) investment after things settle down post-tax bill? I'd be very curious to learn more about NUGT & JNUG since they are 3x leveraged and potentially good (albeit massively risky) trades when gold finally recovers?

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Comments (33)

Dec 15, 2017

Cryptocurrency > gold

Dec 15, 2017

Seriously why would you want to own gold?

Dec 15, 2017

Why do people buy gold? Is this even a serious question? I don't think the time is ripe (yet) to buy but was wondering what everyone else thought.

Dec 15, 2017

I am being serious. What are your reasons for wanting to own gold? Do you purchase anything with gold? Does gold have many real world uses that make it especially valuable? It always seemed strange to me that people bought gold aside from pure speculation that someone else will eventually pay more for that gold.

Dec 15, 2017

A gold bug dies everyday. No one under 40 or probably even older remembers gold being a monetary instrument.

So now its all about jewelry.

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Dec 18, 2017

I think we're seeing, now with the introduction of cypto's, the demonetization of gold. Gold hasn't been used as base money for quite some time, but it maintained its exchange value via central bank holding and the potential for it to reemerge with the anticipated collapse of fiat money. Now that we have crypto's, I no longer see gold operating in that capacity.

I wouldn't hold it under any circumstance.

Dec 18, 2017

tungsten yes, gold no.

Dec 18, 2017

All the big dogs like Paulson are only riding the bubble until it bursts. I would stay away from gold.

Dec 18, 2017

Do you believe that central banks will continue monetizing sovereign debt. If yes buy gold if no don't.

Gold isn't trading like a commodity. It is trading like "safer money"

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Dec 18, 2017

I'm a newb as well, so pro's please feel free to correct/add to my comment as necessary. From what I understand, the price of gold to some extent indicates people's comfort level with equity investments and the economy as a whole.

When people feel uncomfortable with stocks (especially during turbulent economic times), they tend to gravitate towards gold, a hard asset, which has traditionally been viewed as a bit more stable. With more people moving towards gold during tough economic times, you can, in general, expect to see the price of gold go up when the economy is not doing so well, and go back down when the economy is booming.

Dec 18, 2017

yes you are a newb...this kid is trying to get you to do his homework.

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit!

Dec 18, 2017

a lot of panicky people bought gold over the last few years, driving he price up. Those same people started panicking when the value started to wane. Gold is more or less a measure of fear in the financial markets - the higher the fear, the higher the price. Not saying it's a bad investment hedge, but keep it to about 10% of your portfolio.

Dec 18, 2017

I never understand how people are surprised by gold price volatility. Gold pays no dividends and has limited industrial uses. Basically it is inherently worthless and derives the vast majority of its worth from demand by investors who view it as an inflation hedge. It's a very weird asset that is very susceptible to the emotions of the market, because you can't model what it should be worth in any theoretically sound way. That is why it's such a volatile investment.

Dec 18, 2017

Heard from a few sources that in order for Cyrpus to get its bailout, they'll need to sell all of their gold holdings... Thus the downward pressure on price. Just speculation though

Dec 18, 2017

street was short gamma

Dec 18, 2017

Prices will likely begin to stabilize around the all-in producer break-even cost of production. All the rest is just noise or posturing for attention IMNSHO.

Dec 18, 2017
ArcherVice:

Prices will likely begin to stabilize around the all-in producer break-even cost of production. All the rest is just noise or posturing for attention IMNSHO.

right

speed boost blaze

Dec 18, 2017

That is an interesting view point...I had come across this article stating that one third of gold production is probably losing money while pointing to the fact that the industry is need of restructuring and 'survival of the fittest'. Here is the link to the article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-14/gold-indu...

Dec 18, 2017

They definitely need to change, especially if interest rates begin to rise. Tough business to be in, miners themselves tend to be shitty investments.

Dec 18, 2017

I am wondering what will happen to gold prices as India's guaranteed demand (Google how that country think about gold and the social value of it) moderates. I think as the country westernizes/modernizes that demand will enter a secular decline.

Whether that's enough to meaningfully affect gold prices (and what the timeline might be) is a different question.

Dec 18, 2017
tangent style:

I am wondering what will happen to gold prices as India's guaranteed demand (Google how that country think about gold and the social value of it) moderates.

That will likely not happen anytime soon.

Dec 18, 2017

Agreed. Last time I visited, the first billboard I saw was selling insurance on the price of gold. It's a fundamentally different mindset over there.

Dec 18, 2017

It's because you touch yourself at night ;)

    • 1
Dec 18, 2017

Well if that's true it sounds like I have a very pleasurable road to riches.

Cause who wants to be in the 99%?

Dec 18, 2017

Easy on the monkey shits. I think people are still on the sidelines a bit. The seemingly one good thing is that our job numbers and payroll data are improving, which has a very positive impact on all things consumer related. The dollar is still strong relative to other currencies, and global economic fears continue. The rise of the dollar has hurt our exports, manufacturing is still contracting (but improved last month), and oil prices are still low - even if they bumped up a few dollars/bbl. There will still be some bankruptcies this year to come in the o&g market, and I think banks will take a hit. We are seeing banks increase their loan loss reserves by the billions (even though it's not much when you consider the overall balance sheet of some of these banks). All in all, there are still some concerns and headwinds. Just because oil rose to $35 a barrel from $29 doesn't mean we are out in the clear.

Dec 18, 2017

Consensus on oil is a "lower for longer" environment

Dec 18, 2017
Dec 18, 2017