The Next Big Thing
Every decade or so, one "hot" sector captures the imagination of MBAs looking to be the Masters of the Universe - that big payday or that job that would be the envy of their classmates and peers. It's this glory seeking, trophy hunting and status-seeking mentality that drives the herd mentality within the MBA jet-set.
In the 60s, it was advertising. In the 70s, it was conglomerates. In the 80s, it was bond trading. In the 90s, it was dot-coms and venture capital. And in this decade, it's private equity/hedge funds.
It wasn't long ago when people were arguing that dot-coms were going to be hot for a long time. Even b-schools introduced ecommerce majors, as if business fundamentals were somehow different in a virtual world (well, they are when you are in a stock market bubble). Before that, quite a few assumed that bond trading would continue to be the darling of MBAs, and Silicon Valley was scoffed at as just a bunch of geeks in a garage. If history is a decent guide, you can probably fill in the blanks. Things change, but human nature never changes.
While some of the interest certainly is genuine, most of it is, like any market bubble, driven by greed and fear. Like any asset market, greed makes you buy when you should be selling, and fear makes you sell when you should be buying. The smart money got in before the sector got hot.
You probably know that the private equity market is overheated right now. Same with hedge funds. Too much cheap money chasing too few deals. Bad times never last forever, but good times never do either.
If you're looking for a career in the "hot" sector, by all means go for it. But if you're looking for glory, you're too late to the game. By the time you have a shot at glory, the party's over. All that talk of billion dollar bonuses at hedge funds and private equity shops are about 10 - 30 years removed from where most MBAs (and aspiring MBAs alike) are at today. Working as an underling for a big swinging dck isn't the same as *being the big swinging d*ck. The former is like being a chambermaid for royalty - just because you help make someone's bed, doesn't make you part of the family, nor does it mean you have anywhere near the same benefits and perks either.
Like celebrities in People Magazine (and MBA herd mentality is like People Magazine), all hot sectors "jump the shark" before it's replaced by something new.
And private equity has jumped the shark. What used to be the playground for burnt-out investment bankers in the past has now become the dreams of IT engineers - just as the market has peaked. It's like schoolteachers talking about the latest penny stock.
Like advertising, conglomerates, bond trading and dot-coms -- private equity won't disappear. But it sure won't garner the attention or glory in the future that it does now. And it may even institutionalize even further, making the "big swinging d*ck" in private equity as obsolete as it is in investment banking. The nature of the job is gatekeeping. You are a gatekeeper of money. The folks who made it big didn't make it big because they were good gatekeepers. They made it big because they got in early before others caught wind.
Again, if you're banking on glory, status or even just a huge financial windfall, don't count on it if you're this late in the game. By the time you make partner, People Magazine would've moved onto something else much sexier, trendier and more lucrative - you'll be yesterday's news by the time you've made it. All the press, accolades, and money that showered the partners today will be on some other industry by the time you've climbed the ladder.
The folks who generate the enormous windfall have one thing in common -- they get in early. Whether it's real estate, stocks, art collections, or even careers - they managed to stay ahead of the uninformed masses.
It's not about being smart, educated, pedigreed, or rich - it's about being early. Most of the personal wealth amassed by Google staff isn't concentrated in the Stanford MBA alums - most of it goes to those who were there in Google's early stages - from the CEO all the way down to the customer service rep. In most cases, the early birds have the largest piece of the pie in any venture.
Buy low, sell high. MBAs who are part of the herd mentality unfortunately tend to buy high and sell low.
So what is The Next Big Thing? It could be healthcare. International porn. Or it could be all about Eastern Europe, China and India (note to international students, and particularly the Indians who seem to be the most adverse to repatriating compared to other internationals -- if you believed this, is there any reason why you need to be an H1B indentured servant post-MBA, rather than being the early bird entrepreneur back home -- as an aside, the few folks who are going back now will likely reap greater rewards long-term than any H1B employee ever will who believes "someday I'll go back"; mark my word on this).
Personally, I have no idea what the Next Big Thing is nor do I really care. And you probably don't. That's the point. You're chasing your own tail if you do. It's not about trying to time the market or to play market contrarian with your career. It's simply about being brutally honest with yourself about what it is you enjoy doing, and sticking to it. Because everything will have it's day in the sun if you enjoy the job enough to stick through the tough times. Who knows, maybe even insurance or accounting may be The Next Big Thing... stranger things have happened. And if you're too risk averse that you have to stick with what appears to be safe, then don't expect much - greater returns come with greater risk.
What do you guys think of this essay?
Gives me something to think about -- is this for a class?
You'd probably get a lot more reads if you posted this in the IB forum.
i didn't write it. it's on the blog of a guy who went to wharton and now has an admissions consulting business.
very true
Great essay, decent writing too. What blog is this from and what's the website to his admissions consulting business?
who is the guy?
great article...stops and makes you think!
follow the money
The essay is from http://mbaapply.blogspot.com/ and the guy's admissions consulting website is http://mbaapply.com/ (appears broken in Firefox).
Personally, I think the hedge fund/private equity/banking market has most definitely peaked. When you have the leaders in the field (Blackstone, KKR, Och-Ziff) all going public or trying to go public, you have to wonder why they would do it now instead of waiting if they really thought there was significantly more upside in the future.
I have no idea what the next big thing will be. Based on the compensation structure in finance vs. other professions, though, it seems likely that it will be something in financial services - it's hard to make a lot of money when you don't deal with a lot of money.
I'm not sure how much longer the China bubble will last. That is a possibility for the next decade, but given the 500% return the Shanghai index saw in 2007 and the fact that most companies' earnings are coming from their own stock prices going up, the trend seems unsustainable. Or at least likely to burst in the near future.
Some decent points made in this essay. Private equity will arguably never be as hot as it was 6 months ago. Don't forget that the mid to late 1980's were an excellent time for private equity when high-yield, mostly Milkin/Drexel underwritten was bountiful, as were the mid 1990's, so I guess if you follow that progression, private equity is due for another cooling down period while the markets re-adjust (and who knows, may come back even hotter in 5 years). But even if PE never comes back to the extent that it was a year or two ago, I think it will still be a very sought after career path. I'd like to think that while many young finance professionals pursue private equity because of its recent fad factor, most people truly enjoy what they do and have a deep interest in finance from a deal execution and operational standpoint. Private equity is probably the best job I could have envisioned for myself because while I'm very interested in the operations of a company, at heart I'm partial to doing deals - I have no interest in becoming a Fortune 500 CEO or CFO like some of my other banking counterparts.
What I think may change in the future for PE is probably the fee structure. As more firms slowly give up more to their LP's because of less leverage from market outperformance driven by cheap debt with favorable terms, the fee structure will most likely change. Hopefully for the sake of us in PE, it doesn't devolve into that of a pledge fund, but it’s not that hard to fathom.
is there any sector, in a logical standpoint, you guys think will be hot in the next decade apart from pe?
IMHO I see 2 areas:
Catering to sovereign wealth? Although that depends in large part upon how well individual countries can sit with the idea of having large companies and key infrastructure owned by these funds (think Dubai ports uproar in the US) and any reactionary protectionism that results.
Also corporate restructuring and breaking up highly leveraged companies into smaller ones. Probably not all that big though atleast compared to sovereigns.
sure, financing conditions will (and should) never be easier for lbos than they were in 06-07, and PE and MF strategies are sensitive to cyclicality. But you have to be joking if you buy the "private equity / hedge funds are sooooo over" argument. The underlying businesses aren't new, HF, and to some degree PE, boil down to a fee schedule and a marketing strategy. Sure, some other industry may become this week's hot synonym for "greedy capitalist" in the eyes of the mainstream media (and, if you're looking to get into PE or HF, wouldn't you prefer that?), but smart people with real experience and good ideas will continue to create a lot of wealth in these areas. Private investors were putting capital into deals before Kohlberg starting doing bootstrap acquisitions at the Bear, and the core strategies of most hedge funds (whether its distressed investing, risk arb, etc.) have been around a long time.
Also -- alternative investment firms going public being a jump shark moment? Sure, these are people whose core business involves trying to time the market correctly, so, like any in their right mind, they are looking to raise equity when the conditions are favorable. But, for the large PE shops like Bstone, KKR, Carlyle, etc., there's also a significant generational issue. The firms have built brands, and Schwarzman, Kravis, Rubenstein, etc. are (by wall street standards at least) old, have made more money than they need, and at this point are as interested in succession and permanence as anything else. Is it a coincidence that the large cap buyout firm with the oldest co-founder (Pete Peterson) was the first one to go public? Maybe, but providing liquidity for companies whose entrepreneurs were approaching retirement has long been a staple of smaller and MM PE deals - what is so sinister about the grandfathers of PE looking to create some permanent capital for their businesses before they go the way of all things and/or Tommy Lee?
Low interest rates were not the only thing propelling the growth of the "alternative investment" space. Another major force has been shifting attitudes among a lot of institutions and high net worth investors that hedge funds and PE funds are a ligitimate asset class with lower correllation to public equity markets and should be a significant part of every large investor's diversified portfolio. This attitude will likely endure through higher interest rates and bad credit markets because it's true.
One threat to the large buyout funds that I was wondering about was the possible future lack of targets. Mega funds love big bloated sleepy businesses with diverse internal operating divisions and mediocre management. Are targets like this still as abundant as they used to be? Modern business theory always teaches focusing on "core competencies" and outsourcing or divesting all other activities. If companies are increasingly doing this on their own, how will large PE firms do it for them?
Do you guy's think the PE/HF growth will spill over in emerging markets? I know for a fact that in India there has been increased FDI's and many PE/IB/VC offices are opening up. So maybe this trend of growth in PE and HF's will continue to expand in the emerging markets during the next decade, maybe it'll be something like a phase II of the PE industry's growth. Nowadays I always hear that the globalization of a firm is an important part of their profits and growth. So how does this globalization factor in PE/IB/VC/HF's?
What's the NEXT BIG THING? (Originally Posted: 06/17/2007)
Private equity is potentially at its peak, hedge funds are common now, VC is 90s; any idea what the next hot field will be in finance? Something new?
DISTRESSED DEBT
second that
would you mind explaining your thoughts as to why distressed debt?
Sliced Cabbage.
.
anything asian. asian equities, (japan, asia ex japan) those sales guys make a lot of money. higher margins, growing markets, etc. not much here on the trading side, asian equity traders at the big banks only handle the ADR's. you gotta go abroad if you want really trade them.
asian derivitives.. expect to see a tidal wave of instruments coming forward, and an even bigger wave of institutions investing in them. (converts are becoming a huge huge market right now)
and yes, distressed U.S. Debt and equity, higher interest rates wont make for the prettiest picture domestically. (and no there wont be any cuts, the fed may be dumb, but they won't let the dollar collapse any more than it already has)
also, this is probably the 50th time someone has asked this question since i started posting here a few months ago, its getting annoying
the head trader at an MM where I interviewed at told me that he thinks carbon emissions is the next big thing, i guess he could be right
so, let's assume the next big thing is indeed distressed debt...how would you take advantage of this? i assume the lev fin/restructuring/sponsors groups are we you'd want to be?
BioFuels.
is to get onto a distressed debt trading desk? Or work with junk bonds?
you wont find anything in banking that will deal exclusively with distressed debt on a daily basis,well maybe you could but who knows.
also, you could join a vulture fund, like oaktree or something. that would be fun
on the banking side, i assume restructuring group would handle debt workouts. what about lev fin or sponsors? how are most banks organized in these areas - i.e. separate restructuring groups and another group called either lev fin or sponsors? thanks in advance for your help.
what is a vulture fund?
Biofuels - that is interesting - but where is that available on a desk?
google it
Goldmans ESSG or AmSSG is a very interesting option to aim for. The guys may be quite busy over the next couple of years if those cov-lite deals start to go pear shaped..
the answer is in the question. the next big think will be for the guys who made loads of cash in pe/hedge funds etc to pass it on to the next generation to spend.
"Living the dream 24/7 on http://theallnighter.blogspot.com"
The reason why I suggested the next big thing to be distressed debt, is that in the event of a market meltdown and/or a liquidity crisis.. the vultures as they(distressed debt investors) are known will come out in full force looking 4 the right carcass, you know the stuff with sum meat on it.
But if the market holds up, I believe the next big thing will be the last big thing.
Does GS AmSSG/ESSG recruit undergrads?
its too funny. whenever someone mentions the next big thing, these kids cream their pants over ways to be a "part of it". get a life and just focus on getting a summer analyst position first.
Agree. The next big thing for most of you is puberty.
Hey thanks Tekno; I didn't ask for you to opine on what goes on in my pants. I already work as a summer analyst doing deals quite similar to this GS group. It's a simple yes/no question. I don't need your bromidic condescension.
Biofuels of all sorts (ethanol, biodiesel, etc.) still make no sense from an economic standpoint.
1) Producers generally have no power in securing either feedstock or offtake contracts, and have never heard of hedging.
2) The energy input / output ratio still weighs in favor of fossil fuels. It takes a lot of oil and gas to produce the eco-"friendly" variety. 3) $4 corn (in the case of ethanol) is not good for anyone, save corn farmers. Has anyone else noticed the rise in the prices of chicken (chicken feed), Coca-Cola (high fructose corn syrup), or Mexican food (corn tortillas)?
If the U.S. government were serious about curbing fossil fuel consumption, it would at the very least eliminate tariffs on sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil, which is produced far more cost-effectively than what we're doing here. But since there is a farming lobby to which to pander, that simply will not happen.
I read something today that said the only way for U.S. producers to hit ethanol production quotas by 2015 as set forth by the Bush administration, a "technological breakthrough" would be necessary. How can you bank on a "breakthrough" of any kind?
The key here is finding a politically, and economically, palatable balance between Energy Independence and Going Green.
Back to the original point: It's usually a good idea to dive into something that's been totally out of favor of late. Dot-com stocks, anyone?
Tirekicker - let me know when you decide to run for public office. I may quit my job to work on your campaign :-)
Alright, so this issue about Biofuels... I believe biofuels DO make sense from an economic standpoint. If not, then why would countries such as the US, Japan, Germany, Brazil et al be so enthusiastic about it?
Consider:
"As nearly one-half of the labor force in developing countries is employed in agriculture, this boost to incomes could have a significant effect on the purchasing power of rural people"
Yet, biofuel is not just about developing countries and rural people. It's a broader reaching issue than that. Demand for anything ethanol-related is a sexy topic and commodities related to this area, e.g. agricultural futures and anything related to biofuel feedstock are reflecting aggressive investments.
Several blue chip companies have made substantial VC investments in ethanol technology. Bill Gates has infused over $100MM this past year to various biofuel initiatives.
I'm just saying... this is definitely a NEXT BIG THING.
It may not be fully manifested in our capital markets, but the momentum is there and it's not just about flex-fuel cars!
An interesting read:
Biofuels: Promises and Constraints
come talk to me if you actually get a full time offer.
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Does GS AmSSG/ESSG recruit undergrads?
I'd like to know the answer to this question as well..
all the people I've met from ESSG are relatively experienced to be honest. You probably need 2-3 years behind you to get a junior role.
Thanks Scandi
renewable energy credits / carbon emissions
What's the next big thing in our current market?
Anything with "leveraged," "distressed," or "turnaround" in the title.
woah, way to bring up an old thread from 2007....interesting to see what everyone thought 5 years ago...
Yea crazy and a few were on the money.
The next big thing? War and exhaustible resources.
twerking. it's here to stay
Power Generation 1-7MW
The Next Hot Trend? (Originally Posted: 06/12/2013)
Has anyone ever heard of litigation financing? I'm interested to hear what people think, it's basically betting on million dollar lawsuits. It's like managing a HF but investing in law suits. It seem's like you could get extremely high returns doing this...
http://abovethelaw.com/2013/04/litigation-finance-the-next-hot-trend/
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/investing-in-lawsuits
On a slightly different note, I recall that there were some HFs buying out the claims of some of the Madoff victims for pennies on the dollar.
I bet that this will be primary focused on patent trolling for small firms.
Future trends, emerging markets, and next-gen technologies are three facets of the industry that interest me greatly. I have a little notebook that I write tickers and notes of companies, products, Nd trends that catch my eye, or that I have a feeling will get hot.
I don't know much about LF, so I am going to look into it; maybe it can help strengthen my personal portfolio even further, thanks!
How is this any different from distressed debt investing? Since distressed debt really trades on laws and documents rather than as an asset class, it's very much like when any other claims are traded on that desk.
Because the source of return is different; distressed debt is acquiring risky debt based off a company's financial issues.
Litigation funding is acquiring an equity claim on the proceedings of a case.
Solar is going to be the next big thing (Originally Posted: 11/08/2011)
Industry growing at an annual rate of 65% for the past 5 years, prices adjusted for inflation falling 7% a year:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/solar-is-getting-ch…
This resurgence is coming out of the Krugman camp - so I'm especially skeptical. Thanks for the share.
Here is an interesting article from Bloomberg with regards to Solar Manufacturers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/most-solar-manufacturers-may-d…
Yes, because ethanol is the future too....
Ethanol and solar have key differences that set solar apart. Solar panels can be used anywhere. You don't need to centralize them like you do a factory farm. Sure, centralized solar cells in the desert work well for generating a lot of electricity. But solar cells attached to homes and buildings can generate a nice amount of power as well. Furthermore, solar power actually helps the environment, whereas ethanol takes food out of peoples mouths and puts it into gas tanks.
The solar industry is risky and undefined, despite having been around for a while now. It does have the potential to become an enormous disrputer, and thus might be worth the risk if you have the time and the capital.
Yes anywhere...anywhere for a few hours a day...if it isn't dark...and if it isn't too cloudy...or raining...or snowing.
On a serious note, I think solar is just to cost prohibitive at this point for mass consumption. I do think, however, that there is no silver bullet when it comes to energy...at least at this point. There will potentially be high CapEx for just about any new energy, whether it's buying a solar panel and having it installed or building out a nationwide CNG infrastructure. My point being, solar could be added to the equation and provide some help, but ultimately it isn't the saving grace some people make it out to be.
I think it's important to remember that large portions of fuel consumption come from commercial transportation. It isn't feasible for a semi truck to be completely solar powered whether it is by having panels on the roof of the cab or by converting it to an electric motor that is charged from a solar powered charging station.
Also consider how many people live in an apartment all of their lives...or even most of it. They aren't going to purchase a social cell because they will eventually move and likely can't take it with them. Also think about how many people buy houses but move several times in the course of their lives. I remember reading...and this could be very dated...but the breakeven point on solar panels was like 30 years for the average consumer and that was only with government rebates on the purchase. Granted prices will come down over time but I don't think it will be cheap enough for people to consider purchasing one for a house they may only live in for 5 or 10 years. Then, on top of that, you have to factor in all the people that live paycheck to paycheck, who couldn't afford to layout several thousand dollars at any given point in their life because they are still putting gas in their tanks $5 at a time.
Then you factor in the lack of sun in some areas of the country due to geographic location or inclement weather, etc. and you have a technology that is only useful some of the time.
Again, like I mentioned above, it could help minimize our dependence on other forms of energy, but it isn't going to wipe it out over night.
Regards
I certainly agree they are two totally different things, but both the wrong answer. Solar definitely offers greater benefit, but I would bet in the coming years that extremely efficient, no-waste, sources of energy will show up. Didn't you see Wall Street 2? Just remember that ledouche called it.
The next big thing huh...you mean like POGS? Im sure i still have a kickass slammer somewhere.
In related news we will live on the moon by the year 2000.
Regards, 1965
Ethanol is definitely not the future. The energy reduction cost of using it as a primary fuel source is marginally worse than the cost of cutting down vast amounts of forestry to make room for the necessary additional corn production. The main problem with solar right now lies in the inefficiency of energy absorption and transfer. Today's panels can only effectively capture a small percentage of the heat energy from sunlight, and this is what prevents solar from being one of the largest sources of energy.
I haven't seen WS2.
Photovoltaic cells do not use heat....
The next big energy source will be one that can be capitalized the best. Highly doubt it can be predicted right now, only reason to guess solar is because of how long it's been around and we can see how far its come over the years....
Mediabanker - Thanks for saving me the trouble of finding the bloomberg article you posted. I read it yesterday and thought it read god awful for solars. Only the strongest will survive that is for sure.
No problem. That article was literally the first thing that came to mind when I saw the thread.
haha same here.
Hilarious letter in today's WSJ from the White House's adviser on green energy. Also doesn't really bode well for the solar camp.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240529702045542045770258541536426…
:O
... solar doesn't really work. No efficient way to store the energy. Tell me that again, when the battery problem is solved.
Ironically enough, Saudi Arabia is in the process of developing the world's largest solar farm in the middle of the desert. The way it works, apparently, is that the energy produced from the solar panels is supposed to heat compressed air that will spin huge turbines in a huge tower right in the middle of the solar farm. I haven't even mentioned the nuclear powerplant the government is building lol no worries, none of that Iran crap. US gave us the green light.
It only makes sense for them to worry about it. Saudi Arabia is using approximately 10-15% of the oil it produces everyday. That number is only growing.
Long oil, anyone?
Solar has been the next big thing for a decade now, lol. My vote is on nuclear fission, ftw.
umm nuclear fission is already around...it's kind of how they power nuclear reactors. Just make sure you don't leave the IBD.
Cold nuclear fission, my bad
solar might not go up too high IF they find alternative and more powerful energy sources that can charge faster and hold more charges. solar is weak - it can't keep up with our growth rate for powerful energy-hungry electronics
The ignored ‘Next Big Thing’ & India (Originally Posted: 05/23/2014)
What will the world need the most in the next 30 years?? Renewable energy? Super-smart phones? Or extra-ordinary Nano materials? One thing that is safely ignored in the list by many is…FOOD. A world with more than 7 billion people (and expected 2 billion more to come) would certainly need the proportionate amount of food to contain the population. According to WHO data, the Global per capita food consumption, which was 2358 Kcal per capita per day in 1964 is estimated to be 2940 Kcal per capita per day in 2015. The impressive aspect being that the consumption is expected to be almost uniform all over the world except in the industrialized countries (3440), Sub-Saharan Africa (2360) and South Asia (2700). In short, food consumption per person has increased significantly throughout the world. The Global consumption is expected to reach 3050 Kcal per capita per person in 2030 and all regions are expected to follow the pattern.
How the demand will be met?
Well we cannot extrapolate all the data and conclude that simply growing more will satisfy the population. Food patterns have considerably changed in the past decades. The world is now more dependent on processed foods and animal based products. While the food processing and beverage markets have seen the highest growth in developed nations, the developing nations are catching up. Whereas the US, the UK, Germany, India, and China are some of the top producers of processed food and beverages, Saudi Arabia, Asia, Africa, Russia and South America are some of the leading importers. The case is similar with animal based products. Annual per capita meat consumption in developing nations increased 150% from 1964 to 1999 and dairy products consumption increased by 60% in the same period. It is predicted that, by 2030, per capita consumption of livestock products could increase by a further 44%.
The case of India
In India, the rapidly increasing urban middle class population is turning to processed food ranging from packed fruits to dairy products meant for daily use. The diet that once consisted of homemade bread (Rotis) and dishes now has sauces and soft drinks as fixed components. According to industry estimates, the processed food market accounts for 32 percent of the total food market in India that is approximately US$29.4 billion in a total estimated market of US$91.66 billion. The sector is growing at 10% every annum. The Government of India has allowed FDI up to 100 per cent in food processing sector through automatic route. For promotion and development of the food processing sector, it has allocated a sum of Rs 5,990 crore (US$ 1 billion) under various schemes of the food processing industries ministry during the 12th Five Year Plan. Along with strong domestic demand India has great export opportunities in Food processing. The coastal belts are already export hubs for sea food. In 2012-13, exports of marine products reached an all-time high of $3511.67 million. The industry faces its share of challenges too like constraints in raw material production, less availability of cost effective technology in food machinery, packaging and processing plants and inadequate infrastructure facilities. However, majority of these challenges can be met through adequate capital inflow.
Overall the food processing industry, especially in developing nations, could be in the list of ‘next big things’, although it may not be the biggest of them all.
Great post!
what companies do you see benefiting from this? immediately coming to my mind are stocks like YUM, GIS, and K, not to mention the firms that make the special seeds to help raise crop yield like SYT, BASF, Bayer (cropscience division) and others.
what I'm curious about for India is infrastructure, they have a golden opportunity in front of them, but do they have the infrastructure to capitalize on it?
Regarding India, no the infrastructure is not there and it's something that is holding them back. I haven't been for about 2.5 years but I doubt it's changed. There are rolling blackouts in Delhi and Mumbai and electricity in rural India is barely there. The roads in urban area exist but aren't super and when you get to rural India they're horrible. Hopefully the new administration will relax FDI and other capital inflow rules but there's so much possibility there that's untapped because of infrastructure in general.
One quick observation, 3440 average calories consumed per day per capita in industrialized countries? can that possibly be right? that is an enormous amount of food, i'm a moderately active male that eats about 2000 per day to keep the weight off. is kcal a different unit than "calories" in the US?
I don't know where the data in the post is coming from, but it's not too much of a stretch for us to believe it. On the one had, there is a tremendous amount of under-reporting in how many calories you actually consume. People tend to eat more than they think. On the other, the extra calories consumed explain why there are so many overweight individuals in the US!
By consumed I assume they mean "purchased", not "ingested", so that figure is probably including everything we throw away.
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-07/could-liquid-replace-food
done.
next big thing (Originally Posted: 01/01/2008)
Someone picked up this topic in the private equity forum, but I thought it would be interesting to discuss this here as well. How much longer will the "investment banking fad" last? Will it still have the same amount of prestige and selectivity 10years down the line? Will there be anything more lucrative than investment banking in the coming years for fresh graduates, just like how advertising was the "hot career" in the 60s, conglomerates in the 70s, bond trading in the 80s, dot com and vc in the 90s, and investment banking and pe/hf for this decade.
Investment banks will continue to be selective. There aren't that many prestigious firms to begin with, and getting a job in a class of a max of 150 at GS/MS/LEH/ML/JPM will always be incredibly difficult.
Corporations need to raise equity/debt and sometimes merge, the expertise and access to capital that investment banks have are needed to keep the financial markets running smooth.
Understand that although people generally dismiss investment bankers as monkeys, you have to be pretty sharp to understand certain concepts and ultimately churn out pretty much flawless work.
Compensation isn't incredibly high as an analyst given the hours worked (~$25/hour). Say comp were to go down to 65k all in, and hours stay at ~90/week for an analyst... Top candidates would head for greener pastures, and IB wouldn't be as prestigious. In such a case, I'd argue that the economy had deteriorated to the point that the financial markets were in chaos, or junior level positions were outsourced.
Even if analyst positions were outsourced (doubtful), I'd say that senior levels of IB (which you'd be approaching after a few years) would still be extremely prestigious. Comp would be high as well.
PE/VC/HF may be a bit more cyclical, new things may pop up. That's why a base in a structured 2 yr IBD is so valuable. You can roll with those punches later.
To be honest (I hate to shatter peoples' dreams here..) a lot of what banks do is a commodity. Bank in the 1980s and earlier when information was much harder to come by and we didn't have resources like CapIQ/Factset etc., bankers provided value simply by showing up with the appropriate information in hand.
In the end, investment bankers are just agents; look at what Zillow and the Internet has done to the real estate business and real estate agents and I think there is some ground to the business becoming increasingly commoditized.
Will analysts be completely outsourced? No, of course not. But larger firms are outsourcing and have been doing so for quite some time.
If you look at other recent developments like the portal market for PE-owned companies seeking liquidity as well, it seems likely that others have realized the above as well.
I don't mean to cause controversy or offend anyone with the above. I guess the bottom-line is that history shows nothing stays "hot" forever and it would be unreasonable to expect that banking will be everyone's dream job indefinitely.
I agree with dosk17. History has showed that nothing stays hot forever. Besides wouldn't rampant competition between investment banks bring down salaries and bonuses? It's only logical to conclude that investment banks likes other industries follow a business cycle and will surely reach a down point. It may be in the growth/mature stage right now but eventually it would start to decline as an industry no matter how much someone may need advice with valuations or capital raising. There may be a point when firms would start raising capital without the help of investment banks or would be complacent to hire their own bankers and create their own mini-banking divisions to do so.
It seems that some of you made quite a few speculative comments that were incorrect.
"Besides wouldn't rampant competition between investment banks bring down salaries and bonuses?"
I doubt the first thing they would cut is salaries or bonuses. IB is a highly competitive field because it hires intelligent candidates who are well compensated. If things went horribly at a company, companies usually will shell out higher bonuses to keep top-level management and great employees. See Bear Stearns Companies also cut costs through a number of other ways before taking from the bonuses of their employees, pretty much the best way to have an employee want to quit/leave. Especially money hungry analysts.
"It's only logical to conclude that investment banks likes other industries follow a business cycle and will surely reach a down point."
Last time I checked its happening now. Salaries are still up, banking is still "hot" See every major bank minus GS huge write downs
"There may be a point when firms would start raising capital without the help of investment banks or would be complacent to hire their own bankers and create their own mini-banking divisions to do so."
IB is not useful enough to have a division within your company, cost ineffective. I dont think IB will be hot forever but it will sustain itself by adjusting to the markets needs. Anyone who can offer that salary and guarentees financial benefit pay scale (analyst -associate - ...) will have top graduates at their doorstep resume in hand.
Going back to the original Q. I think things/businesses related to the climate change will more or less dominate the next 10 or 100 years. Be it fuel efficient cars, snowmakers, energy efficient "everything", cars that run on water, devices that make water you can drink from sea water, alternative energy...you get the idea. Anything will be hot that will A.) slow down global warming B.) cure the effects of the already existing and coming aftermath. However no one really cares now, but the warming of the Globe will cause serious headaches to mankind and probably is the next big thing that will shape global politics too (think of wars for natural resources like water or oil--> /Iraq/). This trend is comming inevitably, so if you are in it one way or another, you can't go wrong for sure. But psssst, we do not wanna talk out the secret :-)
I think funds investing in this stuff will make nice returns. Think of the indexes created by the major banks tracking "green companies". That indicates something.
I think it is wrong to call banking a fad or a "hot" industry. Investment banking has been an attractive and lucrative industry for decades if not longer. And while it has indeed become a commodity (at least in the US and UK), it will continue to be attractive and prestigious at the analyst level for as long as it acts as a feeder into even more attractive and prestigious industries (dotcom, VC, PE, HF, the next hot thing, etc.). There is little indication that this is changing.
At the more senior levels, commoditization of the industry has resulted in less prestige (and relatively lower compensation) and most of the real talent has accordingly moved onto to other areas of finance (PE and HF). However, investment banking as an industry is here to stay as it performs a valuable service to its clients (especially for debt and equity raises, less and less so for process-driven M&A).
As for the next hot thing...plastics.
...
Bio-technology for the next decade... N'uff said!
No matter what the banks profit, they are the middle man ripping it all off. Tech bubble? Tons of IPO money for the bank. VC? Tons of IPO money for the bank. HF? Tons of money for the S&T departments.
Remember, you will always be a salesman, no matter how fancy your title is. - My ex girlfriend
Could this be the next big thing? (Originally Posted: 01/18/2011)
Just came across this new start-up here in Toronto. It's the first of it's kind based on what I've seen. What do you guys think of the business model?
www.tuzo.ca
I remember reading an article about Game Theory a few months back, and one of the people that was interviewed was a guy doing this very thing. Something about wanting to build a game layer over reality.
That sounds interesting. Do you remember the name of the company/person?
http://www.scvngr.com/
this guy?
Shameless self promotion?
That's pretty cool. Location enabled cell phones can open up a whole world in the industry of mobile gaming. Sweet concept.
It looks really fun, like real-life gaming.
Pretty shameless plagiarism on the part of that canadian start-up. As far as I can see it is literally a copy of scavenger!
Well, to be fair, I don't think Scvngr came out that long ago, so they might've been in early development at least by the time S was rolled out
The next big thing (Originally Posted: 09/06/2011)
There's an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. 'I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.' And we've always tried to do that at Apple. Since the very very beginning. And we always will. —Steve Jobs
The agricultural revolution, than the industrial revolution, the dot. com bubble, finance industry did quite well for some time. Which sectors do you guys believe is going to be the next revolution/wave?
Agricultural revolution again??
Tech and finance ain't dead.
They are NOT dead but they are mature markets now.
I think tech has a long way to go... so many new things in development that can change the world as we know it.
I hate when people speak vaguely about "tech"
that doesn't mean shit.... everything is "technology"
I guess tech in layman terms is electronics, that how I perceive it when some speaks about it in layman terms. I think it is normal to mean electronics by saying tech.
But only DM can clarify what he means.
Agricultural bio-tech
Pharmacogenetics. Period.
valentino suits and oliver peoples glasses
I think the last "big thing" was the internet, and of which we shall continue to accrue the benefits for a few more centuries.
I think the future is in space in search of raw materials and answers.
In a couple of years there will be regular flights to space for normal tourist for $200k and soon the price will be reduced drastically as the number of tourists keeps increasing.
We can book our seats here
http://www.virgingalactic.com/booking/
I meant technology in general, everything from healthcare to internet (or the new internet) to electronics, and so on
That covers way too wide array of sectors.
You asked what the next big thing is, all of "technology" has the potential to be the next big thing.
boner pills
flying cars
Samsung & Jay-Z - The Next Big Thing? (Originally Posted: 06/17/2013)
Anyone hear of the business deal between Samsung and Jay-Z? A 3 minute Samsung commercial was aired during Game 5 of the NBA finals showing Jay-Z working on his album with producers Rick Rubin, Pharrell, Swizz Beatz and Timbaland.
I think its smart: Jay gets $5 million in sales before the album is released, and Samsung adds incentive to buy a Galaxy product, while getting a ton of exposure from the larger-than-life presence of Jay Z. In my opinion, the $5 million + advertising is a small price tag for Samsung to pay for the amount of brand attention they are going to get.
What are your guys' thoughts on this?
Yes - $5MM for Jay-Z advertising - excellent move. This is void, of course, if some big scandal involving Jay-Z or Beyonce arises.
So basically we're all getting the album 3 days ahead of the release date since this is a free leak
Makes the Samsung 'cool' - something I think it is struggling with at the moment (in comparison to other comparable phones, it is seen as a bit nerdy). Great price to pay to potentially shed this image, and ultimately increase sales.
Jay-z is technically already platinum before even dropping his album.
After hearing the abomination that is Yeezus (minus a couple of ok songs), I'm just excited that there's another album to look forward to this summer.
People look forward to Kanye albums?
Substitute "Kanye albums" with "the next crazy thing Kanye will pull out of his/his publicist's a*s" and we're good
I'm loving Kanye's album, blood on the leaves is just so raw. Looking forward to snatching the jay-z one once its all over the internet.
Last time I checked, Samsungs cool factor was through the roof. I was just at the bars over the weekend, and every girl I ran into was way into my Note II. Not to mention over half of them had some form of Android phone.
Born Sinner?
heister would use a Samsung Note.
I'm pretty excited about Jay's new album, should be good... hopefully
I was expecting much more from J Cole, decent album though. Maybe I just held him to extremely high standards since I've been bumping his music for a while now.
I haven't listened to a song I decided this will be the second album I'll purchase so I'm going to listen to it tomorrow.
Why the Next Big Thing isn't happening... (Originally Posted: 10/25/2017)
Marijuana has sporadically made the headlines ever since 2012 when Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize the substance for recreational use. Today, recreational use of marijuana is now legal in eight states, but it seems that nationwide legalization is far from a reality. This stems from marijuana legalization's biggest hurdle: GOP leadership in Congress.
What, for some, once seemed sure to be "the next big thing" is now being constricted of any consideration by leading Republicans.
What other once-promising "next big thing" is facing hindrances to its success? (Ex: Certain biosimilars vs. FDA approval)
Hi tyrone slothrop, whoops, looks like nobody chimed in here.... maybe one of these discussions below is relevant:
More suggestions...
Fingers crossed that one of those helps you.
Is 3D printing the next big thing? (Originally Posted: 03/30/2013)
I had the pleasure of attending SXSW this year and witnessed what I think is the next BIG thing in technology. We’ve all talked about Google’s Project Glass and its potential to change the way we view and interact with our environment. We’ve also all seen the crazy shit that cell phones are now capable of doing, but after watching/reading up on what the guys at MakerBot are working on, I can’t help but think that once 3D printing technology becomes main stream, it will be a real game changer. Imagine that you have some object in your living room that you no longer like. You want something similar, but no longer like the look of the object you currently have. With MakerBot’s scanner (they showcased a fully functional prototype, but are working out some kinks and hope to release a finished product sometime in the near future), one can simply take the object, scan it, turn it into a CAD file, and then manipulate it to one’s liking. Afterwards, you can use your 3D printer to print your newly modified object. Or, if you lack creativity, you can just go online, download someone’s CAD file and print it for your use.
Personally, I am really excited to see what kind of things people can come up once they have this technology in their hands. What do you guys think? Time to load up on stock of publicly traded companies that are currently producing these printers (see Stratasys, 3D Systems Corp.)? Or is this just another gimmick that will never go main stream due to the high costs of printers/ technology that the average Joe doesn’t understand?
After originally writing this article, I came across a documentary that MOTHERBOARD did with Cody Wilson (the guy who figured out how to print guns from his house). Link is below, well worth watching in its entirety. He claims with technology like this, gun control is a thing of the past and can no longer be achieved.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/DconsfGsXyA?rel=0
I think so. Moore's Law. SSYS looks well positioned with the recent acquisition.
Offtopic, but from the same channel :
, what the fuck?!
I saw this a while back. Dude's hands shake like crazy.
I think it will be big, but right now the hype is ahead of the technology (see: 3D printing stocks). Cody is an example of this. If you watch the documentary, you'll see that he can't actually be a gun yet (and will never be able to build a full one b/c some of the critical components have to be made of metal).
If you watch the documentary, or know anything about the AR-15/M4, you'll see/know he can build the part of the weapon with the serial number on it. The rest of the weapon is just "parts" which can all be purchased as easily as any other consumer product. There is no need to print an entire gun. He did the part that counts.
Definitely the wave of the future in commercial manufacturing, but about a century or two too early for consumer use.
I think it may be the next big thing but its a while out.
I'm actually really excited about this, but this is more a vc type investment still i think. The price of these printers is still way too expensive for individual consumers, and iunno if publically traded printer companies will be turning a profit on these types of printers for the next couple of decades
"A century or two" ?!
Yes, a century. This is like one of those things you see on TV--like, a hydrolic work chair--that is really cool but its cost to manufacture and acquire and its everday applications are inconsistent with a country comprised largely of lower middle and middle middle class consumers. Would the average consumer purchase a $1,000 3D printer so that they can manufacture a cheap, plastic POS lamp? The answer is no. Would a typical products manufacturer consider purchasing a $10,000 or $100,000 or $1 million commercial grade 3D printer? Heck yeah. It's not going to be a consumer product any time in the foreseeable future--it's going to be a commercial product. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the 3D printer never catches on as a consumer product.
I'm sure the same was said about computers, cell phones, and early dot matrix printers.. I disagree 100% on your assessment of both the future capabilities, time-frame and how long it's going to take for the price to come down to the consumer level. I'm long DDD @ the current price and waiting for an imminent short squeeze with a 30% short float.
^^^agree that the professional use is much more imminent (in fact already applicable), but 1) that doesn't mean these aren't profitable or useful companies/technologies (applications to dentistry, prosthetic, auto industry, etc are already in place/getting in place and are extremely profitable areas) and 2) again you must consider moore's law. These things get exponentially cheaper and easier to produce as we go along. In fact the cost to produce has already come down greatly. It's really not even prohibitively expensive for someone to own these for personal use as is (expensive yes, but it's not impossible).
We definitely aren't at the point of practical home use yet, but I disagree greatly that this is centuries (even decades away).
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