Cryptocurrency has potential to cause crash similar to 2008 repost

Over the past 2 years i have been doing in depth research into cryptocurrency and i have come to a conclusion, it is in a massive bubble. My first reason for this is i believe the entire cryptocurrency market is one big castle in the air where people are only buying into the coins in order for making gains rather than actually using them for their actual value, this isn't in itself a bad thing but i believe that the ONLY reason people are buying is that they assume other people are going to keep buying which leads to a never ending cycle to where it is now today, something that has been built up so heavily on that mentality it is now drastically overvalued.

Another reason i feel the crypto market will crash is the lack of regulation. Here i will give you a specific example for this one, back a couple of weeks ago i made a youtube video just search Why chain coin has gone up 470% in the last 7 days and why i don't think it will last much longer on youtube to find it) calling out a cryptocurrency called chain coin, basically what was happening was a guy on youtube named high on coins got some people together and bought a ton of chain coin and pretty much executed a massive pump and dump, this guy high on coins started making really vague videos that they had created a "wall" for the currency so it couldn't go below a certain point but as i pointed out in my video all it took was 1 person in the wall to dump and chain coin would be sent into free fall. In the next couple of days i got some serious hate comments saying i had no idea what i was talking about and i was retarded. I uploaded the video on july 17th and at the time chain coin was priced at 4.27, 2 weeks later like i predicted chain coin had gone down to .6. My point is this, i know every currency is not as crappy as chain coin, but if something like chain coin can occur in this system with no punishment in my opinion it delegitimizes the entire system when fraud of that level can occur unpunished.

Another point i want to make is how closely the cryptocurrency market resembles the tech market in the late 90's. Ok i'm pretty much just going to quote a paragraph from a random walk down wall street and tell me it isn't identical to the state of the crypto market. "Robert shiller, in his book irrational exuberance, describes bubbles in terms of "positive feedback loops." a bubble starts when any group of stocks, in this case those associated with the excitement of the internet bubble, begin to rise. The updraft encourages more people to buy, which creates big profits for early internet stockholders. The successful investors tell you at cocktail parties how easy it is to get rich, which causes the stocks to rise further, which pulls in larger and larger groups of investors. But the whole mechanism is a kind of ponzi scheme where more and more credulous investors must be found to buy the stock from the earlier investors. Eventually, one runs out of greater fools." (pg 80). Honestly do i need to say more? Like that almost word for word replicates what is currently going on in the crypto market. Also another example is the way people in this market react to a new cryptocurrency. I have seen first hand in youtube videos there is a mindset that everyone wants to find the next dash coin or etherium that almost any new cryptocurrency that debuts sees insane gains before people even have time to figure out what even differentiates the coin from the rest. This almost perfectly replicates the mentality in the late 90's where people would go crazy over anything that had technologies or net in the company name regardless of if it even had anything to even do with technology.

Ok so at this point you are probably saying to yourself "ok so maybe there is a bubble in a small sector that's not that bad". Well this is where things get 10x worse, at the moment there is a huge race in wall street to create the first cryptocurrency etf and i think this is a doomsday device. The way i see it is the crypto currency bond or etf will do to the american market what the mortgage bond did to our market in 2008. Once this etf or bond gets released into the mainstream people will go crazy trying to get it and eventually we will see big banks and hedge funds get involved. I see this occurring over the next 2 year. We will start to see the famous fall street big wigs like jim cramer start going crazy on there tv shows saying you need to get a hold of these crypto etf's. We will begin to see people saying the famous 3 lessons of Benjamin Graham no longer apply in this new age of cryptocurrency.

So now i will get into what i think will be the catalyst for the cryptocurrency crash and what effect i think that will have in the market. I think the catalyst will come in the form of a simple correction, the types of people who have been buying into these cryptocurrencies are very inexperienced millennials who have never experienced or have the willpower to go through a 10 to 20% correction if it everywhere to occur. So i see that in maybe early 2019 at the peak of crypto mania we will see a major correction possibly due to a billion dollar hedge fund sell off or something along those lines and at that point we will see a huge millennial selloff as a reaction to that correction that will send these etf's and bond's into free fall and i'm projecting the entire crypto market to lose 50 to 80% of its value in a matter of weeks and during this time we will see the population wake up to how overvalued these currencies are. At this point the big banks will have had exposure to the crypto market, and i see this sort of exposure combined with a 50 to 80% drop in value could potentially send a big bank or 2 into bankruptcy and i guarantee there will not be a bailout after what happened in 08, so i could see this potentially sending the market into a recession. But this part is mainly my opinion on what will happen, but the one thing i can guarantee is there will be a 50 to 80% drop in value of the crypto market in the next 2 years. So with that being said i would recommend executing shorts on the crypto currency etf's and bonds in the coming months if you want to profit off of this crash.

Ok so now you maybe asking yourself why is a 18 year old going around making these claims on the internet and if he does believe this to be true why doesn't he just execute these shorts and keep to himself to make a greater profit. Whell the simple answer is i have nowhere near enough capital need to profit off of these shorts. So my main goal in posting this is to impress hedge fund managers or people in similar positions in order to get a possible internship. I consider myself well versed in the teachings of benjamin graham, and i also have been doing so pretty serious market research since i was about 14 and i also have done extensive research into historical market crashes and you are welcome to quiz me in the comments if you don't believe me, but with that being said i still feel i have a lot more to learn and i think an internship would be the perfect way to fulfil that. So if anyone reading this is in a higher up position at a bank or a hedge fund and is in any way impressed by what i am saying i would greatly appreciate an opportunity to do an unpaid internship in order to take my investing knowledge to the next level, and thankyou for your time. My email is dokeefe15.hhs@gmail if you wish to contact me in any way.

Also i am open to any questions in the comments but i do ask not to grill my age or lack of experience in the comments, we are all adults here and there is no need for that type of behavior.

 

No matter the hype around cryptos, it just feels weird investing into what's essentially thin air. But yeah, the market is likely bound to crash or have regulations imposed, so now's the time to make whatever there is to be made off of them

Anyway, do you seriously expect some HF partner to pop up and say "Gee this kid was right, let's get him an internship". There are thousands upon thousands speculating on the eventual demise of cryptocurrencies, you better step your game up.

To infinity... and beyond!
 

believe it or not i actually already have an internship with a hedge fund lined up, and i also meant in the article i know a lot more about the markets than just the crypto bubble, this was more or less just a way to beef up my resume, because predicting a market crash usually looks pretty good, historically speaking

 

your argument that if a pump and dump can occur unpunished in this system, among less reputable coins, then the whole system must be bad doesn't make much sense. the same thing occurs in the stock market oftentimes unpunished. does that mean the entirety of the stock market must be "illegitimate"?

your quote also assumes that we'll run out of interested parties, which will prompt a crash. do people need currency? are there problems with state-regulated currency? as long as those two questions are true, i can't imagine running out of people who would be interested in a currency that has no transaction limits, no fees, no "holds," no quantitative easing that has proved unsuccessful in the past, etc.

 

You've been doing "in-depth research" on crypto for the past 2 years and this is what you put forth as a thesis? You can't even spell "ethereum" right. For what it's worth, altcoins are and will continue to remain in bubble territory mainly due to the fact that 95% of them have little to no value prospects. And while there is a lot of speculation present, a good number of people will remain skeptics until we see some consumer-based implementation (i.e. as a medium of exchange, store of value, etc.) This isn't even close to the subprime mortgage crisis.

2/10 post for effort though.

 

Totally see where you're coming from and I agree that a good portion of this is speculative, but I think your Analysis discounts the practicality and actual use of blockchain technology. I do agree that these other alt coins essentially mirror the P&D vehicles of the tech bubble, however the main coins, particularly bitcoin and ethereum do have practical use given the recent growth and ubiquity of fintech.

Additionally, your analysis seems to inflate the effect a bitcoin etf could have on global markets. Key to remember is the reason we had a crash in 2008 and in 2000 was bc our economy was so deeply intertwined with the assets in question. CDO's based on irresponsibly granted mortgages and tech companies given sky high valuations that had nonexistent cash flows. I don't see the crypto market getting that level of intertwined with the underbelly of our current economy.

This is a market I've done a lot of research on through my university's research portal, so if you'd like to discuss/debate this further I'd welcome a conversation.

 

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