Simple businesses to analyse in order to create a 3-statement model
Hello everyone, I've learned the basics of three-statement modeling through Wall Street Prep and my university courses. I want to apply the skills I've learned to a real-world company and develop my own assumptions as opposed to them just being given to me. I know there are plenty of complex businesses with intricate models out there, so to start, I wanted to ask for your recommendations on which companies/sectors would be good for beginner modeling.
Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some recommendations for simple businesses to analyze in order to create a 3-statement model:
To get started, you can use resources like Wall Street Prep online courses, which go very in-depth and provide a ton of resources and lessons. Once you can build models from their lessons, creating another model from a different template should be relatively straightforward. Additionally, you can use templates from sites like macabacus.com to practice and refine your skills.
Sources: SOS - Best way to learn modeling?, Is modeling more difficult in certain sectors versus others?, Seeking advice on Corporate Banking modeling, To All Freshman and Sophomores, Help with Writing ER Reports for Beginners (Value Investing)
Use a software company.
Try a smaller cap consumer product company. Some snack, beverage company.
THank you will check that out. Just curious here, how did you go about learning how to think about the way a business operates? Did you also start trying to model companies in different sectors? Any advice would be appreciated. Thank you
Yes, look at many companies in different spaces and start to see a catalog of revenue models (P*Q, ARPU*sub, some sort of industry volume * take-rate which applies to restaurants as well = system sales * average royalty rate, usage model, etc)
Just a tip when learning how to ‘model’, it’s not actually about the excel assumptions / inputs and outputs, it’s about having a thesis on the trajectory of the business and translating all of the real word inputs into an excel model that gives you a good idea of what the future holds - therefore confirming if you should invest or not and at what price, if so.
I know that sounds like wax on wax off mr. Miyagi BS, but I say this to say: before just jumping into your own assumptions input, I’d study the assumptions given to you and work on translating what that assumptions means for the point of the overall business ie - why is this assumed growth increase making the company more valuable? It’s because higher growth without higher expenses means more cash flow. Or - why does this model assume EBITDA Margin expansion of 10% over five years? Because the company experiencing operating leverage and making their sales organization more efficient frees up more cash for investment without deprecating revenue growth, which means more cash.
Not all business you model will have that perfect up and to the right trajectory that these case models will give you. As you develop a stronger business acumen, you’ll be able to translate more real world impacts into a line of the model, which means depending on those assumptions - you have a better business or a worse off business. Thing like - company releasing a new product into a crowded market that requires investment in a new special factory or special technical team, or things like a company needing to go through a RIF to accelerate a path to profitability - just try to understand the skill isn’t really the “model” it’s the effective translation of qualitative information into a quantitative thesis. It’s a marathon not a sprint.
Thank you, its both scary and motivating to see how many different factors could be contributing to a single assumption, which then contributes to eneterpise value. Reminds me how much I don't know. I've got a follow on question that I hope you can answer.
You mentioned translating real world assumptions to your model. One thing that I still don't understand is how its possible to take qualitative information and translate that into things like growth/decay rates (quantitative data).
An example,
I recently had to build a DCF for Trane Technologies, I was trying to think about what factors factors would affect revenue. There is obviously industry growth/trends and there is also company specific factors. I thought of a basic thesis in that revenue will continue to increase from 11% to 18% by 2027 because of three things 1) HVAC industry growth rates 2) Trane being positively exposed to the biggest trend in the industry (sustainability) 3) Trane having record levels of both backlogs and bookings in 2024 YTD.
Because Trane in my opinion Trane was positioned well, I expected revenue to continue to grow. But something I struggled with a lot is deciding how much.
If you were in my position, how would you go about trying to specifically identify the base/bull/bear cases? Or is it naive to think that a specific number can even be applied to any company that I try to value?
This is a long and drawn out question, but I really appreciate your guidance.
Apple BS is pretty clean and hardware/IT is pretty intuitive
I would say that retail is the simplest one (ie. Walmart, Costco, etc). I built an operating and DCF model in a few hours.
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