Greenlight Capital model DCF until year 2120?

So I was reading this presentation David Einhorn gave in 2015 (https://www.greenlightcapital.com/929842.pdf) and noticed that in the Appendix (starting at slide 80), they show their DCF calculations for Consol Energy's oil, gas and coal divisions.

For shale gas, they DCF up to year 2120 and for other divisions, 2070, 2045...

How can somebody make predictions so far away in time? 100 from now, wow! has he a time travel machine? I don't know what to think

6 Comments
 
Most Helpful

Jury is still out on how long horizontal wells will last but its a common assumption in the industry that they can produce for 50 years + with more aggressive long term projections going out past 100 years. What drives this is the use of Arps decline formulas with the key input in this case being the terminal decline, what occurs post-hyperbolic and exponential. Depending on who you're asking and where the wells are drilled, terminals can be anywhere from 5%-15%? I leave a question mark there because certain wells will produce steady and then just fall off the face of the earth when bottom hole pressure declines to a certain point.

Also after glancing at the appendices those look like NAV models which generally speaking assume all proved reserves are developed over time and a company with substantial reserves will need decades to develop their inventory completely.

 
"Walker Texas Banker" Jury is still out on how long horizontal wells will last but its a common assumption in the industry that they can produce for 50 years + with more aggressive long term projections going out past 100 years. What drives this is the use of Arps decline formulas with the key input in this case being the terminal decline, what occurs post-hyperbolic and exponential. Depending on who you're asking and where the wells are drilled, terminals can be anywhere from 5%-15%? I leave a question mark there because certain wells will produce steady and then just fall off the face of the earth when bottom hole pressure declines to a certain point.

Also after glancing at the appendices those look like NAV models which generally speaking assume all proved reserves are developed over time and a company with substantial reserves will need decades to develop their inventory completely.

That's all well and good, but given both the declining production profile of a well and the time value of money (especially at a 10% discount rate), is there really any point to projecting out for the entire life of a well?

Any business can exist for 30-100 years but there's a reason people don't do 30-100 year DCFs on Apple or Microsoft. It's not because the projections are inaccurate; it's because they're ultimately pointless. Your year 89 projections will account for a ridiculously small percentage of the total PV.

 

Optio tempora quibusdam doloribus iste. In qui similique est.

Nihil a aspernatur libero cupiditate ab dolorum ipsam. Atque officiis dolor placeat unde. Voluptate adipisci et eveniet explicabo doloribus iusto nam eos.

“Elections are a futures market for stolen property”
charts
Better Odds of Getting Into Hedge Fund With WSO
We help you land the role or you get free tuition.

Career Advancement Opportunities

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Point72 99.0%
  • D.E. Shaw 98.1%
  • Citadel Investment Group 97.1%
  • AQR Capital Management 96.2%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.2%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Magnetar Capital 99.0%
  • Millennium Partners 98.1%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.1%
  • Blackstone Group 96.1%
  • Citadel Investment Group 95.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • AQR Capital Management 99.1%
  • Point72 98.1%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.2%
  • Citadel Investment Group 96.2%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.3%

Total Avg Compensation

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Portfolio Manager (9) $1,648
  • Vice President (27) $464
  • Director/MD (12) $423
  • NA (9) $320
  • Engineer/Quant (86) $288
  • 3rd+ Year Associate (26) $284
  • Manager (4) $282
  • 2nd Year Associate (32) $253
  • 1st Year Associate (76) $192
  • Analysts (240) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (28) $146
  • Junior Trader (5) $102
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (282) $96
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
kanon's picture
kanon
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
6
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
98.9
9
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
10
Mimbs's picture
Mimbs
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”