Chatgpt can’t predict the future since it’s built off of a language model. It will only know what we’ve already written. If it was a machine learning model then that might be a bit different; then it could teach itself.

Can’t see how a AI in the next 10 years will be able to produce an investment thesis. Consider a distressed HF where the restructuring could go any number of ways. An AI won’t be able to know.

 
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ChatGPT, as a language generation model, has the potential to impact the hedge fund industry in several ways:

  1. Automated reports and market insights: ChatGPT can generate market reports and insights faster and more accurately than a human analyst. This could help hedge funds make data-driven investment decisions more quickly.

  2. Improved investor communications: ChatGPT can be used to communicate with investors in a more personalized and efficient manner.

  3. Portfolio management: ChatGPT can assist portfolio managers in analyzing market trends and generating trade ideas, allowing them to make more informed investment decisions.

  4. Risk management: ChatGPT can be used to analyze large amounts of data to identify potential risks and opportunities, helping hedge funds to manage their risk exposure more effectively.

However, it is important to note that while ChatGPT has the potential to improve efficiency and accuracy in certain aspects of the hedge fund industry, it is not a substitute for human judgement and expertise.

 

The use of ChatGPT and other language models developed by OpenAI is likely to have a significant impact on the human resources (HR) industry. These models have the potential to automate various tasks such as resume screening, candidate interviewing, and even performance evaluation. This can save HR departments time and resources, allowing them to focus on more strategic initiatives.

However, there are also potential downsides to consider. The use of AI in HR may raise concerns about bias and fairness in the hiring process. Additionally, the automation of certain HR tasks may lead to job loss for some HR professionals.

Overall, the impact of ChatGPT and similar AI models on the HR industry will likely be a mixed one, with both benefits and challenges to consider. It will be important for organizations to carefully evaluate the potential benefits and risks before adopting these technologies.

 

I asked ChatGPT a question about a company I was doing some work on, and it fabricated an entire M&A deal that the company had supposedly done with one of their subsidiaries. I almost couldn't believe that it would say something like that while sounding so authoritative. Needless to say, I think our jobs are safe for the time being.

 
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The biggest impact of ChatGPT will be to automate low-level tasks (like summarizing earnings calls) that are currently done by junior analysts, and that will be devastating to the long-term training of junior analysts.

A big part of training for juniors is to do those low-level tasks, and yes it's 90% busy work that could be automated, but the 22 year old junior analyst straight out of college doesn't know anything yet. So you do that low-level work a hundred times, then the patterns start to click and you develop an intuition of why these numbers are important but those numbers aren't, and you learn to notice when an earning report uses a metric that's different than other companies use, or deliberately omits details that are normally included, and you learn to think about why. Why is this company going out of its way to include non-GAAP numbers on the report? And after summarizing the earnings report for the hundredth time, you learn the right level of skepticism and pattern memory ("These earning numbers look good; but I remember when company XYZ said that last year and that was a disaster, but this feels similar...") etc.

  The juniors gradually build an intuition by doing those low-level tasks that becomes crucial as they become more senior. Those low-level tasks are valuable training. If that gets automated away, how do the juniors acquire that knowledge?

 

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