22 Comments
 

It’s been brutal. The garbage rally, quality and crowding underperformance, and sector rotation. Was hoping for a relatively low vol earnings season yuck.

 

What makes it worse is everything being priced in is contrary to what economic data had been coming in at.

and now Taiwan, well off to go risk manage. 

 
Most Helpful

I guess above posters have never worked the HF job or experienced rotations. It’s impossible to hedge out every factor risk.

It’s not like long Cigna / short Humana or whatever is going to perfectly isolate the risk you want. You’re always going to have some factor risk exposure. And when factor moves are huge, even some factor exposure is going to affect you.

Or if you’re long a company that has high AI mix and its closest peer which you’re short has a lower AI mix. Then you’re going to be net long AI and that would probably be shit the last couple days. So is the solution to just short random AI stuff to hedge that net long AI exposure so you’re “AI neutral”? Yea sure but then you add so much other risk doing that. So you figure you might as well be net long AI. You would’ve made enough money YTD anyway.

 

I guess above posters have never worked the HF job or experienced rotations. It’s impossible to hedge out every factor risk.

It’s not like long Cigna / short Humana or whatever is going to perfectly isolate the risk you want. You’re always going to have some factor risk exposure. And when factor moves are huge, even some factor exposure is going to affect you.

Or if you’re long a company that has high AI mix and its closest peer which you’re short has a lower AI mix. Then you’re going to be net long AI and that would probably be shit the last couple days. So is the solution to just short random AI stuff to hedge that net long AI exposure so you’re “AI neutral”? Yea sure but then you add so much other risk doing that. So you figure you might as well be net long AI. You would’ve made enough money YTD anyway.

100%

 

In the last week, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq by 12% (the biggest 1-week outperformance since the TMT bubble burst) and has outperformed the S&P 500 by 10% (the biggest 1-week outperformance since the Black Monday market crash in 1987).

US equities have seen a strong broadening move - 76% of stocks have outperformed the benchmark in the last week, in-line with the best 1W breadth in at least 20 years. Under the hood there has also been clear signs of risk-on moves with Unprofitable Tech up 11 days in a row, the best ever run for the basket. The Russell's 14D RSI is up to 81, the most overbought level in 7 years.

Oof

 

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