Has anyone read this book? I am wondering if it would be recommended as a resource to get smarter on some US economic history, mechanics of the fed, and macro analysis in general.
It’s a pretty long read, so wondering if anyone could give their opinion if it’s worthwhile. For context, I am a college senior with a non econ background. Thanks in advance.
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was wondering how important economic history is for investing, especially HF. Ray Dalio loves it, anyone else does/ finds any merit in it? Is there any merit in Dalio's economic history analyses anyway
I think financial history is very relevant to investing, both at the analyst but especially PM level.
It gives you insights on current macro settings that might have occurred in the past, behavior that keeps on repeating and understanding of cycles. It's useful for short and long term investing.
You couldn't have nailed the recent tech bubble without an understanding of what happened in the early 2000s. And especially you couldn't have understood why today it happens differently than back then.
It improves your grasp of the context you are living.
I sometimes follow a newsletter on fin history (Investor's Amnesia) which I find very useful.
Cheers man, very helpful, thanks for the newsletter rec. Couple questions here if u dont mind:
1) Why is it more helpful for PMs than analysts?
2) This reminds me of a question i thought before in the past and have asked several of my contacts. Building on what you have said, what if there were a hypothetical immortal analyst who has covered the markets since its inception. Would this guy be the best positioned to capture macro trends, armed with his knowledge? I've always wondered, shouldnt investors become smarter and smarter over time? Because we have an ever-increasing database to work on over time. Hence the question of the immortal analyst
3) Financial history assumes the market is weakly inefficient, yes? Cuz we are working on past data, and we think behavior repeats itself in markets. Isn't the main underlying assumption of these macro funds which work on financial history the same as technical analysis? - investor psychology and sentiment repeats itself
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