Bets for a Market Crash in 2016?
Well... What is everyone's opinion on a potential market crash in 2016? Many think it will happen, while many are skeptical. Berkshire Hathaway has been unloading roughly 99% of their stocks which relate to US Consumer based stocks. Many other Hedge Fund owners are doing the same. The market bubble is insane right now, which inevitably means the bubble will burst soon.
Any bets for a 2016 crash similar to 2008-2009?
What's your metric for justifying a market bubble?
Shiller had the home price index before the Great Recession, and price to earnings were insane during the dot-com bubble. What's your metric?
I don't think a crash will happen in 2016. Recovery from 2008 has been slow and the last recession was pretty bad, historically speaking. P/Es are high, but value can still be found in a few sectors like fin services. I think if a correction happens, it'll probably impact high p/e growth stocks the most like what we saw with Ali baba. Also fed raising the interest rates might set off a correction as well. I'm prob gonna buy a few bonds after the interest rate increase as prices increase in the stock market. I'm going into my freshman yr of college though so what I say might be complete bs lol
NASDAQ is at an all-time high right now, DOW is at an all-time high, S&P is at an all-time high. Prices are dangerously inflated right now. Shits looking sketchy.
yeah still not seeing any evidence of a bubble. Markets are at all-time highs since co's have never been more profitable. Risk premia are low given the Fed has pushed everyone into riskier asset classes. This could reverse if the Fed were to raise rates aggressively (which doesn't seem likely). Some industries are clearly elevated here (social/mobile/saas/gaming, some biotech/pharma, autos?), but for the most part I think this cycle still has at least a few year runway.
Demographics around 2025 get pretty nasty. We're likely to see a good pullback by then, if not before...
I don't think there will be a crash because the financial system in the US is much stronger than it was in 2008-2009. That being said, I think stocks are generally overvalued and we could enter into a prolonged bear market or continue going sideways like this year.
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