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Neither, because unless either candidate had incredible work experience, the chances are close to nil without networking. The 4.0 student probably has an edge if any alumni from the non-target are reviewing the applications.
Further there is a strong amount of differentiation between non-targets as well as the school you listed. Just a bad question.
And the OP claims he goes to UC...
These questions are really maddening. I would say forget the hypothetical and create your own path. Do not worry about "Let's say this happens, considering these facts, how do you think this scenario will unfold?" type of questions. If you have the experience, network well enough, and GPA is solid (3.5 is seen as cutoff depending on tier of school), then you should be in a good position to land interviews for recruiting.
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