cash flow sweep question
Hi, got a basic question. Suppose this is a new business, zero cash balance, gets $100 to fund capex in year 1 and have to repay balance (let’s assume via sweep).
If there’s a cash flow sweep mechanism, is it correct to assume that it only kicks in when cumulative FCF is > 0? i.e. if there’s positive cash flow in any given year, it won’t make sense for the sweep to kick in when cumulative FCF is < 0 since it would mean you would still have a shortfall for prior years.
In the example below, have tried to illustrate what I mean. Want to understand whether it’s correct to assume the cash flow sweep kicks in in year 4 (when cumulative FCF is positive) rather than year 3.
Also, want to understand if it’s year 4, then with 50% sweep, should it be off the $100 cash flow number or off the cumulative FCF of $25.
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Year 1 – no revenue, $100 capex results in negative $100 FCF
Year 2 – some revenue, negative $50 cash flow overall. Cumulative FCF of -$150
Year 3 – some revenue, $75 cash flow. Cumulative FCF of -$75
Year 4 – some revenue, $100 cash flow. Cumulative FCF of $25. (If 50% sweep is in place, then $50 gets swept to repay debt)
I don't usually care about cumulative FCF. When FCF for a given year is positive you can then use excess cash for optional repayments. If you have negative FCF for a given year this can be dealt with RCF draw which you can repay first, before any other debt tranches when you are FCF positive (or leave it in BS to refi later on) or even have equity injections to cover the shortfall, depending on the asset / case you're assessing. These are all for desktop analysis purposes, in reality companies do not always cover negative FCF like this. If that's for couple of years for example they might be able to fund that shortfall with existing cash balance before looking at capital injections etc.
for the purposes of this exercise, if i don't assume equity injections or use RCF draw, do you think using cumulative FCF would be a good gauge? i think just having a negative cum FCF signals that one needs more capital (whether that's equity or a RCF draw), but when cum FCF is positive, i figure it's time for a business that did not have a starting cash balance to start paying a portion of that for the sweep. that's an good assumption?
It's just a bit difficult to defend I think. If you have no starting cash balance (which is not correct btw, you should at least show a min. cash balance) and you get negative FCF for a year then cash balance turns negative in BS which cannot be the case. Also, if you wait for cum FCF to turn positive that means you may have cash generated in a given year which is not used for anything until the business get cum FCF positive. So I suggest you just model a revolver.
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