Energy / power modeling WTF

Why is it so damn complicated my head hurts i guess maybe I’m stupid but if this is what modeling is like in other groups maybe I’m just too dumb for banking 😢 got a summer project where I have to present my model and I am prolly just gonna tell them I won’t present it ☠️

19 Comments
 

Associate 1 in PE - LBOs

It's a lot harder than other groups IMO. Run to consumer or something now if you can

For sure

 

Other groups just aren't smart enough to understand rate base and tax equity like us

 

You’ll learn in time. I’ve worked in the industry now for like 3 years, and it honestly took a while, but you’ll eventually get it.

I find it easy to think about projects from an unstructured basis first — i.e., returns before applying debt and/or tax equity (if renewables). So, first you want to think about how much cash a project produces from its contract structure (utility PPA, corporate renewable VPPA, gas rolling agreement, etc). Then, think about ongoing costs (O&M, major maintenance, property taxes, lease, etc) to quickly get to EBITDA. Then, you can think about the post-contract / merchant assumption (likely just a merchant energy curve, capacity curve, etc) to get your post-contract cashflows.

Once you have a good idea on the unstructured cashflows and the viability of them — i.e., how much you’d either pay for an operating project or how much you’d develop it for, then you can consider the structured economics with the addition of debt and tax equity (if renewable)

All of this to say — it’s complicated and takes time, but try to understand the unstructured cashflows first before confusing yourself with debt and tax equity

 
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