I thought it might be fun to get a little friendly wager going here on WSO for what is undoubtedly going to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest IPO of 2012. Of course I'm referring to Facebook. Who do you guys think is going to get the plum lead underwriter spot, Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley?
If the deal prices where it's expected to, the lead underwriter is looking at pocketing over $200 million in fees. But that's not all. The bragging rights will be staggering (assuming the IPO doesn't crater on Day One). The article I linked to above brings up some pretty good points about who Zuck and the crew might be leaning towards.
Morgan Stanley had the hot hand in the IPO market over the past 12 months and was the lead underwriter for Facebook remora Zynga. Also, they're not Goldman. What I mean by that is that Goldman turned a Facebook private placement into a PR nightmare early in 2011, and Zuckerberg strikes me as the kind of guy who is mindful of the company he keeps. Perception is everything these days, after all.
Of course, it all comes down to money. Whichever shop convinces Zuckerberg that the IPO will perform better will get the nod. And perhaps Goldman has the edge there - they've already got a bunch of in-house institutional buy-in. But when you really look at it, is Facebook going to be a tough sell? I'm pretty sure
could book the whole deal.So who is the better choice for Facebook? I think as sensitive as they are to bad PR in the wake of their many privacy violations, they have to go with Morgan Stanley. But that's just me. Who do you guys think wins the lead underwriter slot and why?
Morgan Stanley. The exact reasons you mentioned. - PR scandal, the foul cloud stinking up the room they shared with GS - Morgan absolutely killing the tech IPO game in 2011
MS
Morgan Stanley. Prestigious sounding WASPish name.
Goldman Sachs? Jewish whatever?
is Zuckerberg Jewish as well? Either way I think its MS for concrete reasons
Doesn't mean anything. I am Asian, and I would never use a bank with a Asian name. "Morgan Stanley" oozes prestige.
10:1 Qatalyst (Wishful thinking on my part) 7:1 GS 5:2 MS
My money's on GS.
Zuck himself has been involved in numerous PR scandles, so you count really rule out that GS angle, kinda like a Darth Maul and Lord Sidious thing goin there.
GS.
I'm willing to wager an SB on this, if anyone is interested.
My money is on GS.
I too think Morgan Stanley will get this deal, ...
DST is a Goldman alum heavy shop. Together GS and DST control ~14% of FB...that alone may sway the favor to GS.
Bank of China :p
Bank of China :p
Considering that GS raised $1 billion for FB last year, chances are that they will lead the IPO although they've been some articles about FB looking at going without the underwriters and doing what GOOG did when it went public..
Probably UBS
GS Elevator, 3 hours ago:
GS
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