Biopharma. Got the interview out of nowhere. Prepping frantically.

 
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Modeling in biotech is all probability of success weighted SOTP and DCF, so be comfortable talking about that. Revenue builds are market models with a patient build and average selling price.

Drug will get developed/approved and eventually lose exclusivity after a certain # of years, so need to constantly derisking revenue forecast by adding on to the pipeline through R&D, acquisitions, or commercialization partnerships.

Some trends: large pharma has lots of cash right now to be acquisitive and buy down SMID names whos valuation is getting pushed down lately.

All of this should be a good starting point, can’t imagine you get asked anything too in-depth.

 

Some things for you to think about:

What are key aspects to focus on to assess a drug?

MOA, modality, development stage, indication

Find the DB “pharmaceuticals for beginner” if uou have access to research - it’s from 2012 but will give you good overview of drug development process

There is a cohen report on the fda approval process too - recently updated

How to think about development timelines, PTRS, peak sales, typical cost ratios

When do companies get bought? What do buyers wait to see before pressing the button?

Who are the buyers?

How do they assess a project? (Risk adjusted vs non adjusted, IRR + NPV, payback, value share…)

If you google “biotech caluation model xls” you’ll find a sample model from BIWS on Jazz. Worth taking a look at

 
pipole4

Some things for you to think about:

What are key aspects to focus on to assess a drug?

MOA, modality, development stage, indication

Find the DB “pharmaceuticals for beginner” if uou have access to research - it’s from 2012 but will give you good overview of drug development process

There is a cohen report on the fda approval process too - recently updated

How to think about development timelines, PTRS, peak sales, typical cost ratios

When do companies get bought? What do buyers wait to see before pressing the button?

Who are the buyers?

How do they assess a project? (Risk adjusted vs non adjusted, IRR + NPV, payback, value share…)

If you google “biotech caluation model xls” you’ll find a sample model from BIWS on Jazz. Worth taking a look at

I wasn't able to find the BIWS model, any chance you could link me to it?

 

Types of M&A in biopharma are going to different. You will see a lot of deals with upfront + CVRs upon clinical/regulatory/commercial milestones. Also a lot of asset level licensing deals, where the client isn’t selling the entire company but only the commercial rights to a drug in a licensed territory (can be US/WW/ex-US…..etc) in exchange for an upfront + milestones + tiered royalty streams based on future sales of the product

 

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