How common is it to not get hired after this connection?

I applied to a position online and received an interview. I found out that the hiring manager that I'll be interviewing with graduated from the same MBA program almost a decade ago. It's a small MBA program so relatively close-knit and people try to help. In addition to all of this, I worked at companies in which he worked on past deals so I have direct industry experience. After the in-person interview that ended up being a casual conversation, I got dinged. I mean, I'm not weird or anything, talked articulately during my time with him and I didn't get any answers wrong since there were no technicals so I was disappointed. I thought I had the right background along with the fact that we share a very similar career and educational history including the same MBA program. I'm guessing most would've gotten hired in this situation right?