How many people actually get in to IB?

iTalkMoney

ExtelleronOnly the 1% get into IB, and if you don't get a summer offer your junior year, you are probably going to be unemployed for life.

Why is that?

Let me put it this way. First, let's look at the pool of jobs. I'm going to use GS as an example of a good "survivor" of the crisis. Their revenues in 2008 were 51BB. Revenues in 2011 were around 36.7BB (down 28%). That means that if they wanted to keep their rev/head at some consistent number, they should have laid off 28% of their workforce. Now, also keep in mind that ~4 big employers (ML, Lehman, Bear, and Wachovia) have vanished and the industry has gone through some major consolidation. Finally, COMPOUND to that the fact that Dodd Frank is likely going to increase the cost of doing business. Needless to say, the available pool of jobs has probably shrunk by more than 28%!

Now, let's look at the pool of labor. I'm sure that in 2008, when the market was hot and everyone was making their millions, bright-eyed young high-school students decided to get their econ degrees to play the S&T/IBD/hedge-fund lottery. That batch of students is JUST graduating this year... into probably one of the worst economic situations in the last 30 years (that won't likely improve for another 2-3). Not only that, but they will be competing with the scores of unemployed/underemployed experienced workers.

When the crisis first started, the obvious solution was to just limit the # of new hires (and let attrition take it's toll). Then, the banks started to actively lay off employees. Finally, the big salary caps and bonuses have come in place even for the highest performers. So yes, 1% is probably an accurate estimate.

Now, I'm not saying that getting a good, high-paying FO job is impossible. With enough networking and pure unadulterated hustle, you might make it. But you are definitely swimming upstream... and the current is mighty strong.