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I imagine it is going to exclusively be on a need basis going forward until we get through this. Maybe some of the bigger banks will try and pick up some of the MDs from SVB and CS, but I imagine that even with how slow the market has been it will be a second before we see any hiring ramp up again.
I agree. But if individual teams are free to add headcount when appropriate, perhaps hiring will recover faster than if groups have to wait for a firmwide freeze to end.
note I would not be shocked to see a *drastic* improvement in a matter of months. There’s nothing broken about the financial system like in 08. The feds will use every tool to prevent a bank run or a huge credit contraction. Community banks are a powerful political lobby.
Also it’s entirely possible Jerome has already raised too much, too soon. Inflation has trended down for months. today’s housing data suggests shelter costs are coming down too.
my point? Jerome could end up rapidly cutting rates in H2 2023, leading to a 2021-like orgy of deal activity after 18 months of winter.
No, I’m not on drugs.
I kinda agree. Don't think it'll be back to 2021 but with interest rates hikes expected to pause after this meeting with cuts priced in for June right now compared to no cuts until 2024 before the bank crisis, deal activity might come back faster and stronger than previously expected for the rest of the year.
Did I miss something? You got a source for this?
Do you ask for a source when people tell you their favorite color? I hope not lol. This is a prediction, not an assertion of fact…
in terms of stuff you’ve missed, i would start with the fed watch tool. It was predicting a target rate with a 3 handle by year end.
This is what I am seeing and the fed watch tool is still predicting another rate hike this year. I really don't think a 50-100 bps would drastically change the market.
Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/fed-likely-to-raise-rates-by-a-quarter-…
Two weeks ago the prediction was a 50bps hike next and a terminal rate around 575-600bps with no cuts until 2024. I think this is a significant change to the current expectation.
No, I agree drastically different than what we were seeing weeks ago, but to think Powell is going to cut rates drastically, its just not going to happen.
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