Interesting Modeling Question
I have a quick question for you Investment Banking Analyst and Associates that own models from top to bottom...
I have interesting questions for you since i working on scenario model that will prepare me for future model with a growth VC/PE fund.
My question is around milestone modeling - here is the scenario - VC fund makes a initial investment and will infuse additional capital or straight out acquire the company if certain milestones are met. Meeting revenue, unit or traffic milestones will trigger new purchase price points and increased investment opportunity in the organization- how would you model this into financial model with so many moving parts???????
any insight would be appreciated from you guys!
thanks...
You could do decision trees within your model and assign probabilities to each branch. Then model out cash flows for each, and discount back the NPVs of each node in the decision tree.
Basically, you model out each potential round (node in the tree) to get the overall expected IRR/ROI.
Could be an insanely complicated model or you could simplify it quite a bit. There's quite a few ways to do it within Excel, ranging from Monte Carlo, to discrete decision trees, to using the actual scenario analysis tool, to macros, etc.
And no, I will not do your work for you, don't PM me with your model.
Less is more. A super complicated Excel model isn't very useful as its a bitch to modify or even make sure its working properly.
I'd just have a few different "new money" scenarios that get triggered once such milestones are met. Not really that complicated.
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