Is it Dumb NOT to go into IB

Saw this post called "Tyranny of Optionality" and thought it was the opposite of what im feeling as an undergrad recruiting now. I'm not very interested IB/PE, etc, but it does seem like you pay a massive opportunity cost NOT going into these careers.

if you go to a top target, have a 3.9+ in a quant major, is it dumb not to follow the golden path (top IB/MF PE--> bschool/sm hf --> money)?

Compared to every other career where you are working out of undergrad, the IB/PE/HF golden path by far has the highest risk-adjusted comp, and really gives you a solid shot at seriously outsized comp if you play your cards right.

if you go into quant trading/research --> sure better wlb, but early visibility and higher chance of getting fired--even then, comp tops out to MD pay at the highest level. 

if you go into tech --> does not even have nearly the stability that it used to. tech does mass exodus of employees each year, and your upside is greatly reduced than finance.

if you go into startup --> lowest chance of success, lower quartile homeless outcome

if you go into macro/commodities --> have fun with drawdowns that are 2x as sharp as equities, where you could get fired for your pod being down 3-5% in a year. also have fun with allocators just wanting to throw money into market beta.

if you go into medicine/law/other white color careers --> probably get more stability but you lose lots of comp stability

IB/PE/HF seems like the easiest way, where you dont really need any difficult skills to acquire, to make generational wealth. To me its ridiculous that you could just ride levered tech beta or buy a bunch of 3-4x EBITDA laundromats, which seems much more easy than all the other alternatives, and many who enter the profession end up with 9+ figure comp without a seriously diffientiated skillset. 

Is it dumb to not take the opportunity to grind for an SA role?

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my guy just do what u like jesus think for yourself; risk and opportunity costs disappear as long as u pick one u enjoy

 

If you find a field you truly enjoy and can make a reasonable living, you’ve lost nothing.

If you’re going to use your degree to do any other job where you’re trying to maximize your income / your job is a means to an end, then yes I think it’s waste to not at least try and set your future career up by doing a few years in IB.

Also why not mention consulting? More broad / generalist, better WLB, and similar levels of optionality while you figure your shit out.

 

your model is based on inaccurate assumptions.

even if you were an expert on the nuances of the IB -> PE path, what makes you think you understand the nuances of all the other career paths you've listed to make such a claim. 

how can you claim to make a risk-adjusted bet, when you haven't even defined what risk is? What is the specific opportunity cost you're measuring against.

 

It's one thing if you are weighing IB versus going into a low-paying job... but quant work, tech, medicine etc are all so different than IB and still pay well enough that it really can't be your main factor. Someone who is good at those jobs will rise to the top, and they probably wouldn't be too happy in the very different day to day in IB (and vice versa)

At some point you have to stop optimizing for pay and start considering your skills and interests. There is good money to be made in all of those careers... but being good at your job and happy to go to work every day is really the most important thing or you're going to burn out

 

A lot of people overlook Dentistry as another career alternative.

My dentist friend works 20 hours per week (43 years old) and owns multiple sports car. At the same time, he invests and acquires multiple dental practices which nets him over 3 mil per annum. It is insanely profitable and comes with a very healthy WLB. Being a dentist is so broken because people don't take care of their teeth so unlimited recurring revenue

Notwithstanding the high debt of dental school, dentistry beats both IB and medicine. And you can work literally everywhere you want. Rural dental practices generates even higher revenue due to lack of competition. Based on your list, I would say quant definitely has a greater ceiling but you also need to exceptional in terms of math and programming skills. You don't need to be smart to become a dentist; only need to endure the excruciating pain of 4 years of dental school and the few early years of being an associate

 

The average pay for dentists is $160k (whole career average, not right out of school). That is not great after four years of $$$ school.

Sounds like he is more of a rollup business owner rather than actually just being a dentist - which is fine, but he's not making $3M solely from seeing his own patients. You could acquire a bunch of dental practices without being a dentist too. Actually a fairly common LMM PE industry.

 

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