Is the rise of China and India inevitable?
From AI to EVs, seems like China is racing ahead in key sectors. This, DESPITE government crackdown on big tech.
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Just a few days ago, President Xi convened a meeting with the leaders of big tech. After getting Xi'ed for years, looks like Jack Ma is back from banishment. The central government is now putting its full weight behind the tech sector. Support from the party now extends to the highest levels.
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You can tariff, you can ban, you can self-isolate, but it won't prevent other countries from buying Chinese goods (both developing countries + Europe, now that they can no longer count on the US). Take the UK's recent trade deal, for example.
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India's more of a mess, and it shocks me how underdeveloped the country still is. I still have some images seared into my brain from my visit. That said, Modi's made great strides, and it seems inevitable that India will rise too. If not in 10 years, then in 20 years or 30 years.
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It strikes me as inevitable, that the world will become more multi-polar.
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In the broader scheme of history, is the brief period of American hegemony coming to an end?
Based on the most insightful WSO discussions, the rise of China and India is a nuanced topic. Here's the breakdown:
China's Momentum:
India's Challenges and Potential:
The Shift to a Multi-Polar World:
In summary, while the rise of China and India seems likely, it’s not without obstacles. The global order is indeed shifting, but the pace and extent of this transformation will depend on how these nations address their internal challenges and navigate external pressures.
Sources: Africa in 2100: ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE or SHITHOLE?, Q&A: Management Consultant and Value Investor, Modi’s Mind is Made | The Daily Peel | 12/20/22, Recession Risk Realized | The Daily Peel | 7/29/22, 1st Year Macro HF Analyst: My Macro Framework
Agree you're right on India making good strides but still being a good 70-100 years behind becoming a fully MIC / semi-developed economy. The good thing for India is their demographics are so favorable, high fertility rates, a growing middle class (still pretty small) and a population with an average age of 28. China is being touted as the next Japan which is true and equally untrue at the same time. China and India clearly don't care about Paris Climate Agreements or reducing CO2 emissions (and why should they), which is why Trump's energy sec warned that the battle for AI will be run / indirectly linked to fossil fuel productivity for maintaining soaring energy demand for AI to develop. Lastly i think geopolitics could dictate the fortunes of both India / China. China is developing a strong grip in Africa via belt & road and is gaining ground in areas where the US / EU / UK is receding in (rightly or wrongly). China is even active in Eastern Europe and is quite influential in nations like Serbia for example, showing it's not just huge debt funding to loose-spending African nations that Beijing's influence is stemming to. India on the other hand has traditionally been more non-aligned and stayed out of foreign affairs, but the Biden admin had a vision for India to be a senior NATO / Western ally (the Quad with Japan, Aus and the UK) also showed that India would perhaps be a natural fit with it's own conscious of an assertive China on its border. Biden rolled out the red carpet for Modi (and MBS) which drew a lot of criticism given he had described both India and Saudi as illiberal democracies / human rights violators. Trump and Modi are obviosuly two strong men who get along together (Modi has already bowed to Trump over deportations) so US-Ind ties are likely to remain warm. But this doesn't stop the strong relationship india has with Russia, buying cheap Russian gas and refining it to export to the global oil markets. The Indian opposition is so crippled (although they overperformed in 2024) that one benefit is that BJP policy is likely to be consistent and predictable even after Modi eventually leaves office. The last thing is who benefits from and if Trump initiates tariffs, Trump has called India as a great offender and abuser in their own traditionally protectionist methods. If Modi ties the line with Trump, India may not be as badly affected. The last time Trump maintained tariffs, India, Vietnam and Mexico were the biggest winners from supply chains diverging from China. This time with Trump being much more aggressive on Mexico, it appears that the jury is still out on who can benefit given the MAGA appetite to tariff beyond China. For the China-Japan comparisons, it does seem that China is more cautious and prepared for state intervention (recently unveiled reforms last year)
I hear this type of argument all the time...that China is going to "steal our lunch". The CCP is absolutely and unequivocally fucked. Xi is losing his grip on the party because he is no longer delivering the economic growth he delivered a decade ago. The population is aging which is going to have a terrible impact on their workforce in a couple decades. In fact, Xi recently invited Jack Ma to a conference which showcases the shift from a focus on total security with pockets of economic influence leading to economic growth to a focus on the private sector. The whole BRICS currency they want to develop too is the most idiotic endeavor and it will not be a real currency competitor to the dollar.
India - I really only have one point to make here: when the roads are not made of dirt, and I can go on google maps anywhere in India and see a street or even a house not completely covered in trash, then maybe I will start to pay attention. I mean, people ride on the outside of trains....does that really sound like a rising superpower?
Tbf you could go to Detroit and see a house covered in trash
Your point on india is ridiculous. It's a country of 1.5B people. There's going to be trash and such around. The US has this issue as well with far less people go walk around NYC, New Orleans, Houston, Chicago, etc.
India also has roads, weird slight when again the US infrastructure is crumbling. I live in NY and many of the roads here are worse than the roads in India.
Lol....right
you're a delusional that has no high ground to compare the trash of London and/or New York to India. At the behest that you complain about racism (stop naming yourself Pathaan, you insecure SRK follower) have you ever looked at the pollution in the Ganges relative to humanity. Also Birmingham, lolocaust. Its so horrendous that Pathaans have destroyed western civilization on a laughable level through garbage.
China is not fucked in any way. From a mere industrial workforce angle they're ahead of Americans. Americans are obese, entitled, and rarely go the extra mile. Han Chinese the main ethnic group of China are workhorses and are rarely prone to all the ailments WASPS or whatever the main whites of USA are prone to.
China is so rich they have to devalue their currency and stop it from appreciating. The US hasn't had a trade surplus in decades. If you remove Wall Street, Entertainment, some consumer product companies and Big Tech USA has lost its niche in many places. Alstom, ABB defeated GE long ago. BYD is more relevant than Ford in Asia especially India. Let that sink in.
Dirt roads is a superficial comment. Do you think Twitter and Google care what 340 million americans think or 1 billion pajeets think . A click is a click. A like is a like.
I'd be fearful of China if they had capitalist principles. The CCP is going to go full on nationalism to take Taiwan / Philippines / parts of Japan which will spark a conflict / sanctions that reveal if they really are a superpower.
Nah no one is beating the US because the women here are hotter and the US has more history + prestige, so all the smartest people on the planet will come to the US and New York specifically. Culturally it's way better than China and India, so it doesn't really matter how rich the latter 2 get.
This is why the richest Indians and Chinese always come to US because they understand fundamentally the US is the best country in the world and that will be the case forever. The economy here is too robust and too big to fail despite what Republican or Democrat presidents do.
Will be interesting to see China eat up all the lunch that Trump just fed them by cutting USAID and all of our global influence. The US going into isolationism and tariffs lets China walk right in and fill the gap of the aid we offered.
People forget that USAID is not just US "AID" but "International Development". For the past 70 years the US has built the most complex relationships with countries all around the world and spearheading development. And as such when the countries begin to become players on the world stage for trade and such the US has already built a rapport and has a complex network existing in the nation. For example, USAID is less than .01% of US GDP but was responsible for 40% of the budget for Jordan. Even the most conservative presidents like Reagan continue to highlight the point that it is in Americas and the free worlds best interest to steer developing nations to a more capitalistic manner especially for how cheap we do it to. (This is completely ignoring all the humanitarian arguments for those MAGA's who dont care about that).
Bottomline: The US just destroyed 60 years of international progress, cooperation, and trust. China is licking its chops and will be ones to do so now - we just saw this last week in Africa. Beware
Yea China has deployed soft power effectively for years and is now going to be given carte blanche to go further. Especially since many global south countries hate the US.
Im afraid your correct but its even worse than that. Im plagarizing this example but bear with me.
Essentially the US is now operating like a "Mafia" with orange man at the helm. It is as if lets say I begin to offer you free electric services to your house as you are extremely poor but also I benefit from mutual cooperation and shared ideals down the line. Now imagine I go to your house and demand ransom after providing the service for such a long time, you may pay the ransom once but eventually your going to switch providers and NEVER go back to the USA as a possible partner given its shown to be unrealiable.
In the eyes of China, you now have a USA who is treating its enemies like its friends, and friends like its enemies. Destroying of all its global influence and relations, going to the Munich Security conference and spewing Russian propaganda and now you can provide the same services that the US was providing and be seen as a reliable partner while MAGA's back home think America is becoming "great". Truly a swindle and will be talked about in decades from now.
Historically India and China have been major players on the world stage. Even more so than Europe frankly. It's just the world going back to equilibrium so to speak. The US hegemony historically hasn't lasted long. The US wasn't a serious world power until the Spanish American War in the late 1800s and became the global super power in 1945 when it was the only major country that wasn't blown into oblivion. The US' greatest strength has always been its location and wide land. It's extremely far from most countries (so we can't really be attacked) and there's so much land we can manufacture here easily, get resources, have many population centers, etc. Too many people have bought into American exceptionalism when the country is number one due to it being too far to be blown up. The US is for whatever reason giving up its global power. It has defunded USAID and says it's a fraud thus decimating soft power (an aspect of foreign policy that both China and India use a lot). And is shifting away from projecting hard power. We are antagonizing allies and it wouldn't be surprising if some start to move away from the US. The US is out of luck and cooked imho. The global south hates the US. From Iraq/Afghanistan wars (and constant meddling), the holier than thou finger wagging, and pseudo colonialism the US is not well positioned in the coming years to combat new threats. As more emerging economies come into play (like Vietnam) we will see them go to either India/China or play off both. Especially as the US becomes more erratic. It's a pathetic display and is endangering US global power (and the tenous situation domestically).
In regards to India bear in mind it's a country with 1.5 billion people in a country 1/3 the size of the US with extreme diversity (22 recognized languages) that had their resources stolen for years. The fact that the country can exist let alone rapidly rise and project power is amazing (see Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh for worse performing countries that should have had an easier time). The US has a lot more going for it but also has many domestic issues that a country with its GDP shouldn't have (like crumbling infrastructure, rampant police killings, gun crime, etc.)
Overall yea we are approaching a more multipolar world and idk if the US is ready for it.
You think emerging countries will line up to be under China after seeing the debt traps they have put on poor nations during the BRI? That's not to mention what happens in Taiwan and the South China Sea / Philippines.
India is interesting, especially with their younger population. But it is far-fetched to imagine them as an influential global policeman in the next 10-15 years, when they have millions still in poverty.
US has it's flaws but I'll take partnering with the most powerful military, 3rd highest population, best tech / financial sector, and balances of power.
As the US keeps antagonizing allies and cutting aid people will go elsewhere. US aid used to be mostly loans as well and IMF loans are considered borderline predatory which is why competitors have popped up. Also as the US antagonizes other countries and cancels aid pro US politicians in other countries get discredited (which happened in Iran when Trump ripped up the deal). The NYT just today wrote a story on how Nepal had a huge energy contract with the US that has been canceled. The pro US parts of Nepal fought hard for it for years and are now discredited.
You have a very naive view of the US most of the world doesn't view the US like that at all. The US just recently did a coup in Pakistan, it's not some mega freedom land or whatever.
India isn't trying to be a world policeman. It's a country with 1.5B people there is going to be a lot of poverty especially since many resources were stolen. The US has a poverty rate over 10% with no real excuse for this. That's the main point. The US is basically starting at third base and messing up constantly.
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