Slow Deal Flow this Year and will it affect recruiting?

Yes, banking FT spots open up either in one of two scenarios A) more juniors are needed, and B) someone turns down an offer (typically a case of someone going up-market opening up a singular spot or two. A) is more likely not happening and we have seen a decent bit of junior firing recently, including at UBS/CS and even more recently at BoFA. The expectations internally within most banks was that 2025 would significantly better than 2024; so far into the year at least for the US, that is patently false in transactional size and broader volume for M&A. Similarily, it seems SA classes are bigger than perhaps the level of deal flow as they were hired in anticipation of higher deal flow than is presently the case, would assume lower return rates this year than last (where expectations were low heading into 2024 SA recruiting). 

I would just focus on getting a return this summer, especially since I'm already at a BB. Unless you are in a super niche group like FIG/RE with no interest in the space and/or in like DCM/ECM, you should be able to recruit for most things if you want to exit from a BB seat and should be able to lateral down the line to a more prestigious shop if you'd like anyways.