The Truth About IB Headcount in 2021
Looking to get some solid and definitive answers on headcount in 2021 and internship conversion rates this summer.
It seems like everyone thinks significant cuts are coming and that IB revenue is getting slammed but I'm not sure either is true.
Anecdotally I've heard of many groups getting slammed right now(Not just Rx but coverage, DCM, convertibles, even M&A).
After taking a look at the facts (per WSJ IB Scorecard), current Q2 IB revenue (global) is $12.6bn, which is on pace to match Q2 2019's IB revenue of $19.8bn. (Note: Q2 2019 was the best quarter of the year) The slack from M&A is being picked up by DCM and ECM.
Do any current bankers have any insight on 2021 headcount and Summer 2020 retention rates for US BBs and EBs?
Bro how are we supposed to give you "definitive answers"? There are so many unknown variables here. Anyone telling you they can point to a specific retention rate is lying to you.
Hardo alert
Any word on how the deal flow has been at EBs like Moelis, Evercore, PWP, CVP, etc? Do people think they’re gonna reduce headcount for incoming FT class due to covid?
Currently at a BB potentially looking to lateral over to EB FT so wondering if the prospects are dim there. Any advice helps.
Moelis here - not lacking on deal flow between a ton of restructuring and cap markets work (PIPEs, rescue financing, etc.) - M&A is variable based on industry conditions. Headcount expected to be flat, but take with a grain of salt because of how variable the industry is.
Broadly would not worry about any of the EB's you mentioned.
I'd expect a material decline in IB revenue in 2H20.
Company's frontloaded DCM/leveraged loans/regular loans in the last third of 1Q and the first half of 2Q to preserve liquidity. Banks floated the F1000 when all the CP markets dried up and got big fees and wide spreads for doing so.
To your point about M&A, M&A volume might pick up but dollar volume will likely be down because mega-mergers aren't super well received optically by regulators in recessions and share exchanges are less profitable than financing packages.
The IG corporates (and others) that the BB's and EBs bank have capital structures to maintain and a lower margin for error on execution than they did before because they're levered to the teeth. It makes more sense for management to focus internally than to do anything transformational
As far as headcount, idk. I haven't heard of too many cuts on analyst/associate levels. VP's are the targets right now. My assumption is that junior headcount will be be pretty normal with some people transferred to Rx/workout groups internally. Bonuses on the other hand will be hammered.
Agree with all of your points outside of #1. There was very limited activity in the loan market from 2nd week of March until mid/late April.
The loans getting done in that timeframe were only for well capitalized businesses (taking adv. of low rates) and emergency liquidity. Our Lev Fin team was busy af, but it was a lot of prospecting activity vs deals getting done.
Our firm put a ton of m&a deals on hold. We are starting to see y/y weekly activity return to normal with our clients so I’m optimistic that some of these will close towards the end of 2020. There’s a massive amount of dry powder that’s just sitting on the sideline. Multiple will compress, but I still think m&a activity will return to normal in 2H2020 given the pent up demand