it was announced today that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%. That, and the dija is highest ever, is it safe to say the economy is back? Will ibanking opportunities ever reach pre-2008 levels again?
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I'm skeptical for 5 reasons...1) the labor participation rate is a nightmare. 2) Consumers are still de-leveraging 3) our poverty stats are through the roof 4) 80 million babyboomers are set to retire over the next decade and will be an albatross around the neck of the taxpayer 5) I wonder about how much of these rallies have been fueled by all of those QE injections-which tend to drive up asset prices (not that there aren't some great values to be had-but i wonder)
The falling unemployment rate does not necessarily indicate a growing (or stable) economy. Neither does record highs on the stock market. I certainly don't think the economy is back to where it was in 2005-2007 (and why should it be since a fair portion of that was fueled by the housing bubble). I think overall the US is going through a large structural shift that still has many years to go before things begin to "normalize". Take for example today's labor statistics report. 236,000 jobs added seems like a pretty good number. But there's also a lot of numbers that should give anyone pause. 296,000 no longer in the labor force (putting the labor force participation rate at a 32 year low), 77,000 less full time workers, 102,000 more part time workers, and 340,000 more people working more than one job. That's hardly the rosy picture of a bustling economy.
The day I acknowledge our economy has recovered is when it's generating 300k in jobs (full-time, good paying jobs), unemployment is at or below 6%, and the Fed has removed all their manipulation from the underlying economy. Until then I'll choose to be skeptical.
Fuck me... I think we're going to see the biggest drop in the DOW / S&P since '08.
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