VP Dilemma: EB vs BB for Career Banking

I’m a VP at an EB. Hours are very manageable overall at this point (with the usual ebb and flow based on deals), and compensation is consistently at the very top of the street — it’s a relatively comfortable seat, and I know many would consider it enviable.

The challenge is that my sector is extremely niche/narrow (think a small part of the oil & gas supply chain) with very limited repeat high-quality deal flow. I’ve built solid execution reps on some complicated transactions, but the deals are highly non-repeatable and the long-term outlook for building a franchise in this vertical is extremely weak in my opinion. Even at the MD level, I’ve heard people acknowledge how difficult it is to generate consistent business here, which reinforces my concern about building a multi-decade banking career in this space.

I’m considering lateraling to a ‘mid’ bulge bracket (not GS etc) into a larger, somewhat related sector with stronger deal flow and more long-term career upside. My concerns are the trade-offs: meaningfully lower comp over time and likely much tougher hours, particularly as I ramp in the new space. I also may lose some time on the path to MD and need to reset my very strong reputation at my current firm. 

At this point in my career, would you make that move? Is the broader platform and potentially clearer MD path at a BB worth the cost, or should I stay put and bank the high comp (for now…)? I don’t see many people going from EBs to BBs, but it does seem like building a sustainable long-term banking career may be easier at a BB more generally due to the balance sheet / products. Would appreciate advice from people who are a bit more senior.  While moving internally is technically possible, it’s very political and risky so I have avoided that.