Is the Job Market ACTUALLY improving?
November report that came out weeks back said that employers added 169,000 jobs and there is sentiment that the job market is quite strong. However, tech is going through more rounds of massive layoffs and many companies are projecting for more in 2024. Similarly, on the small business side, it seems like a lot of small local businesses or chain businesses are having a hard time staying staffed. I know these are only two sides of the overall economy, but it feels weird that there are massive rounds of layoffs occurring in tech & finance (probably related to the interest rate environment, but stocks have been rallying over the last 3 months so idrk) while also having a lot of businesses with vacancies they can’t fill. Feels weird that despite a large tightening environment, unemployment stayed below 4%. Would love input from y’all
Would love to give a more concrete answer the but the truth is no one knows.
As you said, there’s some signs of an economic slump. However, there’s also good signs of a soft landing, look at the fed - Powell seems happy at the last meeting and they seem positioned to not hike rates further. Having inflation under control could mean good things for banks and dealmaking in general.
Two key factors:
1. Look at the composition of job gains. The economy doesn't consist of just tech, finance, and small consumer-facing businesses. Most of the job gains in the last month were in none of the places you're thinking about. The biggest gains were in government, leisure/hospitality, and private ed / health services (BLS). Notice that over a 3-month period, finance, business services, and information are down
2. Tech is structurally different than in the past. The bloated structure of Big Tech came to light with Twitter slashing headcount without dying instantly like so many in tech predicted. People realized that you don't need three shitty developers to do the work of one decent one. (Axios)
This is great thank you
If we exclude the public sector job adds, that eliminates a good portion of the jobs added. Does this tell us anything about how the private sector is handling the tightening period? Also curious on your take, but why would tech rally as hard as it has the last few months despite there being a lot of job cuts. Some of this is attributed to AI but most of it is just pure layoffs. Can we see this as a good thing that they are trimming fat, or is this more of cost cutting due to a year of tightening and potential to stay at non zero rates for the long term? Seems to me there’s a good chance of corrections in Jan/Feb
I heard anecdotally, healthcare services at least in NYC (private hospital / large health systems) recruiting is slightly down from past years but even in shitty economies like 2008, if you have an internal referral - getting a job within 3-6 months is very feasible at these places.
Tech started “trimming the fat” so to speak. Higher salaries (90-100k for junior roles + 20-30% bonus) for entry level, senior aimed at 150-200k + sizable bonuses. Companies are upping their talent.
Most of the engineers I worked with had great credentials, but poor performers. I wouldn’t be discouraged or follow stuff on tech forums since it’s just people complaining. If you’re interested in the field, pursue it but also do well/focus.
Brutally high number of applicants though. Just got a tech rejection a hour ago lol.
Yes. It is actually improving.
Any particular industry / space you're seeing an increase?
December report came with higher job adds but again mostly in public sector and health sector
Ofc the labor market is shit unless you want to go into unproductive public sector jobs that are run by buffoons and have been created by our retarded government to prop up the unemployment and jobs figures to avoid a technical recession on paper. Sorry to all who have to recruit full-time in Joe Biden’s America.
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