Apple price after estimates?

155ish

2.  Maybe three.

Awesome thread.

After hours looks more like high 130's.

Stock is tanking after hours (surprising me personally).

Anyone else think this is a good time to buy at a nice discount?

haha i love life right now. I put 1/3 of my money into 6 month apple $150 puts when apple stock was at $198.  I still wouldn't buy it, Apple products are all extremely discretionary which isn't good if we are going into a recession. They don't have any new products/ideas to substain enough growth to even warrant the current price/earning ratio, and the ipod/itunes fad is just about over. I seriously don't understand people in equity research...do they just extend the stock gain curve one year, they were all saying 250 before the winter which was BEYOND absurd.

Apple wants to do a bond issue, or raise primary capital, or make an acquisition. Do they give the mandate to one of their cheerleaders or the house that just downgraded them with a 50% downside price target?

I read sell-side research - a lot of it - but I always ignore the recommendation and the price target.

Actually, I don't think the negative sentiment is a product of the belief that the Ipod "fad" is over, or that Apple has run out of new products or ideas. While consumer spending will clearly have some impact, I don't see why it should be any more pronounced for Apple than it will be for other consumer electronics businesses.

Apple's top-line guidance was largely in line with consensus figures on the street - it was Apple's bottom-line forecast (EPS) that triggered the after-hours sell off.

A large part of the value that research analysts add is 1) access to management for buy-side firms and 2) quantifying the qualitative aspects of the company.  John Mack is right.  Target prices are bogus.  Great analysts give a new perspective on a company, but the target price is worthless.

Im curious regarding how much 1/3 of your money is...

Not that I want to know how wealthy you are, nor do I care, I'm just interested to see how much you would commit to one trade.

If its 1/3 of $1-2k its wayyyy different than 1/3 of say $100k+

Either way congrats, vacation here you come!

Cheap cruises out of miami in may

im poor, but i threw a little over $800 into it, $400 of which was on leverage haha. Have the rest in AMD, chump change i know :(

no worries dude I'm broke too, college will do that to ya.

Nice work though!

On buying a company's stock right around earnings and trying to do short-term trades, I just don't do it anymore.  Actually I can't even do it anymore because of all the compliance restrictions etc. in banking.

So if you guys want to try some arbitrage and pretend to be day traders with AAPL and anything else, have fun while you can. :)

$810 ->2,660.00 I have to hold it close to a month more since I work in a finance company though, I'm mad worried. I have to hope the economy continues to suck...in which case I won't find a job haha. I bought it well before earnings Dosk :).

You could always hedge it if you are really worried, I'm not gonna pretend to give advice because as much as I have my own opinion I don't have a damn clue what's going to happen.

in order to hedge id atcually have to create an option , which I can't do with Scottrade :-\

It doesnt have to be a perfect hedge you could go long the stock or buy some out of the money call options to lock in some profits and limit some of the potential downside for you if the stock rises, though obviously that would require cash and would limit your future profits.

It hit bottom at around 126 I think back up to around 140 now.

SM talk to compliance about this.  You may be able to exit out of it.  Explain the situation to them.

I did , they said I can get out if I want to give the money to charity.

matty200, that'd be such a bad hedge its not even worth doing.  If I go long at this point, for every one percent apple moves up, I lose 10 of my option value (of course this changes as I deviate from strike price/time changes). A call option wiould basically be a straddle.

Purchasing a call option would effectively change your bet on the security (i.e., your upside would come from both further downward swings and from big upswings, which isn't consistent with your initial investment thesis that Apple was overpriced at $200). And as you know, any call option with a strike north of $150 leaves your position naked.

Another option would be to sell a put with a strike less than $150. Of course, if Apple's stock ends up south of the strike on your sold put you will only get upside for the difference between $150 and the strike price. In exchange, however, you receive an upfront payment for the value of your sold put, which essentially locks in some level of profit. The tradeoff here is between how much profit you want to lock in versus how much you want to keep on the table for potential further depreciations in Apple's stock. In current form, your purchased puts are worthless if Apple's stock goes north of $150, and even by selling a put you run the same risk; however, by selling a put you lock in some minimum fixed level of profit (equal to the price you've sold puts at less the price you paid for the initial $150 puts), and you have potential upside from the spread between $150 and the strike on your sold puts.

I cant sell puts with Scottrade

i only have like 5-6 brokers I'm allowed to use :-\, working at a finance place sucksss

I internet at scottrade and they are not too hot with options, the company is probably one of the most conservative broker in the US. That is probably how they are able to offer you cheap trades :)

If you DO want to trade options, go with IBKR (interactivebrokers.com) you have to be 21 with them though; but they are dirt cheap. Scottrade is great if you don't trade like a madman.

Now this is a forum with a lot of bs running around, but you can trust me on that one. I've studied the discount brokerage industry in and out, and in again.

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Remember, you will always be a salesman, no matter how fancy your title is. - My ex girlfriend

F9, indefinite interns have to follow the compliance rules at where I work

Disjoint - Thanks, but they only let us use a handful of brokers.