Early Retirement
I'm pretty burned out from work so thinking of retiring this next year. I'm in my mid/late 30's and have enough saved up from work and getting lucky on some investments. I'm single and I don't spend more than $100K so capital gains from my investments should cover my lifestyle (i.e., FIRE). Wondering if there's others that are in a similar position or have retired recently and would be down to chat privately to exchange thoughts or bounce ideas off each other. I can't really talk to many people I know personally about this for various reasons. Feel free to msg here or DM me.
CompBanker
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Also think about tax annoyances that arise when you are not a W-2. You have to project out quarterly withholdings, which can become a cash flow nightmare when you cannot predict your capital gains/when you realize capital gains during a year.
You should read articles on the Trinity studies and make sure you have an understanding of the SWR. Honestly just read the whole Kitces early retirement blog math.
2.5-3.0% should be reasonable SWR in a typical VTI portfolio. You can afford an even higher SWR if you flex the spend down in recession years and can get a good first couple of years to avoid sequence of returns risk.
You've not given us any sense of this, so I can't speculate on whether you're ready or not, but hopefully this gives some parameters.
2.5% is ABSURDLY overkill. Just more spook to people to never get them to retire, when in fact it's far likelier their investments will balloon in retirement than anything else. Needing $3M banked to plan a 75k /yr retirement yea that's bullshit and just pushed to keep you ball and chained to a desk longer so you can pad your retirement portfolio with excess money that wealth managers can take a cut from
As you pointed out, those studies dont account for (nor are they designed to account for) the fact that you can vary your spend quite a bit. If retired then hopefully your house is paid off and kids moved out so many of your expenses are variable and in lean years you can spend quite a bit less on travel, food, etc. They also dont account for the growing number of opportunities to make money with side incomes/hustles (Uber, DoorDash, Etsy, Freelance, etc) that are much less demanding alternatives to a 9-5. Nor does it account for Social Security, which you shouldnt bank on but is also a buffer when you reach that age.
Now I will concede if you are trying to FIRE young or with children then you need to account for that and maybe hedge more conservative. But in reality you can 'retire' with closer to a 5% withdrawal rate than 2.5% especially if you are pretty nimble about this stuff
As for OP I disagree completely with the recommendation to trade your current job for a less stressful 9-5 type job, especially if you are single. If you are intelligent enough to be self made and in the spot you are at currently then your talents and time will frankly be wasted at a 9-5. I also believe it's healthy to always be working or producing, but doing something that you love. Take 2-3 years off and while you are off build a passion project that you can monetize (podcast, blog, ecommerce site) or something related to your interests (you like to boat and fish? Do fishing tours that people pay you for a few times a month). Test out different things and ways to make money while keeping overhead low. You can set up a far more enjoyable life then clocking in at some soul sucking F500
3% is the benchmark I use for indefinite endowment with no spending flexibility whatsoever. Trinity study has blow-ups if you withdraw 4%, so 4% is not safe enough.
With dynamic spend reduction for the first couple of years to manage sequence of returns, it helps a lot. I think we’re aligned on this one.
thinking about doing something similar. would need more info to give a more informed opinion (i.e. current net worth, investment breakdown, family planning/goals, location (and potential to geoarbitrage). happy to DM to exchange ideas
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