Future of the GOP
I've seen plenty of reports that talk about the GOP post-2020 elections. Assuming that Donald Trump loses this election, who will rise in the party and win the nomination in 2024?
The populist crowd of Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and Tom Cotton seem to all be interested in running for president.
The more moderate crowd of Nikki Haley, Dan Crenshaw, Rand Paul, Ben Sasse, and Tim Scott could all be contenders for the GOP nomination and would provide a better future for the GOP in the suburbs and in cities than the populists.
In a group of his own is Larry Hogan, the popular GOP governor from Maryland. He puts a rest to the social issues that the GOP is concerned with and is a fiscally responsible Republican. He polls really well with everyone in Maryland with over a 70% approval rating from Independents, Republicans, and Democrats.
My hope is that a Nikki Haley/ VP Tim Scott ticket would usher in a new era of the Republican Party and would likely do well against Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, since neither have much enthusiasm on their side.
Personally I hope Trump's kids try to run on the ticket for the next 20 years and split the populist vote, so that they burn the Republican party to the ground and we can re-build a reasonable center-right party from the rubble.
Ted Cruz is too unlikeable and won't be able to pull in the WWE crowd from rural America that is now part of the GOP base.
Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton scare me the most because they're both 100x smarter than Trump and would do a far better job of concealing their hard-right authoritarian actions under the guise of polite patriotism and populism.
If I had to choose two on this list to win the ticket, I'd vote Haley/Scott, though Haley's chumminess with Trump the last few years has been pretty gross.
Rand Paul, lol. One of the biggest hypocritical hacks in the Senate, and there are a lot of them.
The biggest question about the future of the GOP to me is: does the non college-educated rural white vote turnout for the GOP once Trump is off the ticket? Much of this demographic didn't vote prior to 2016, or was much more evenly split Dem/GOP. Note the drop in turnout in minority urban communities once Obama left office. If the rural white vote becomes once again dis-interested in politics, and the suburbs/cities refuse to forgive the GOP for giving us Trump, the party will be in the wilderness for a decade or two (my hope!)
The Republican Party is dead medium/long term at the national level except for the senate where it will hold some veto power ability for a couple more decades as well as the judiciary which it will be able to keep somewhat moderate because of the senate position.
The party will be strong from a local perspective (# of governorships etc). The key reason is the country has moved significantly to the left while the GOP is where it was 2 decades ago (which is a good thing, but not compatible). Demographic headwinds are too strong to overcome and the left has intertwined social and economic issues too closely for libertarian arguments (fiscally conservative socially liberal) to hold. Religion is less important than in was. GOP will have to completely rebuild itself and I can’t figure out what platform they can position while still being center right economy wise. The entire spectrum will shift to the left like in Europe
Nikki Haley is a future star, I hope she becomes president one day.
It's funny... I'm definitely not a lefty or a feminist, but probably 3 of my top 5 choices for president are women. Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobuchar. Moderate and sensible.
Also don't mind Ben Sasse or Greg Abbott
Gop won't go away.
Every year people in their 20s turn 30 and 30s turn 40 etc and a new conservative is born. This has been happening for generations
Latinos become increasingly conservative as they reach 2nd and 3rd generation status. The children and grandkids of current Latino democrat voters are likely to trend more like white voters as they become more americanized (Irish immigrants used to be a Democrat bloc for example...now thats changed)
Naive to think GOP is dead.
That used to be the case, but I’m not sure it is anymore. First time voters during the Obama era are now the first generation who has stayed liberal into their 30s. Younger generations are more diverse and less religious than ever before. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
The “diversity” angle isn’t really holding up anymore. This idea that the Democrat party is the only party for “minorities” is outdated and shifting. Trump isn’t even a moderate and he has gained the highest percent of black and Hispanic support among Republican presidential candidates. Biden and Harris both have somewhat questionable track records when dealing with minorities. On top of that more and more internationals who had family that went through communist/socialist regimes are denouncing the far left and shifting right. I saw an opinion piece on CNN about a Vietnamese refugee who was praising Trump for upholding the 2nd amendment and being hard on China. The “religious” angle is also far more nuanced. This is an opinion piece from the NYT (but it cites Pew and Gallup) and I think it’s a fairly interesting read . https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/29/opinion/america….
This is what you call a time period bias.
In vernacular, it means "past performance does not predict future performance". Case closed.
Maybe true, but aspirations have dramatically changed. People who were having kids in early 20s needed to buy a home, car, etc. People that age today are dicking around on TikTok. They could care less about capital gains, taxes, whatever else people used to consider when voting.
Source? This is false on all accounts.
Not dead but it's going to have to pivot in one of two directions: 1) center-right Haley/Romney or 2) populist Hawley/Cotton. Depends on how bad Biden schlongs Trump in the suburbs. If it's catastrophically bad, then I could see the RNC go the Haley route to win back the burbs. If it's not too bad and Trump loses due to low WWC turnout, then I could see them going down the Hawley route.
National demographics strongly favor the dems but that may not mean all that much. As long as the Supreme Court tilts republican and each gets two senators, the Republican Party will be influential. The way we pick senators does not make any sense to me. The senate does not reflect the will of the majority of the people.
Well - that's the whole point.
The house is designed to be 'representative' in proportion to state populations. Then the senate, as a check to the power that a given state could wield should it's population become too large, has equal representation via 2 senators per state. Just a series of checks and balances. Bear in mind we are not a true democracy and don't aspire to what the whims of the 'majority' of the people at any given point in time. It's all, generally, about balances of power and forcing, in my view, us as people and as states to work together to define what does or doesn't happen at the federal level.
Except, it’s not in balance. The Senate holds far more power than the House (namely, appointing judges) and thus enforces minority rule, a problem that will only be further exacerbated as our population condensed into cities and the same ten states.
I think this is one of the most succinct overviews of how democracy in America tends to work.
It was never supposed to. Read the federalist papers. The people’s will is the house alone. The rest is representative to varying degrees as the founders did not want tyranny of the majority. They also had other interests such as landowning interests, regional interests (eg maryland may have fewer people but why enter into a Union with New York if Maryland’s interests aren’t at some level equally articulated), and also wanted to ensure “groups” had representation (I.e. rural, farming, etc). Finally, there are certain rights intrinsic to being human that can’t be taken away by the will of the people.
edit: and this isn’t some fringe / corrupt structure something like half the world’s democracies have a bicameral legislature to slow popular passions and give regional voices weight eg the German Bundesrat, Canadian senate etc
I get how it was devised but it does not make sense today because for example, a state like Wyoming which has A population of 500,000 has has the same senate vote as a state like CA with 40,000,000 people. Yes, I do think the majority should have more of an influence on outcomes. To make matters worse, the house ( will of the people), has almost no influence over supreme court justices.
When were these papers written? A lot has changed since the late 1700s and it is time to overhaul the composition of the senate.
It's too early to tell who emerges, but the party is in a tough spot because of what it unleashed on itself when it went all-in for trump. To the extent that there are any "moderates' left in the party, they won't have the support. Kasich may run again, but he's considered a RINO, just like the consider Romney to be. Haley was in bed with trump, so can she really claim to be a "moderate", she'll be one of the front runners, but does she win?
Unfortunately, I think Cotton is in the best position to harness the anger and passion of the MAGA/Q-anon crowd. Crenshaw is just Cotton-light at this point, but maybe he'll emerge...he's certainly popular within the party. Rand Paul has no shot, but may run again. Cruz can't be ruled out.
In an nutshell, the next nominee is likely to appeal to MAGA, so that means Cotton, or maybe Cruz. Also, don't rule out Don Jr. running.
Kasich is terrible
I don't think Crensahw can run for president. He was born in the UK.
McEnany 2024
Uhhh...
She's the crazy and hot blonde that you'll regret dating.
I don't even know what her actual views are. She's just doing her job being the voice of the Trump administration.
1. Moderate Republican
2. Good at calling out the outright lies/bullshit in the media
3. Is a woman so they can't hit her with fake rape claims (ala. Kavanaugh)
The future of the Republican party needs to be somehow courting Latinos. There should be a place for staunch Roman Catholics within their platform.
Uhh... I'm sick of religion being part of politics.
There is this thing called the "separation between church and state" and the Founding Fathers specifically designed the Constitution to take account of that.
That just means people aren't creating and enforcing laws or making governance decisions based solely on religion. It's designed to prevent a priesthood or whatever religious body you choose from having unchallenged authoritarian power like the Catholic Church did back in old Europe. That would never happen now in the US anyway simply given how diverse the population has become and how non-religious people in general are in modern times. The idea of separation of church and state is not at odds with creating an open environment where people of a particular faith can feel welcome in the discussion. For the record, many of the core tenants of both the Declaration of Independence and our Constitution were derived from what at the time could be considered primarily Western Judeo-Christian values.
Separation of church and state was designed to prevent something like the Catholic Church or Church of England having a major stronghold over the government. Essentially it was another check and balance put in place. The GOP has a lot of religious denominations and backgrounds as part of its voting base, so there is no “state church” trying to take over the government. People are going to elect politicians who share their moral and religious views. This is true on both the left and the right.
The new SCOTUS nominee ACB is a religious Catholic last I checked, I recall Dems during her Federal appointment literally said that the "dogma" lives within her. From the Telemundo polls I've seen it looks like more latinos at least in FL and TX support Trump vs Biden going off that last "debate." Of the ones I know personally, the majority seem to align more with the Republican party and want nothing to do with the communist/collectivist rhetoric the DNC spouts since it's what many of them fled (Nicaragua, Cuba, Brazil). Plus they REALLY dislike illegal immigrants since they went through the proper process and worked their asses off as soon as they got here instead of looking for handouts.
The irony of this post is that one of the most conservative states in the most conservative region of the US (the Deep South) has a Republican, Hispanic, Roman Catholic governor.
For the sake of income taxes I hope they get it together...I can see dems sweeping house/senate/POTUS for rest of time and being 50%+ FIT not to mention getting smoked on cap gains if they get that stuff through.
For those of you who are going to freak out on me about Trump or whatever: I do not give a shit. I want to keep as much of my income as possible and do not really care who gets me there. Biden wants to lower taxes? Got my vote! Replace his name with whoever, don't care.
I think there's a lot of promise for the GOP in the coming years. Longstanding Democrat leadership has driven cities like LA, SF, NYC, Chicago, and Baltimore to new records in recent times with regards to homelessness, income inequality, and crime, all while pretending things are better than ever with their constant woke Olympics. Trump, while undoubtedly far from perfect, blew the traditional establishment doors off their hinges and has inspired a great new field of candidates.
My favorite up-and-comer is Kimberly Klacik out of Baltimore and while the odds of her flipping her district from Blue to Red aren't great, I like seeing Republicans actually starting to make an effort to campaign in these traditionally Blue-dominated areas. The biggest problems with any democratic system arise from complacency, when the politicians can just assume they'll win and don't have to bring anything to the table. It's better for everyone if politicians on both sides are kept on their toes and have to actually develop meaningful policy so they can't just rest on their laurels as the incumbent party.
I think a Cruz/Haley ticket might be the most likely and one of the most winnable tickets for the GOP. It's pretty hard to call the Hispanic guy and the indian woman racists, although the left will certainly try. Cruz would have won had it not been for trump in 2016, and now that Trump will be considered a failure by most republicans for not winning a second term, that gives Cruz a boost.
Fuck larry hogan btw. his popularity is declining in MD
-md resident
What's wrong with him? The media has been hyping him up as a great GOP Governor in a blue state.
I'd vote for Cruz in a heartbeat. Probably one of if not the the smartest Republican in the field right now imo
yeah he was my first choice over trump. They're pretty similar policy-wise except Cruz is a legitimate fiscal hawk. Plus, Cruz is just far more electable.
I lost all respect for Cruz after he got eviscerated by Trump in numerous personal attacks yet still licked Trump’s butt crack for the last 4 years in a bid to stay close to power. Spineless.
I still think Trump has a fair shot of winning. The Dems are unable to corner him on economic policies, Middle East, China, law and order, minority policies, etc. because he beats Biden on all of these aspects. They’ve rolled the dice and decided to focus on COVId only. I think it’s a bit less obvious where Trump’s role is. Certainly he could have worn a mask far more times, but to say he was the sole cause of 200,000 deaths (a number that is in itself controversial ) is stupid for a party that usually has a higher percent of highly educated people. Anybody knows that their state and local governments played a huge role in setting Covid laws and regulations. Another thing is I feel is that Trump appeals to emotions extremely well. The reality is that people see Trump fighting Covid head on, making comments of encouragement , and pushing for a vaccine and it gives a certain hope of a return to normal that isn’t coming from Biden.
I can’t predict the future but I don’t think this post will age well. Painting a far too rosy picture of how Trump is currently doing with people outside of his hardcore base.
What kind of voters does the platform ''fiscally conservative/socially liberal'' hope to flip? Where are the Nikki Haley voters? It's a desert.
You will see the Brazilification of US politics. At a certain point a large chunk of those labeled under that non-sensical grouping of ''Hispanics'' will shift right, dump Democrats they no longer need, and push for someone like Bolsonaro. Then you will see fireworks.
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