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Even shitcoin now below 80k 😵💫
I have thought about it but I am too much of a chicken to short the market. There will be a bounce eventually. Bear markets have lots of sharply negative days but also some some sharply up days.
Same.
Cramer said there will be a black monday = buy signal
Cramer must not know about circuit breakers.
Vol will be off the charts tomorrow, who knows what will happen
Vix at 45, markets expecting a 13% move in the S&P over the next 30 days
Volatility is off the charts on a Sunday night
So far down 4% and up 4% in about 1/2 hour
S&P 500 futures opened lower by 5%.
Holy F
lol this moron is going to have wiped out 15 percent in 3 days. What an impressive display of stupidity
Del
Lutnick is hands down the dumbest person in the Cabinet. Complete tails to Bessent’s heads
Del
This is beyond fucked up. Literally advocating murder.
Spoken like someone who doesn’t remember 9/11, or whose family wasn’t proximate to it. I’m not happy with this either, but that’s just too far.
Watching Trump speak about deficits and surpluses. He clearly does not realize US consumers spend a lot of money on products.
Watching Bill Ackman try to tightrope in his tweet is hilarious. You supported this dumbass. Live with it.
Ackman has exposed himself as a deeply unserious man. He's begging for the Trump put now because he and his portfolio are fully exposed with just a small cash position. Never forget him going on CNBC during COVID and telling everyone the world was ending while being short the market.
It was the other way around man. He had $20-30M of calls irrc in the balls when he was crying on CNBC. Fucking psychopath
He's a total snake
So does anyone regret their vote yet? Some of us may get laid off or no bonus this year as a direct result
They’ll never admit it
the guy whose wife got detained by ICE does not regret voting republican
the father whose daughter died from measles still does not support vaccines
they'll never admit regretting their vote. especially the uneducated republicans, they'll go through as much mental gymnastics possible to not feel any regret. look at them blaming the current situation of stock market on biden, kamala, obama when they don't even understand what tariffs do.
Of course they don't. They think this is Biden's fault. Right @PEarbitrage ? lol
Bingo, its a personality cult. MAGA's live in a post truth era. Trump could personally pull up to their house sell it, take the proceeds and turn it into a NFT to sell to supporters in rural Alabama then rebuild the house and lease it to Vladimir Putin and theyd still not regret their vote.
Del
Best advice I’ve got is right here folks (see below).
Hang tight, see what happens. Hold what you have, and buy if you have the capital (the market always rebounds). Focus on Trump’s press conference with Netanyahu (around 1:00 PM I believe). They’re going to be discussing tariffs (Israel has already dropped all import duties on American goods): if we learn anything new about the administration’s policy, it’ll be there. Best case scenario, he announces that the reciprocal tariffs will be wiped out for any country which ends its tariffs (and other trade barriers) against American goods, as well as pledges to end currency manipulation.
Before anyone calls me a Trump Supporter I just want to make very clear that I am not. I’m an independent, who’s capable of thinking critically, and, knowing how anxious I am, and seeing how affected everyone here is (to the point of threatening violence), just wanted to something constructive to try and help. Best of luck to all of you and yours.
Tariffs are only one aspect of the problems we have right now. Trump has alienated our allies, Wall Street, minorities, the judiciary, as well as anyone who believes in modern free trade. He has created a mostly dysfunctional executive branch comprised of loyalists.
Tariffs are only one of our problems at the moment. We have lost the confidence of our allies across the world as well as US consumers.
Biggest issue with market always rebounding is that for almost decades, it was predicated on the system's manager (government & its institutions) trying to restore it no matter what. This time you have one guy wreaking havoc on key fundamentals of post-World War 2 political and economic order.
Still fundamentally bullish on long-term, but I think it's never been as uncertain as it is now.
well, this guy will be replaced by a Democrat in 4 years who'll remove tariffs and reestablish trade. plus the prices will be like 50% higher (cause of tariffs), so even if businesses sell like 20% less goods, their valuations will be 30% higher (businesses probably won't drop prices much even after removed tariffs).
I know I’m anxious about this, and I can see a lot of you are too. Here’s my advice:
Before anyone accuses me of being a Trump supporter, I want to clarify that I’m an open-minded, critical thinking independent. I don’t claim to know everything, but from where I’m standing, this seems to be the most rational, constructive outlook heading into tomorrow. Best of luck to all of you and your loved ones.
faaaaaak
My opinion is the current market situation provides some good opportunities, but in the opposite direction.
At its core, my thesis is very simple - Trump highly values a green market and will work to reassure the market within the next two weeks through treasury actions/rhetoric/tariff reduction. These will be concentrated towards Canada and Mexico, who do not seem to be the primary targets of the tariff. If Trump’s tariffs have their intended effect of lowering foreign tariffs, Trump could also declare victory and reduce tariffs - the market could turn rapidly. Combined with VIX near all time highs, there is a long play here.
So this week I’m planning to short some puts, or at least play some long butterflies. Stocks that rely on USMCA such as $GOOS could be a good play.
“Don’t get emotional about stock.” If he uses this to negotiate fairer free trade (i.e. lowering of tariffs and other barriers on American exports, pledges to not manipulate currency), the market roars. Pray that’s the way this goes. For all of our sakes.
Do you even know the tariff rates that foreign countries charge on their imports from the US?
This is from July 2020. The President’s friend has been very consistent on this issue…
Does anyone have a list of tariffs that foreign countries charge their imports?
- Germany (EU):
- Cars: 10% duty + 19% VAT
- Electronics: 0-14% duty + 19% VAT
- Clothing: 12% duty + 19% VAT
- Food: 0-20% duty + 19% (or 7%) VAT
- Alcohol: 0-19% duty + 19% VAT + excise
- Machinery: 1.7-4.2% duty + 19% VAT
- China:
- Cars: 15-25% duty + 13% VAT
- Electronics: 0-20% duty + 13% VAT
- Clothing: 14-25% duty + 13% VAT
- Food: 10-35% duty + 13% VAT
- Alcohol: 10-65% duty + 13% VAT + consumption tax
- Machinery: 0-15% duty + 13% VAT
- Japan:
- Cars: 0% duty + 10% consumption tax
- Electronics: 0-4.9% duty + 10% tax
- Clothing: 8.4-12.5% duty + 10% tax
- Food: 0-30% duty (e.g., 15% for beef) + 10% tax
- Alcohol: 0-40% duty + 10% tax + liquor tax
- Machinery: 0-7.9% duty + 10% tax
- Brazil:
- Cars: 35% duty + 17-25% ICMS (state VAT) + 7.6% IPI (excise)
- Electronics: 20-35% duty + 17-25% ICMS + 10-15% IPI
- Clothing: 35% duty + 17-25% ICMS
- Food: 10-35% duty + 17-25% ICMS
- Alcohol: 20-35% duty + 17-25% ICMS + IPI
- Machinery: 14-20% duty + 17-25% ICMS
- India:
- Cars: 60-100% duty + 28% GST
- Electronics: 20-40% duty + 18% GST
- Clothing: 20% duty + 5-12% GST
- Food: 30-100% duty + 5-18% GST
- Alcohol: 150% duty + state-specific taxes
- Machinery: 7.5-25% duty + 18% GST
The stock market is largely an overpriced wild west environment anyway. Since everything has gone down, nothing has gone down relatively speaking. Great to see this shock to the system, hopefully it will last for a bit, it is a good thing.
Politics aside, as a bunch of people presumably still in the early to mid earning stages of our careers, why is everyone so upset over the market pulling back? Even with today's open, we're still only 20% off the highs (which were extremely high to begin with). A 30% pullback would be a great welcome for me as I want to load more into my retirement account. This obviously could be far from over so I'm not claiming that the 20% stops here and realize it's 20% in a very short period of time, but market did have a lot of steam to blow off. We're still not even close to a 2008 type pullback and that crash made a lot of senior folks in our industries very wealthy.
This is setting up to be one of the opportunities of our careers to have the market shaken up and be able to load in at more reasonable prices, especially for those that were still young during COVID and didn't have the coin to get in then. The market was already insanely over valued which just puts fuel on the fire now that we're actually getting real turbulence via the tariffs. Don't forget that we have midterms coming up in less than 2 years that could reduce his power, and at most we have 3.5 years left. Not to mention that he will probably pussy out eventually if things get too bad and we could wake up tomorrow to an announcement that the tariffs are greatly reduced or removed completely.
TLDR: I'm not making any political argument just seeing this as a much welcomed opportunity to get money into investments at much more reasonable prices. Every single time this has happened in history there's a reason to believe the world is ending and things will never go back to normal, yet we always find ourselves going higher and returning to normalcy.
There's no reason to expect we'll continue to clip 10% every year from here on out. The damage to the US reputation, dollar status as reserve currency, and global trade relationships might be irreparable. It could be like the 70s where markets are basically flat for a decade.
It is not irreparable unless Trump stays in office beyond his term, which is not possible axccording to the US constitution.
In 2008 people said the same things since the financial markets were going to completely collapse. In 2020 people said the same thing that we would take a decade to recover. Maybe this time it's true, but every time this happens people say the same thing and rarely have we actually had to wait a decade.
About a month ago, Jamie Dimon said, " get over the tariffs " Now, he is concerned about Tariffs?
I think this is a good sign.
And you believe what they say?
My portfolio was only down 0.11% today almost break even. Happy with that.
@Isaiah_53_5 💎🙌💎🙌💎 Inverse Cramer for the win.
Yay
Except in 00 peak and 08 peak it really did take 15 and 5 years respectively to cross the prior peak for a sustained period. Obviously you’d dollar cost average down with incremental investment but your point is wrong and it has taken decade in the past to recover so
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