Sans Trump and his legionaries, feels like most are ready for a slight contraction right before things consolidate. Markets are up despite the inverted yield curve, but things are almost certainly likely to get worse before they get better, right?
Trump goon Moore could barely even deny it:
They have 300 Ph.D. economists over at the Fed, but he has a better feel for the economy than the economists over at over at the Federal Reserve... This is short term pain for long term gain. China is a big problem … Everything they're doing whether it's stealing our intellectual property, whether it's closing off their market to us – Trump is fighting the good fight here. But yeah it's hurting the economy.
It would be better if investment slowed and returned to growth (classic V shaped recession) before serious bubbles form and we lose several years of productivity due to long-term balance sheet issues. Thoughts?
[OK, "welcoming" might be a strong word, but you know]
If you want a recession so that it undermines Trump's re-election chances, that's pretty sick and quite frankly, un-American. If you are arguing that we are overheated and that a correction may happen soon, that's an economic discussion worthy of having.
Tbh, I wouldn't want to undermine a sitting president unless he's doing something that would ultimately lead to his removal.
With that said, the China trade war is having an impact and it's the biggest factor contributing to fears of recession.
In terms of a potential recession itself, I'm too young to actually remember what a normal contraction is like, but the assumption I carry is, short of a major crisis, most will be fine.
I'm more concerned about a market where bubbles develop due to irrational exuberance or the Fed has to deal with major crisis and doesn't have the necessary tools in its toolbag.
Fair enough.
The China trade war is painful but necessary in my opinion. China has engaged in ruthless systematic non-military warfare against us: cheating on trade deals, cyber attacks, espionage, IP theft, lopsided trade agreements. I agree with Trump that the status quo is unacceptable, and short of actual war, this is probably the best arsenal to use against them. In terms of negative impact, China is currently getting crushed and are in far worse shape than we are. The key question is whether this will result in an overall global contraction and whether Xi will let his people suffer so he can wait out until the next administration (a Democrat POTUS will give into China).
I wouldn't want a recession specifically to undermine Trump's reelection chances, but we've been overdue a recession for a couple years, and Trump's fiscal and trade policies are the two edges of the same Damocles sword hanging over our heads. There is no reason whatsoever that we are running $1 trillion deficits at the end of the longest bull run in American history. We have almost no room to loosen monetary policy in the form of cutting rates when shit hits the fan, and as an old hat here, I assure you, it will eventually hit the fan.
I have been posting about China for 10 years on this site, so I'm with Trump on harsher China policies. They've been fucking us for years. But we're going about it all wrong. We needed to pressure them with all out allies at once and force them to capitulate on cyber crimes, IP theft, forced tech transfers and currency manipulation. But Trump can't play nice with our existing friends, so we're going it alone with tariffs. If I'm wrong and it ends up working out, I'll happily eat my words, but I obviously don't think it's going to go that way.
As a former currency trader, and one of the largest China dealers in the world at the time, I worry that China can't weaken its currency sufficiently. I think they're losing some of the control they used to have over the country's access to credit and can't manipulate their currency like they once did. To be clear, a decade ago, they were absolutely currency manipulators. Today, they don't seem to have the ability to manipulate the Yuan like they used to. That's more of a problem than you might think. In a command economy, losing command doesn't generally result in the rapid and ubiquitous adoption of capitalism and democracy--it tends to result in collapse. In China's case, that might not happen, but we don't know. We don't have a good comp in this case.
I hope we thread the needle and force China to come to the table without dipping into recession. But since we're on the path, we need to see it through at this point. If Trump blinks now after all his posturing because he's worried about a recession going into election season, then he's worthless as a leader. If you pick the fight for political purposes and then capitulate for political purposes, then you're just like every other politician--feckless.
A1 post, +1 SB
You're talking about collapse. Do the current activities of Trump and China lead to any path through a mild recession?
Update: Trump blinked. The latest rounds of tariffs pushed back to December 15th so voters don't notice their iPhone Christmas presents are more expensive. Now back to handing out socialist bailout payments to welfare queen farmers..
Eh. The Fed still has plenty of firepower in the form of QE in the event of a sudden downturn. The logic of increasing rates (despite shockingly low inflation) just so you can cut them again later seems...odd.
Which brings me to my next point. We talk far too much about business cycles like history must repeat itself and there's a rule that recessions must follow ~5 years of economic expansion. Why? The traditional economic relationships between growth, unemployment and inflation haven't proven very useful. I'll buy everyone's view if someone can give me a logical reason that the U.S. has had such low inflation (which, to me, points to even further capacity to cut rates and drive further growth).
Larry Summers has called most of this decade a period of secular stagnation - mediocre growth in part due to higher than necessary interest rates. I feel like he has a point.
This x100. I live in China and have been working here for 15 years. It's absolutely criminal (in every sense) what China has gotten away with.
When I came out here in 2003 they were begging to join WTO and promised to open up their markets. What they have done since in currency manipulation, IP theft, cybercrime and just outright bullying (seizing islands from SE Asia countries) is reprehensible.
I think the problem is that our existing friends are weak and/or incapable of doing anything of consequence when it comes to China. E.g. Germany is completely export-dependent, with China a huge piece of its export pie. Europe loves its cheap goods from China. SE Asia and India may want to play ball, but their power and influence are questionable.
Ill take recession over Trump any day of the week. A recession ends after less than a year. Trump is fucking over America and its future permanently.
whenever things get a little hairy in the market, my colleagues and I that were too young to invest after the 08 crisis and missed out on buying cheap homes, always laugh to each other that today we are "long cash and short housing"... not that I welcome it, but you know...
Honestly, just an assumption, you are trying to put options on the market and invest in CBOE VIX index. I hate to break it to you but it is extremely hard to be beat an incumbent. I don't agree with all of Trump's polices but his challengers need to step their game up. The democrats just keep arguing with each other.
Tell that to H. W. If you recall, despite having the success of Operation Desert Storm behind him, he lost his reelection bid to Clinton because of economic recession. I think the only way Trump loses is if the economy tanks.
Bill would be an exceptional candidate compared to what the dems have now. I don't they will defeat an incumbent without a very strong candidate.
Yep. It's called a "primary" and it happens all the time
This one made me laugh really hard.
I wouldn't call putting money on the VIX investing but to each his own! I think there's too much emphasis on employment numbers. It's a lagging indicator so pundits aren't paying enough attention to the right things.
I'm doing weekly rain dances and praying nightly for the fucking market to collapse. I graduated in 2014 and haven't seen the carnage yet. I just want mop up bloody, cheap assets and completely leverage my earthly, fiat existence to the tune of
Weekly rain dances? Rooting against the economy?
Holy shit, Elizabeth Warren is on WSO. Awesome.
I think you misunderstand his post. He's saying he wants the market to crash so he can leverage himself at low interest rates and buy shit on the lows.
That's absolutely not what Elizabeth Warren is about in any way. If anything, this man sounds like a ruthless capitalist awaiting his chance to take advantage of a drop in asset values to scoop them up on the cheap.
I'm guessing English isn't your first language, so I'll forgive you this time, Senor Gonzalez.
Rooting for a recession is an interesting way to exercise privilege.
I hope this gets the recognition it deserves lmao
.
Economic recession everyone loses
Downward market action is a zero sum game. Young people win, old people lose
Amen to that, brother.
Zerohedge probably is. So is Morgan Stanley. These folks are calling recessions every week since 2012
All joking aside, I don't think it possible at least in the near term... Mind NIRP/ZIRP and the Japanese stagnation drug that is spreading around worldwide markets
"But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance"
Everyone looks forward to the blood in the streets when a market crash comes along without realizing they might be the blood in the streets. Job loss is a very real possibility during recessions. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to us.
Aye, glad someone mentioned it. When things melt down a lot can go wrong. Picking up assets during a blood letting is obviously huge in retrospect, but in the middle of things it’s hard to say where the bottom is.
Reminds me of that scene in the Big Short with Brad Pitt where he brings down the hammer with the suicide statistics related to unemployment rising. People experience real hardship during economic recessions, not just their P.A. blowing up.
This. As much as I’d love to pick up assets on the cheap (and have), recessions have a real effect on real people. Let’s not miss the forest for the tree.
Dude the richer folks and holding companies are probably going to take the opportunity to buy discounted property as well. This won't be coming in as big as a surprise as the last recession and many are probably already preparing for a shopping spree. IN the long run those with more capital and assets will amass more capital and assets while the normal folk lose opportunities to purchase homes because of the competition from RE investors.
Ahhhh capitalism. Never fails to increase the wealth gap.
My thoughts are mixed. Personally, it's probably net neutral, but the highlights of my thoughts: - I'd never seek to undermine the President or what's best for the American people - I'm not convinced this is the best approach, but we 100% need to do something about China. At least Trump has the stones to try - they are a PROBLEM - I'm gaining more and more deferred equity as a part of my comp. It's going to suck when stock prices and earnings fall. - I was 2-3 years out of school in 08, so I didn't really benefit from it in any way. This time I have cash, if asset prices fall I will be buying real estate and stocks. I wouldn't mind picking up a firesale on a boat either. - Given that I have decades until retirement accumulating more shares through dollar-cost averaging in my portfolios will suit me well for the long run.
Those two things are not mutually inclusive. One can think that Donald Trump is doing real, permanent damage to some fundamental American institutions, and value that damage as more impactful than a transitory recession. Especially when you consider that we're weakening our ability to mitigate the impacts of said recession in order to help Mr. Trump retain what remains of his approval ratings.
Again, right approach or wrong, the Administration is currently taking the tack of "lets score political points where we can and leave the next Administration holding the bag". If you think Mr. Trump expects to win in 2020 you're as crazy as anyone who thought that about 2016. He doesn't know and doesn't care. He knows he can blame anything on Democrats and his supporters will buy it, and everyone else has long since realized he's a con man, so why does he care? He can line his pockets at the taxpayer's expense, just like the last 30 months, and just tell his supporters it's really Hillary's fault, and he'll skip off to the next thing.
TL;DR - It's absolutely possible to want to undermine a current President and be a patriot at the same time.
My points were meant to be fairly high-level and apolitical. I dont really take any issue with your thoughts, I just generally refrain from getting triggered on politics.
As someone who voted for Trump, I will readily admit he has been a terrible President. That said, if the Democrats continue putting all their eggs into the identity politics basket he will surely win again. Despite his ridiculous and divisive rhetoric, Trump intelligently focuses on the concerns of the immensely struggling American middle class that receives less and less benefits/services from the Federal government while paying higher taxes.
It is absolutely disgusting that all Democrats raised their hand to support unlimited full coverage of illegal immigrants health needs while thousands of American families are being forced to declare bankruptcy because of medical bills. It is ridiculous that the Democrats could even consider the Green New Deal without taking into the account the millions of Americans that provide for their family through working in the oil and gas, transportation, automobile, agriculture, or manufacturing sectors. It is the height of foolishness to double and triple down on heavily focusing on LGBTQ demands while this community represents only ~5% or so of the US (if that).
Our nation is $22.5 trillion in debt, which represents ~$183k per taxpayer. Our debt/GDP ratio is nearly double what it was 20 years ago and triple what it was 40 years ago. Our nation takes in $1.75 trillion in tax revenue while (officially) spending $4.4 trillion. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion and student loan debt is over $1.5 trillion. None of this can mathematically be paid off and no one knows what will happen, but it will not be good when America isforced to take account for its insane mismanagement.
Trump doesn't have the stones to do anything... He pulled back on China tariffs for optics... just to increase his chances come 2020. Pretty pathetic, not at all patriotic.
I look forward to the whole system collapsing, which is inevitable. America is completely broken at this point - further movement in this direction will eventually completely gut the middle class and make 90%+ of America debt slaves to a small elite ruling class which owns all of the property and resources (this has already happened in certain areas on the west coast and in the northeast).
Our value system has completely eroded, our national identity is dead, half of America is more concerned about illegal immigrants and their pets than their fellow countrymen, and the young people in this country worship false idols with no sense of morality. I see many parallels to both ancient Rome and Weimar Republic, but not sure what path we will take...
You need to watch less Fox News man.
You should read more history. Our system is unsustainable for a variety of reasons, and history tends to repeat itself.
a nation born stoic, dies epicurean
I happen to agree with this entirely fatalistic view. The problem with discussions on democracies and their collapse is that there have been so few and most are young. So the available data points are Rome and Weimar failed, US and France still doing well after 200+ years (despite unsustainable debts, lack of leadership, and a locust approach to strategic investments).
Probably the best system would be a democracy for 100 years interrupted by a 4 year elected dictatorship (to fix all the easy and obvious problems) and then back to democracy. Without an effective dictatorship every so often, democracies will naturally burn through the national treasure and leave nothing but a legacy of gluttony and ruin. It's the nature of man.
Yeah, it's not like Cromwell murdering between 20% and 80% of Irish Catholics when he became dictator was a problem.
Just raise the salary for political positions and competent people will run for office. Why would anyone in the right mind spend 2 years of their life every few years to get a job, only to have none of their promises go through. Imagine having a job, where the company you work for hired another team of the same size that pushes back on literally everything you want to do. If you're going to pay that person 200k/year to be constantly harassed and bothered by people on top of having to get everyone on board with your ideas, then competent people are either going to go through the revolving door to make money or find a better job.
If I can make 200k a year and keep a low profile I'm doing 10000x better than any politician making even 5x that amount. If Senate positions paid 3-10 million a year, then I think you'd get a completely different caliber of candidate. And let's get real about this - let's not pretend that Senators are "of the people" and should make median wage so they represent the little guy. They are among the most powerful people on the planet, and if they aren't compensated adequately they will either turn to corruption or other jobs in order to make money.
" 4 year elected dictatorship (to fix all the easy and obvious problems) and then back to democracy."
Is this how you think dictatorships work? The dictator gets elected for 4 years, act benevolently, then retires at the end of the term? Dude, Xi Jinping has just abolished term limits, jailed his political opponents and is just doing whatever the heck he wants. Same with every other dictator that has ever held the post.
Ah yes, nothing to drive home your point like Turning Point USA.
Seems like you watch too much Bill Maher.
I don't watch enough Billl Maher to understand the joke.
Where is this guy when you need him
In economic terms, a recession would make sense and I wouldn't make a huge fuss about it. However you have to consider that the usual bs will go down: bad business will be bailed out, the opportunities of many to rise from the bottom will be shattered or delayed by a decade, the usual suspects will get away with everything.
Combine that with the current political polarization. The last recession spawned Occupy Wall Street and the long wave of Bernie, Warren etc. Imagine being 200k in debt and entering a job market in recession. That's nasty. I have read some success stories here that are fascinating, however that's the survivor's bias. For each of them there's someone who bit the silver bullet.
Crisis =/= Recession
I get that. But markets are over-indebted as fuck. Models based on quarterly data don't take into account recessions every decade. Then instead of a market rebalancing itself you get a cascade of bankruptcies. If it wasn't for the mountain of debt over which the Western world sits on, I'd agree with you.
According to the "experts" 2008 was just a recession.
The shorts are always welcoming a recession within their forecasts...
The recession will probably be like the ones had in the early 90s or early 60s. Noticeable, to be sure, but also relatively quick and not world ending.
We aren't going to see a collapse of the financial system.
We didn't have a highly leveraged house of cards in the 60's and 90's. We didn't have cracks showing in the petrodollar, we didn't have global unrest and rampant war, we didn't have a FED that has zero ability to do anything. So no, this is nothing like the 60's and 90's.
If you work in distressed debt or restructuring you are probably desperate for a recession!
I know a lot of people in distress did a lot with oil & gas in 2016. So definitely, they are looking for the big one.
Ask if they need someone to do grunt work.
Rooting for a recession is tantamount to rooting for ppl to lose their livelihoods and in some cases their lives. Lots of ppl commit suicide when faced with the reality of losing everything.
Good.
Maybe a better question would be "how are you planning for a potential recession?" What are your backup plans - from a career and personal-savings standpoint? And if there's a pullback will you be in a good position to accumulate assets?
I'm no fan of Trump and I'm strongly opposed to his policies.
However, a recession will negatively effect millions of innocent people resulting in increases in unemployment, bankruptcies, divorces, suicides, crime, and all the other nasty problems that stem from economic downturns. A recession might cost Trump his presidency, but that's about it. He isn't going to be missing meals or worry about economic hardship that millions will face.
Hoping for a recession or trying to cause one for political gains is sick and twisted no matter who you support or oppose.
Forget about politics about the current situation as I can say. I don't care about politics if you right wing or left wing or progressive or conservative. At the end of the day, it is just plain wrong. It is understandable to dislike (hate) is a strong wrong. If people think that hundreds and hundreds should lose their jobs to get someone they like elected, that is wrong. In essence, asking for the downfall of the market to get your candidate elected is messed up. Average people investing in 401k and those with a decently size of money as $100,000 or $200,000 they saved their entire life don't deserve to be financially ruined.
The question that I have in all of this is whether we are due for a recession, or in fact a depression. Like a few posts have said here thus far, globally we kicked the can down the road post-GFC and many central banks have now spent close to all of their bullets left in the chamber. I feel like we are at an unprecedented point in economic history (with some aspects of it being somewhat similar to prior to the Great Depression).
What happens when things actually start to unravel, and how do we get out of the bottom?
Massive human misery is generally the way of the world.
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