Trump inherited a pretty strong economy. Sure inflation has been sticky but growth was strong. But ever since his mixed-messaging tariff spree on our allies and trading partners: consumer confidence down the gutter, consumer spending slowing, companies warning about weakening consumer, inflation expectations rising. His yesmen around him are afraid to give him any type of pushback out of fear of being immediately fired. Long way to go, but it seems that if we do have a recession it will be known as the Trumpcession.
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You're huffing keyboard cleaner if you genuinely believe this. And the "growth" was almost entirely driven by government spending i.e. it wasn't real.
This
can anyone provide support for negative private GDP? I don't doubt the govs been propping it up - would just love to read more.
May I ask... what's so wrong about the economy being supported by government spending? Ultimately that money supports either firms through contracts or goes into the pockets of consumers who will spend most of that money on goods and services from other businesses right... alternatively they could save that govt. cash and it would be lent out by banks, making credit easier right?
I understand that constant govt. spending at that level is unsustainable, but over the short run isn't there nothing unhealthy about it? Better than plunging the country into recession which I feel like is what will happen once Trump pulls the ~2T he wants to from the govt. spending. That would ultimately damage firms, lower production, and hurt the average joe... I think the real game plan would have been to slowly ease the govt. money in the economy - not to cut it off in such a short timespan.
Holy cow we got a Modern Monetary Theorist over here!
I... I don't understand how you could fail to see why the government being the sole driver of economic growth is a huge negative and invites massive tail risk. It forces the US to continually expand government powers, dilute economic forces from actually functioning they way they're supposed to, and guarantees corruption will rule the day by providing a permanent incentive for politicians to act in ways that while pro-business (for some companies anyway) are antithetical to the public's interest.
Ask yourself how does the government pay for said spending?
Government spending must be financed via:
Taxation could be direct or indirect (issuance of currency which dilutes USD value and is in effect a tax on USD holders).
Taxation (without spending) is removing potential consumption and investment from an economy.
Since US is in deficit, marginal spending today is directly leading to future reduced economic growth/consumption/investment.
What’s wrong with an economy supported by government spending?
1 govt spending is highly inefficient
2 the govt is spending way more than they actually have
Yes.
Quit with your copium and mental gymnastics. Tariffs has nothing to do with how the economy was running before. All you idiot trumpers keep touting that "a recession was inevitable without government spending," great...that has nothing to do with tariffs. Why this is such a difficult concept for you "Wall Street Financiers" to comprehend is beyond me.
Second, Trump has got to be one of, if not, the worst president America's ever had. This is not how to run a country. Nobody fucking knows what he has in store. Tariffs one day, no tariffs the next, then massive Liberation Tariff day...People want stability. In order to have stability you need predictability, which means, at the very least, if you are going to implement tariffs, give people an idea of what your plan is. But no...Trump has created a surprise "Liberation Day" to announce tariffs like it's a fucking surprise birthday party. If you think this is the way the US government and economy should be run, feel free to comment with a rebuttal and essentially self-proclaim that you are a retard.
You're arguing about something no one brought up. You're right, tariffs have nothing to do with this conversation. That doesn't make the statement that the economy has been in the shitter since Covid untrue. Just because the Fed & Federal govt. have been plugging holes like contractor making the decline smoother + there was a bounce back after Covid measures were loosened doesn't mean it was healthy.
The very concept of economic "stability" in a world that's becoming multi-polar, has multiple active wars, and technology like AI disintermediating key aspects of the very service-based economy the US has become reliant on - is a joke. The idea that the US implementing targeted tariffs in an attempt even out massive trade imbalances and create the incentives to bring certain industries to the US (while still remaining the least protectionist Western economy in terms of their value relative to GDP) is the sole driver of market instability is laughable. The only retard here is you. Here's your hat.
Your rhetorical question about "Wall Street Financiers" is well said. It is a difficult concept because most of them have never had to think critically about anything... they mostly have followed pre-planned tracks since high school, with help on standardized tests, coursework consisting of easy and mindless finance/econ stuff, developing boring interests and following crowd wisdom on how to network, prep for interviews, etc etc.
The days of genuinely intelligent/interesting people entering finance (such as Leon Black, Soros, Schwarzmann) is over... these people are all in science related stuff or startups. Most finance people in the early stages of their careers (large overlap with people who frequent this site) are nothing but highly paid strivers of above average, or even high, intelligence but with little to no creativity or ability to think freely.
That is all to say that it is unsurprising the replies to this thread are the way they are. Boring political regurgitations with no though paid to the utter stupidity (tariffs, scandals, low-IQ poorly educated officials) and nefariousness (degradation of the legal system, legitimization of religious fundamentalists, weaponization of the executive office against PRIVATE companies and actors) that characterize this administration. But, at least his children will get rich off crypto grifts!!
Wait what? Did you not pay attention in your macro class? Growth being driven by government spending is totally fine? In fact, it's one of the most important parts of ensuring growth. That's why there is constant debate over "growth budgets" in other countries.
A similar thing could be said about Trump’s first term, where there was, at the time, record breaking deficit spending that led to low unemployment.
Economy was great for the top 10% who own RE and stocks but we were propped up on government spending.
His current erratic nature is not helping anything, but I hope Bessent has a plan.
We are the top 10%. I don’t know about your family background, but most of us on this forum in “high finance” are in the 10%.
Maybe one day, but my parents have a mortgage and don't own stocks.
What? The financial economy is not the real economy. The real economy has already been in a recession since Covid.
How so?
can you point to some data to support this? Private GDP has been positive since shortly after covid.
It is not just Trump. The entire administration is completely dysfunctional and or incompetent. Tariffs will not bring back industries to the US. Companies are not going to want to pay US workers 10x what they can workers in the emerging markets. This idea that we take a service economy and turn it back into a manufacturing economy is absurd.
Next, his bullying of allies is likely is causing resentment and would likely have a substantially negative impact on tourism.
All is not bad, though. We have DEI and the transgender issue under control.
Excited to see what empty-headed left-wing drivel comes out this time
Ah, yes. Labelling people more Conservative than you are as "left-wing" because you don't have any semblance of an argument and want to control the narrative.
Brilliant strategy!
Why don’t you contribute to the conversation by actually answering the points instead of name calling? Or are you just a monkey who can only sling shit?
Elon Musk needs to discipline his bottom bitch better every time Trump talks the S&P tanks by 3%
The transgender issue is overblown.
If someone is 21+ they should be allowed to do whatever they want to their body.
The issue was underage transgender operations (21 years or younger/18 years or younger) which nobody I know agreed with.
The administration is a case of the "blind leading the blind". It's actually beyond incompetence. It's cluelessness and arrogance in a melting pot.
You can do anything with your body. Just don't A) force me to lie to my daughter and call you a women, B) stay out of my daugter's sports C) stop parading your degenerated body on the White House lawn.
None of this was challenged by mainstream society until they were forcing US to change what we did/said/believed to remain a part of society. I will not call a tranny a man if they are a woman and vice-versa. I will not applaud mental illness, and I will not support mental illness rebranded as empowerment.
Same shit will happen with feminism. Women have their cake now but are continuing to push this all too far. The open hatred of men by women is not sustainable. Women at companies are allowed to openly talk about how ALL men do X, Y, & Z and people eat it up. It's getting outrageous.
This is true, but he overblows manufacturing. I think we just need to build some of our own things that are critical for our services.
These things aren’t mutually exclusive.
It’s hard to know for certain what tariffs will do. Hyundai opened a new US plant this week ($5.8B investment), Eli Lilly announced a $27B US manufacturing investment investment in February, and TMSC announced plans to expand its US presence in March (committing $100B to an Arizona chip fabrication plant).
Can we say for sure that these are necessarily because of tariffs, the threat of tariffs, or wouldn’t have happened under a Harris administration?
No, we cannot say this conclusively. But it’s not as simple as “workers in other countries can be paid less, so tariffs won’t do anything.” The US is a major import market, and US policy has the power to force foreign producers into making accommodating decisions. Moreover, there is a real protective effect for businesses that are threatened by foreign government interventions (for example, Mexican fruit subsidies hurting our fruit industry).
Whilst I don’t like the uncertainty and back-and-forth ism, nor do I see tariffs as an ideal tool for negotiating refugee policy, I think it’s too soon to say that they won’t help keep money in the US.
"Hyundai opened a new US plant this week ($5.8B investment), Eli Lilly announced a $27B US manufacturing investment investment in February, and TMSC announced plans to expand its US presence in March (committing $100B to an Arizona chip fabrication plant)."
As you correctly point out, based on currently available information we can't say whether any of these moves are because of Trump's tariff threats. These initial moves just don't tell us anything unless we are able to see into the deliberations, which is something we can't do right now.
What will be the tell is what happens after the tariffs have been put in place and companies have had the time to actually respond in their decision making
It's already hitting tourism
Serous question where do you think markets go from here? Liberation day coming up. Might start buying the dip
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Strong economy? come on. everyone knew the market was bloated. Real americans were struggling due to an incompetent administration that just printed money and kicked the can down the line
A LOT of people have these same questions, including most republicans.
One thing I've noticed: everything trump touches....dies.
I thought that was the Clintons.
Major Questions:
These are just a morsel of the REAL issues he needs to address, while learning to be diplomatic with allies and adversaries so there is no major economic or military fallout. Either he's immature or clueless. Both are equally destructive. It takes one stupid person to undo the great work of many smart people. He looks to be that person.
His donors and picks for key positions are horrific. This country is in clear decline (IQ scores back that up) and he seems to be subservient to the 'foreign' lobbies who are clearly obsessed with Iran, over the American people.
It has to end. This is not "America First".
Can mods just ban this dude from OT? Multiple threads of him just randomly hijacking topics to start a jew-hating circle jerk where he's the only participant.
Edit: So he completely changed his original comment half of which was just raging about Jews and added a mountain of questions for cover. People saying this is inaccurate just go look at the cluster fuck comment chain below this + the Charlie Javice thread. I understand not liking Israel but dude takes it way too far, to the point of sounding like Nick Fuentes.
To address some of these other, actually valid points you've brought up:
The strategy to deal with inflation is literally the whole point of DOGE and tariffs. More government spending + less production capacity in the US = need to take on more debt = more money in the economy = inflation. Reduce the spending and increase domestic production to address the rest.
I don't disagree with the points about not sending Israel or any country in the middle east further aid, that is dumb.
He brings up the previous establishment candidates of the 21st century because it's they who've put us in these positions. When 20 of the last 24 years have been essentially unified in their policies to bleed America dry it's relevant to almost every discussion where you're going against the "norm" of what previous administrations tried to accomplish. The deflection is annoying, but it's hardly a mystery why it's there.
Nobody is fighting a nuclear war with Iran, that would imply they're a nuclear power which they're not. I would prefer there be next to no involvement with them in any capacity but the industrial military complex will always fight to have some sort of conflict on the docket to drive continual defense spending. He did unfortunately make some shitty cabinet picks on that front who inevitably will try and champion this issue when Iran is in reality a paper tiger.
Musk has 0 reign over economic matters unless you're admitting that the government's reckless spending was the key driver of the economy. The government being given free reign to pick winners/losers in the market is be a bigger problem than anything he can cause. If the goal is to try and fix the budget and reduce government spending (something Obama quite literally ran on & attempted in his first admin), he's doing fine work.
On the ICE matter, I think they should be arresting & deporting ones that shit talk the US too since they're only allowed to stay by the grace of the US government. The fact they're targeting literal terrorist sympathizers seems an ok place to start.
He's not talking about invading Greenland and conflict with Iran has been on the docket for over 50 years. Neither of those bear any consequence to getting Russia to stop bombing the fuck out of Ukraine. Something that could've been entirely avoided if the US and NATO had respected their agreement 30+ years ago to not continue expanding a military alliance eastward till it reached Russia's doorstep.
Canada and the EU deserve to be embarrassed. They've brought it on themselves for how they've behaved the last 20-odd years. As for taking Canada, Alberta already wants to leave them and the country is driving itself into the ground to the point it's gradually becoming an actual national security risk for the US. It's the big ask looking to lead into some sort of economic tradeoff (albeit I would personally support taking over Canada, the country only exists because the US has allowed it and the natural resources + trade routes would be a massive boon).
Can mods just ban THIS dude? He can't even model an LBO properly, seems to be against free speech, and is apparently unable to come up with cogent arguments, so deflects and implies I am a Nazi.
If Jew-hate implies asking substantive questions and presenting CLEAR FACTS, then so be it!
If you're so smart, kindly rebut the points. Go on, champ.
Edit: Why have you edited your comment 30 times, since my response? Not as confident as we seem?
The edgier topics I am bringing up, have been been a part of Western discourse literature for literally hundreds of years. Countless scholars have talked about these topics.
Instead of reading the user manual for Call of Duty, why don't you actually read a book by some of the illustrious scholars mentioned throughout this thread?
"Nick Fuentes" is hardly the first if he's bringing up these issues. Only since the era of mass censorship post WW II have these issues receded or been censored.
That time is now over. We are reverting to the mean.
Yeah, Russia is going to just let it's top ally in West Asia be attacked right? Ukraine and Iran are extremely connected. It is Iran that helped Russia win that war, with their drones, not to mention the US strategy was to entrench Russia in a war, so that it would give up support for Iran, in exchange for concessions in Ukraine. This was leaked, and has backfired. As usual, when Israeli interests dominate our policies.
China and Russia have already implied they will annex Ukraine and Taiwan, if Iran is attacked. China's response was bone-chilling, and completely under-reported by design.
Iran is a nuclear power and just because something has been brewing for 50 years doesn't make it the correct decision. They could build nukes any time by every IAEA report (which I read religiously), so they should be treated as such. The country has impressive capabilities, (surprised me).
Trump is clearly talking about invading Greenland and mentions he is not ruling out military action (READ): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/29/trump-greenland-military-force-denmark/82722287007/
Not a single student deserved to be deported. Trash-talking the US is absoutely fair game, (just as trash-talking any country is fair game). To arrest them for criticism is fascism and likely the result of Jewish overreach in our institutions.
Frankly, it's a waste of time to argue with you - you know absolutely nothing about geopolitics or economic policy. How are you even in PE? Clear decline in the talent pool and IQs on display.
Are you Israeli? You don't sound American to me. Genuinely.
You massively misunderstand DOGE. It's largely there to target stuff they don't like. And the Gov's biggest welfare queen is running it. And much like many Trump decisions Musk legally isn't even allowed to run it.
Look into the peoplethat ICE are taking it's just people that are criticizing Israel. Literally scooping them like Gestapo.
Russia invading Ukraine because of NATO expansion is pure Russian propaganda. Countries on the border of Russia want to join because Russia constantly antagonizes those countries. Like Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Russia also ignores what it signs which the Trump Admin likes to ignore for whatever reason.
Shut the fuck up retard
This topic is not about Jews or Israel. The topic is about the Trump administration and its impact on the economy. Do you have anything to contribute regarding how Trump policies will impact economic conditions?
Is this a joke?
But they want it. At the expense of the American people, and the American economy, which will pay for it.
That's why Israel is relevant in this discussion. Hope this helps. Not hard to figure out either.
@GourmetBonds, I disagree with most of your bullets.
I agree with your view on deportations of students (goodbye free speech). That's just frightening.
In general, I find DJT's uncritical support of Israel's interests a bit suspicious. Looks like there's some "quid pro quo" going on (compare to the crypto bro situation). It could still be beneficial to America, though. I don't know what the other side offered.
And I respect your views.
But Quid pro quo? Try blackmail. That's how "the other side" works. Epstein being case and point (he was an Israeli Mossad agent).
It's insufferable that nobody is addressing this clear issue that threatens the sovereignty of America, and anyone that brings it up is labeled as "anti-semitic".
Everything from the economy, to social fabric is brutally affected by it. You cannot isolate it and pretend it doesn't exist.
You are 100% right, particularly on the Israel question that everyone wants to avoid. WSO of all places is frankly going to give you hard time for it but it's shockingly true. Honestly, I'm embarrassed to admit, but I had no idea about all this until recently. I'm not going to act like a political genius because I was basic fool republican for so long. I am shocked what is happening now to the country and I contributed to this by voting for this conman. It's time we wake up.
@GourmetBonds this account is four hours old. We get it, you have a lot of free time on your hands so you create multiple profiles to boost your bullshit and make it appear like you’re more popular than you are, even though you probably were (and are) the kid who got picked on at school and always sat alone at lunch. How many times did your face get shoved down the toilet?
Based
A lot of these are valid points/questions but all the Jew stuff you stealth edited out is a really bad look and will instantly turn off a lot of people. Just unnecessary.
I just refined the message, adjusting for the passionate tone of the initial draft (typos, redundancies). There's still quite a bit of "Jew-stuff", as you crudely labeled it, and the core messaging remains pristine and untouched.
I stand by EVERY WORD, about the destructive nature of Jewish influence in US politics.
Those that question it now, will be remembered as intellectual champions. Those that cower in fear of questioning it, will be known as contributing to the eventual decline.
I choose to stand with truth.
Dude rages about Jews in every thread he's comments on in OT, gets called out, then edits his comments and calls the person who called him out an idiot lol
Voted “most helpful” after he conveniently edits out the following garbage. In-fucking credible.
Surprised this thread hasn’t been nuked by the mods yet.
They’ve been rendered toothless given the cultural paradigm shift against the libs
Are you actually ok with this? @GourmetBonds is literally peddling garbage that could have come from Goebbel’s mouth.
I mean I wouldn't say his comments in this thread have been that extreme (though he did stealth edit a lot it out of his original comment then bury it with a dozen other points). His stuff on the other JPM fraud chick's thread were definitely overkill though.
Edit: Nvm I was wrong, he is in fact saying some wild stuff
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