Is the jobs data the October surprise?
With unemployment unexpectedly taking a dip below 8%, i wonder if this is the october surprise that will permanently doom romney's election hopes. I was elated after romney's resounding debate victory, but now i'm worried that this jobs data will take away any momentum romney had and seal the deal for obama. The media is basically a cheerleader for Obama, so now the narrative will shift to how "awesome" this economy is and that Obama deserves credit for it.
Market seems to be stupid enough to like the job data today. The tank in unemployment rate was mainly due to a sharp increase in part-time jobs. This can be seasonal because of the harvest etc. I still think markets will self-correct next week when people start to sober up a little.
Such 'good' job data is certainly good news for Obama.
Aren't the numbers already adjusted for seasonal variation, or would what you're describing not be compensated for?
I mean the number is subject to revision down next month. Job data is NEVER accurate.
Giving ANY credence at all to the jobs data put out is just stupid. Using any formula other than:
Number of people in work / Total working-age population
Is just massaging the numbers to make things seem better than they are. You can make unemployment 0% if everyone out of work stops looking for work....
I agree with this. The rate dropped to 7.8% because it included those with part-time jobs. The payroll data showed 114,000 jobs being added while the household data showed 864,000 people entering the workforce.
Politically though it will be a huge boon for Obama, just as Romney is gaining momentum after his resounding debate victory.
1 - Unemployment "prints" at 7.8% 2 - People think "Yay! Obama is on the right track" 3 - Obama gets releected 4 - Unemployment gets revised upwards, nobody notices
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