Is this it for the Euro?

Oh man do we have an interesting week ahead of us.

While the Finnish citizenry rejoice and carouse over the True Finns landslide victory, I see three, very powerful and very influential people squirming in their seats; Merkel in Germany, Socrates in Portugal, and the Ben Bernank in the States.

For those who don’t know, the True Finns is the Finnish Nationalist Party, a populist, anti-immigration and European integration party hell bent on derailing the EU bailouts and drawing lines against southern European laziness.

"Here in the Nordic nations we draw a line between the decent, hard-working countries of the north, and the easy-going, relaxed southern states"

Totally what I said earlier.

Their victory obviously does not bode well for Merkel, she now stands to hear more from the growing anti-euro parties in Germany and as for Socrates, well he’s in for a doozy. As it stands, Finland cannot block the Portuguese bailout, but what they can do is delay it for months which could effectively destroy whatever’s left of Portugal’s finances.

Euro short anyone?

Well it’s not that easy apparently.

Yra Harris:
“If the TRUE FINNS win and the DOLLAR still fails to rally, it will be a signal that other factors are at work and the DOLLAR is suffering from some structural defects beyond the immediate radar screen.”

And I agree, the market has had the Fed under a microscope for months now so I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro’s current fall might lose its legs tomorrow.

Any of you guys see how this will play out?

I am seriously bearish on the Euro now but who isn’t dollar bearish as well?

Oh what a tangled world we live in. But you just got to love it.

Tomorrow should be a real fun day for FX.

 

Haven't heard of this, but thanks for sharing. I'd love to hear from someone who is bullish on the dollar long-term and what they think is going to sway the world to stop it from distancing itself from the USD. If anyone is still bullish that is.

" A recession is when other people lose their job, a depression is when you lose your job. "
 

Yea, dollar or euro both are pretty weak currencies. I don't see structural problem's with the dollar whereas the euro might not last long (but Germany does have lots of power, so i'm not sure what is Fin's real influence). However, besides these things, the dollar is backed by shit, which we all know isn't worth much. I think everyday is an exciting day in FX, nowadays.

Do what you want not what you can!
 

The dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, which is backed by the world's most powerful military. The world's reserve currency has always been the currency of the government with the world's most powerful military.

The Euro as a currency union does not work. Monetary union without fiscal union just cannot work. Either the monetary union falls apart or a fiscal union is established.

looking for that pick-me-up to power through an all-nighter?
 

Ohhh, big words, LIBOR.

I am paid in GBP, and as for investments in other currencies, I have turned them into GBP investments by buying pounds. Not that I am bullish on GBP/USD and GBP/EUR, but at least I'm not bearish.

 

That is what happens with populist parties, and its quite dumb taking into account that the monetary union with the weak countries helps in fact the economies of northern europe by weakening the currency.

Valor is of no service, chance rules all, and the bravest often fall by the hands of cowards. - Tacitus Dr. Nick Riviera: Hey, don't worry. You don't have to make up stories here. Save that for court!
 

Not sure why you are saying the True Fins won. They didn't? A more realistic outcome is they will be asked to form government with the conservatives and they will just pressure them to impose harder austerity on the southern nations. Or they will do nothing and the Portugal bailout will come out of the fund that was already approved.

 
Jorgé:
I am seriously bearish on the Euro now but who isn’t dollar bearish as well?

Agreed. Jorge EUR/USD isn't the only pair to trade. Pick another cross and get to work. Specific Portuguese equities also, if you want to stomp on something in a more direct fashion, much construction spending still driven by public sector --plenty of opportunities.

 

Everyone was talking about the euro going to zero as the troubles were mounting with Greece. Hasn't happened yet. Sure, there'll be volatility like there always is with currencies. Honestly, with the S&P news this morning I'm more worried about the USD than the euro.

Metal. Music. Life. www.headofmetal.com
 
Pfalzer:
Everyone was talking about the euro going to zero as the troubles were mounting with Greece. Hasn't happened yet. Sure, there'll be volatility like there always is with currencies. Honestly, with the S&P news this morning I'm more worried about the USD than the euro.

Life isn't that bad in Europe yet, wait till gets worse economically. They are doing right by cutting spending, but when people start feeling the slower growth and patience winds down...you will c what is wrong with the Euro! EU is fundamentally different from USA, even if there was an attempt to make it similar.

Do what you want not what you can!
 

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