Thoughts on Twitter?

Was wondering what you guys think about the whole Twitter fiasco going on now? Is Twitter over? Will it be rebuilt under different management? What social media will people use instead? Is this a shift in work culture where toxic work environments are no longer tolerated? Thanks for any input.

 

It seems early to say that Twitter is over. WHy would Elon Musk pay such a big amount to finish off the whole company? There's definitely something up his sleeve which we don't know.

 

Some people argue he was trying to get the purchase price down by backing out. After all his timing turned out to be terrible as he offered right before the tech contraction. Who knows though. Only time will tell to see how Twitter fares. 

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I'm only following it passively but I do check Twitter frequently.

All the moves made so far, esp. Twitter Blue, have been extremely badly thought out and just kind of haphazardly added to (or in the case of employees, taken away from) the platform. In the case of any other public company, new management would give it a couple months to come forward with a real strategy which has been thought out, run by investors/stakeholders, and researched. What we've actually seen is a new "strategy" ordered on a whim and live-tweeted by the CEO who changes his mind on what the platform should look like every 2 days. They even fired their communications team, which I guess Elon believes he doesn't need because his memes will suffice(?).

Speaking of which, Elon's current idea for twitter seems to be that of a public utility rather than a  social media business. Any first year economics student can tell you how that's meant to go in terms of being profitable. 

Will the platform die? I'd hope not. Twitter as a force in our society is an incredibly heavy hitter given its size. A world without it seems somewhat incomprehensible at this point and there should really be a way to make it profitable.

 

There are different types of leaders for different situations. Seems odd that his cult following thinks that despite an entire industry of PE existing that specializes in these types of acquisitions, and all of the experience required to break that industry, that somehow Musk, who has zero of that experience, can just… wake up and do it.

Musk is brilliant at getting to a production phase. His dictatorial style is perfect for avoiding feature creep, imho. I really can’t see how that translates to success in this type of M&A. How the layoffs were handled was a good example of this.

 
ResMan

I know former Tesla employees who privately say the same thing about that company. Musk makes extreme decisions, often on very short notice, that don't always look very rational and there is a lot of internal chaos as a result. And yet I see a lot of Teslas on the road these days. 

And there is a ton of news coming out that Tesla's upper management has basically evolved to protect the company from Mr Musk's decision making, a culture which doesn't exist at Twitter.

If this whole fiasco shows anything, it should be that Mr Musk may not be responsible for all that much of the success of Tesla (which is vastly overvalued anyway).  Intelligent businessmen don't piss away billions of dollars on a whim, no matter how wealthy.  Perhaps Tesla's success is in spite of Mr Musk and not because of him?

 

I don’t get the constant news on twitter on sites like Yahoo Finance. It’s not a public company anymore, so why are you continually bringing up the latest rumor from a source close to the matter?

 

It's still a massive platform that millions of people use every day. not to mention many many people in the finance world are following it because it's probably the most publicized and followed M&A deal of the year

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A lot of the important engineers are gone. I know somebody who worked at Twitter and he said he wouldn't be surprised if things start breaking with a surge in usage (Sunday World Cup for instance)

 As for social media alternatives? hard to say. There's Mastodon? I don't think it'll get mainstream adoption though. Twitter never did that well to begin 

 

Since Elon has become a politicized figure it’s hard to tell if the headlines about Twitter or legitimate or not

is funny to see so many nerds that fucking worshiped the dude 4 years ago (the sheltered man children of Reddit were ready to get down on both knees for the dude) to outright hating him now though. 

 
MonkeyNoise

Since Elon has become a politicized figure it's hard to tell if the headlines about Twitter or legitimate or not

is funny to see so many nerds that fucking worshiped the dude 4 years ago (the sheltered man children of Reddit were ready to get down on both knees for the dude) to outright hating him now though. 

Now it’s the MAGAs getting on their knees for the guy. What a time to be alive 

 

1. Why the hell did they need 10k employees for a web page and app? Did their previous leadership understand anything?  

You can run twitter with 1,000 employees. It hasnt materially changed in 15 years. It's a timeline, profile page, and now (spaces). Whoopdeefuckingdo. Twitter was the way Democrats and governments pushed their propaganda and now they are mad Elon wont do that. That's literally all this is. Who cares if it succeeds or not? If it doesnt, you wont notice unless you're getting paid to push propaganda like well-known lefty-blue-checkmark accounts lmao

 

1. Why the hell did they need 10k employees for a web page and app? Did their previous leadership understand anything?  

My head hurt from reading this sentence.  What kind of an engineer are you?  Hopefully something like civil so you have an excuse for being so confidently wrong.

 

Yeah it’s a web page that looks simple and dumb with limited number of features. But users and activities are in millions simultaneously. The app is not just for you. It’s called distributed system. Running the website on 10k employees ? Yeah, then don’t count on any new feature delivery and improvements. And if ten millions users are online at the same time, the app will break down and no one can save it as the good engineers are gone. 

 

What makes you see Twitter as net negative? Do you think mostly all social media apps are net negative?

 

anonguytoibd

 "Big tech" Silicon Valley software engineers are the most coddled, egotistical, and entitled employees who have benefited the most as W2 workers from a decade long plus bull market and low rates.

You know, I never understand what is so hard for finance guys to undersand here. This is literally Econ 101. Supply and demand. Big Tech SWE's have a skills that a lot of employers want. So naturally they get paid more and have a decent WLB. There's nothing "entitled", "egotistical" or any of the other nonsense you put forth. They are getting the equilibrium wage for their skillset.

It's the same as the employers who whined "No one wants to work!" a year ago. COL increased, and hence the equilbrium wage for someone to do a job increased as well. Yet employers who still stuck to $10/hr using rent prices from a decade ago, failed to accept supply and demand when it hurt them. 

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I agree in general, but what all these tech layoffs might show is that the marginal employees they are throwing off are less productive than what they cost. If that's the case, it means that the demand for SWEs from big Techcos were inflated. It might actually be better for the economy in the aggregate anyway since those people might be more productive somewhere else - my IO professor speculated once that Big Tech hogs talent to stave off competition. They could afford to when shareholders looked over bloat because the online ad market was growing by 15% per annum. 

For a company like Twitter which has been sideways since IPO and negative cashflowing with sluggish growth, being bloated is even less excusable. The amount of dilution from SBC alone was pretty outrageous.

 

It's difficult to take the people seriously that complain about "coddled" engineers and how easy it should be to maintain a site saying that only a few hundred employees are needed.  You can have a legitimate discussion without revealing your obvious disdain/ignorance for the tech industry.

My take on it as someone likely more in tune with the tech industry than most here(tech target school, have worked in data science and product roles, etc):

There have been some very questionable decisions so far, that seem like obvious mistakes.  Cutting headcount isn't necessarily bad, but the way it has been done has been.... misguided to put it charitably.  Lots of talented people are leaving, and in fact the lazy ones are the ones that are going to stay and try and skate by because they will have a harder time jumping ship.  Now, it may all work out in the end, but clearly this whole twitter fiasco has been a mistake on Musks part so far (I mean.... he didn't even want to buy the company, it was supposed to just be a troll that then backfired.)

 

anonguytoibd

s. To sum it up, there is a ton of opportunity for productivity and efficiency, and that's what Elon is trying to solve for. There is a sizable percentage of people only working 15-30 hours a week with BSD attitudes. Many of these people have second jobs - I know three of them and I suspect many of our engineers and product people were doing the same before we did layoffs recently.

There's a far jump from people managing to handle 2 remote jobs concurrently and Elon pushing for full in-person work that is 80 hours/week. Very few people find 80 hours to be normal outside of directly client facing industries such as IB and consulting, and startups. He's going to lose a lot of talent doing this. Supply and demand cuts both ways here, if he puts his salary and hours well below the equilibrium, he's going to get less talented, desperate workers, which is not what you need when you are trying to revamp one of the world's largest social media platforms. 

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Pretty sure it's not trading, the only public info was that the banks shopped to institutions at that price. No indication of whether anyone took them up on it either. 

 

Far far too early to declare disaster.

I don't think Elon is playing 4d chess but I do believe he has more of a plan than what comes out in the media. Yes the company is in an extremely public rough patch but things will settle down, assuming he can keep his own tweets in check (no pun intended). The deluge of inappropriate posts we've seen recently from the community will either fade or be censored. Subsequently, as long as there are eyeballs the ad money will come back.

On the ultimatum, the media is sensationalizing what in fact are quite normal expectations. The guy needs to clean house. He could have done it in a more careful way that drew less attention, but whatever, it's his company. He can surely find plenty of new troops if he needs them. Might cost more but will also work harder.

 

I doubt it is going to be over. It just isn’t going to be considered as ‘official.’ If anything it will likely be slightly less moderated and ran with a smaller staff. Any remaining employees are probably the top performers and they may have a normal work load.

Only two sources I trust, Glenn Beck and singing woodland creatures.
 

His vision for the platform is good but his execution has been excessively chaotic thus far. Axing the teams that were either useless or actively evil on day one made sense ("human rights", curation, public policy etc.) but there's no way the broader cuts didn't bite key engineering staff. And the "hardcore" letter was very stupid - I don't know why you wouldn't just take the package and run, regardless of what you think about Musk. He came in guns blazing when he easily could have done things more thoughtfully and gradually. Not the right approach when credit markets are garbage and the company has a meaningful debt burden to deal with.

That said, it doesn't seem like Twitter has broken yet

 

I have hardly followed it at all. But I would think if the company is running with these massive layoffs then he would be in good shape as he has already saved a ton of money from firing all the people. Been hearing people talking about it breaking and that is the main risk but i mean seems to be working fine so far 

 

Some veeery interesting elements that maybe PE guys should take note of:

- 90%(!) of Twitter staff is fired, basically anyone who can't prove to be a good coder. This brings up the hilarious meme of the lonely coder in a room full of women who do ''other stuff''. Indeed, gender distribution at Twitter is now something like 95% men, mostly Asians (of all types, East, Indian, Middle-East). The ''other stuff'' departments have been all axed, starting with the liar in Chief Vijaya Gadde who was fired on day 1.

- Little to no changes in performance. The site is running just fine.

- Activists tried to make a deal with Musk, accepting a ''diverse viewpoint moderation team'' in exchange of not launching boycotting campaigns. In the most typical liberal fashion, they launched boycott campaigns regardless, Musk called off the deal and fired Yoel Roth.

- 20% of the staff was going to the office, costing 400$ each a meal.

This is an amazing evidence of things people complained about for years: social activists are a colossal drain on companies, produce nothing of value while only increasing costs in terms of headcount and infrastructure. Woke ideology is not good for business.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

Correct. This is ironically a case study every single business school should go through... except that they forfeited their educational role long ago. Nonetheless, industry changing moment. If you are an investor in tech and the company isn't making money, demand they pull an Elon.

No more bs content and tik tok influencers as employees.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

This guy is cheering on thousands of people getting laid off of high paying jobs and the remainder having to work twice as many hours for the same pay because he thinks it will make them vote for the red team.  Bro get some fresh air.

And where were all these new black, Hispanic, and Asian red voters in the polls last election?  Horrible economy and horrible presidential approval rating and the red team still blew it.  Should have been the easiest election in decades for them.

 

It should have been a layup but we're in the post mail-in voting era. The rootless parasites that control the Democrat party (people like SBF and Soros) can funnel in millions to harvest every last low information vote, and they have months to do it. The mindset the right needs to have is something like "The left has already killed democracy, but how do we save our civilization?"

 

Most of the engineers (aka the people who create value) are staying, at least the good ones that add real value. Everything has an 80/20 rule at the end of the day. Listen to the latest All-In podcast episode, those guys make an interesting point that tech companies for well over a decade have absorbed surplus elite (i.e. the woke college-educated English or Social Justice majors who have 0 marketable skills) into these non-technical roles (product manager, operations, HR, etc). What really threatens the left is that if Elon can show you can run a lean tech company and high profitability / high innovation, then there's nowhere for these woke surplus elites to go. People accept 35-40% OM at Google / FB because that is so much better than most businesses....but what if these businesses should realistically be doing 50-60% OM?

If this is proven out in a high profile way (i.e. Twitter) -- which I have no idea if it will -- the market will force this efficiency. Activist investors (as we see with Google / Facebook already), Private Equity (buyouts and forcing rationalization), new Entrepreneurs running leaner & hungrier enterprises with bigger tech company engineers working 50-70hrs a week instead of 30-35 very often today, etc. And so all of these completely useless folks who think subscribing to woke ideology will get them a good career will realize it offers no real protection...and this opens the floodgates to potentially either a) not vote blue or b) vote red (both Hispanics and Blacks -- along with 1st gen Asian Americans -- are increasingly voting red).

 

bigger tech company engineers working 50-70hrs a week

I don't see this ever happening as long as the VC/startup scene is strong (and it will be as equities are taking a downturn). Big Tech jobs are not the highest paying jobs for SWEs. Startups pay more, give more equity but you work longer hours. Big Tech has always sold itself as cushier and stable. Salaries *may* go down in Big Tech, but the hours are definitely not changing else they will bleed talent like crazy. I mean if I was smart enough to be one of those guys with a dozen side projects and I had to work 70 hours a week, I might as well go get an MBA and create my own startup. No point working day and night for crumbs when you can build/do something better on your own. Tech is very unique in that there are low capital requirements to start and low barriers to entry, and I think people fail to recognize that when they drive the "efficiency" point home. If you push people too far, they will be your competition next.  

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Twitter is one of the largest social media platforms in the world. It's an aircraft carrier not a battleship, it doesn't just turn on a dime like many people seem to think. Musk seems to be taking a lets try this and see what happens approach with various changes (checkmarks and whatnot) and when it goes wrong everyone starts to shout "this is the downfall of twitter", and it doesn't help that most "journalists" have it out for him so the headlines are generally not going to be great regardless. He's been at the helm for less than a month so it's way too early for anyone to speculate whether twitter will fail, in 6 months we'll have a better view of the state of the company.

 

For real, it's all just static and noise from this monumental change at the moment. "Twitter is dead" chants are premature and will be super interesting 

I suspect EM is going to experiment, take different approaches, try features etc. I'm no fan of the man, but goddamn, imagine being able to do that with such a shiny and expensive toy.

 

It’s just sh^tlibs seething that they’re losing control of one of their propaganda outlets. Their ideology is reliant on careful information control and suppression of inconvenient facts and viewpoints. Nobody naturally arrives at the conclusion that women can have a d^ck or 1,000 other transparently dumb lib views. Maintaining them requires harsh enforcement which Musk is removing.

I for one welcome the army of frog avatars rising from the suspension grave to drag libs back to reality 

 

Even if you view it as a political move and not a business move, it's still a massive failure imo.  He spent 44 billion to bring back banned right wing accounts and by far the largest and most important banned right winger, Trump, snubbed him and didn't even come back.  If he spent even a little of that money on the midterms he may have tilted it in the favor of the right (the largest donor this time around was Soros with 125 million)

 

To your last point about a shift in work culture - will ignore the Twitter point for now. The short answer is yes, Gen Z'ers have been surveyed for a few years now as the first generation in the work place (oldest being around 25) to prioritize work life balance, hybrid options, flexibility and of course companies who show they have a benevolent "purpose". I think the last point is a sack of shit, but more and more high skilled workers coming out of college are going to demand WFH flexibility / push back against typical grind culture.

I think Elon Musk's dramatic "Twitter 2.0" heavy hand was childish and likely pissed away many employees because he came in like he was going to run the company like an angry tyrant working his serf labor to death instead of positioning himself as the champion of the Twitter brand looking to inspire the talent to build a new, better and more impactful Twitter. With younger generations the core of it is optics - I bet if Elon Musk came in smiling the Cheshire Cat he would've charmed most of the employees and advertises to stick around and could've made the greatest turnaround story in tech history. His outbursts and complete lack of social politics (as shitty as they are - they are important to Twitter's main revenue source) is what will plunder the company.

 

Gen Z'ers have been surveyed for a few years now as the first generation in the work place (oldest being around 25) to prioritize work life balance, hybrid options, flexibility and of course companies who show they have a benevolent "purpose". I think the last point is a sack of shit, but more and more high skilled workers coming out of college are going to demand WFH flexibility / push back against typical grind culture.

This is all irrelevant here. Yes, Gen Z has slight cultural differences, but that doesn't explain why Twitter is failing. The fact is is that the salary they would be getting paid relative to the hours is laughable for SWE roles especially adjusted for Bay Area COL. SWEs of that talent can get a job anywhere and even if they take a compensation hit in a LCOL city, their money will go further and purchasing power will be at parity. 

Big Tech culture is very different from finance culture in that there is no real concept of "prestige" when it comes to employer or city and they aren't as into nightlife/entertainment like finance people are so both the employer and city are largely irrelevant to them. As a result tech is an extremely elastic market, especially for those with skill and tenure is typically short (until stock vests). If you increase hours or decrease pay your staff will leave period. City, company, and boss (Musk) are all totally irrelevant. 

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I mean, because this was a quick post I omitted this, but my entire argument is undergirded by the fact that tech workers have leverage to choose higher paying jobs at will for their hours worked. Most SWEs are under the age of 34, which makes sense considering the main firms known for their cushy perks in tech went into hyper growth hiring mode after 2005 (tech culture in the 90s was way more grind-y like traditional jobs). The ability to compare pay amongst peers and use that as leverage to immediately jump ship for a higher paying job is a relatively new ability for workers. “Big Tech culture” as we know is driven mostly Gen Z culture / young millennial culture with legacy tech firms (like Google) updating their benefits over time to compete for new graduates.

I agree that prestige isn’t as huge a factor in big tech culture vs. finance, but to say it’s completely irrelevant is disingenuous. Same thing for city - people optimize for SF/NYC in their 20s vs living somewhere like Minnesota even if the COL is much lower - not all SWE jobs are fully remote for this to be truly irrelevant. Also, Google and Meta consistently pick from the cream of the crop because having “Ex-Googler” or “Ex-Meta” on your resume makes you incredibly more attractive for secondary exits / getting funding for a startup - so no new grads aren’t purely optimizing for compensation just like how some bankers choose GS over a higher paying MM firm.

Furthermore, “company loyalty” is not a concept for Gen Z’ers - there’s no reason to stick it out at a company for 25 years for a tenure badge of honor like it was back in the day, in fact it’s advised to job hop every couple years to keep pay high, which is a relatively new cultural phenomenon thanks to the internet making it really easy to compare something that used to be taboo to speak about in the open (which benefits employers who lowball their employees).

It’s a chicken or the egg situation. Is Big Tech elastic as it is because companies compete for limited young millennial / Gen Z talent via high wages/perks? Or are Gen Z’ers the first generation with this limited skill set / pay transparency which allows them to leverage this amongst tech companies forcing them compete with another?

 
IncomingIBDreject

Big Tech culture is very different from finance culture in that there is no real concept of "prestige" when it comes to employer or city and they aren't as into nightlife/entertainment like finance people are so both the employer and city are largely irrelevant to them. 

That is a complete crock of shit, FAANG are the BB of tech and it is 100% prestige culture same as finance.

 

Can confirm that SWEs at Twitter are furious at Elon and everyone thinks this guy is an alien devil who is running the company like a tyrant does.
 

But a lot of SWEs are devil-believers and they decide to join Twitter at this point to gamble on huge valuation growth.Twitter either makes it and produce a new batch of equity-based millionaires, or fail in 6 months and then those SWEs are just going back to their ex-employer.
 

So it’s very hard to say whether Twitter will make it. People in tech are fans of good wlb, but when it comes to huge equity growth and opportunities to make millions over-night, they are willing to become crazy work machines for the big bucks

 

What would Twitter's value drivers be without advertising? Their last 10K says they got 89% of their revenue from advertising, and a recent report on the news says they've lost half of their top 100 advertisers. I also feel like many advertisers are probably waiting until after the Christmas holiday shopping season before they pull their ads from Twitter. 

Forget the fact that Twitter might be pulled from the app stores. With just the ad issue alone, how could Twitter be profitable without its ad revenue? Their 2021 operating income was negative, and their 2020 figure wasn't much better. It's clear Elon Musk overpaid for Twitter, so I can't see how he could ever make a profit, especially considering how much the Blue Check campaign backfired. I'm not sure if he ever intended to make a profit, but if he did intend to, I can't see how he would. 

I really hope Twitter doesn't go under. It's the social media for public speaking. Worst case, they'd restructure or someone would replace them, but still. I also really loved Elon Musk as a kid and used to see him as the real Tony Stark. I didn't really think poorly of him until he called the Thai cave rescuer a pedo even while Elon's own solution clearly wouldn't work. I still had a lot of respect for him until the past month when it seems like he has completely lost it. 

I also wonder how this will affect Tesla, given how much Elon's public image is tied to their valuation, they're definitely doing much better on fundamentals though compared to in 2019, before the stock boom. 

 

Of course you can’t say anything and nobody expected it to become 4chan. But broadly light-touch regulation for low profile people coupled with erratic and inconsistent regulation for high profile people driven by the whims of an eccentric billionaire beats the fvck out of the prior system (enforcing a dumb ideology for an evil regime).

 
GeorgSorosFinanceMaster

Elon just banned Kanye for posting anti-Semitic content just weeks after unbanning him.  I still don't get what Elon's views on the whole free speech thing are.  Can you say anything on Twitter or not?  

Prior to Elon's massive balls move you're only allowed to say stuff on twatter if you're a leftist ideologue. Idk why this is so hard to understand. That's why they banned Trump, InfoWars, countless distinguished doctors, someone feel free to continue the list. 

 

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